NBA Best First Basket Bets Today – April 30

Tonight’s NBA Playoff action features two contests, and we’ve made predictions for the first basket scorer in each game.

Golden State and Minnesota lead their respective series 3-1 and have a chance to close out Houston and Los Angeles (Lakers).

The Warriors were the betting favorites entering the series, despite being the No. 7 seed, against the Rockets, the No. 2 seed. 

The Lakers (No. 3) were favorites and widely expected to advance in this series after acquiring mega star Luka Doncic on Feb. 1 from the Dallas Mavericks.

Last night featured the Celtics and Pacers each closing out their series 4-1 against the Magic and Pacers.

Boston won convincingly 120-89 behind 35 points from Jayson Tatum (also recorded 10 assists), and Indiana escaped in overtime 119-118 thanks to 26 points and a game-winning layup from Tyrese Haliburton with 1.1 seconds remaining in overtime.

Denver defeated Los Angeles (Clippers) 131-115 to take a 3-2 series lead, and Detroit narrowly beat New York 106-103 to cut the deficit to 3-2.

Jamal Murray poured in 43 points, and Nikola Jokic recorded a triple-double for the Nuggets. 

Cade Cunningham (24 points) and Ausar Thompson (22 points) led the way for the Pistons.

Our picks for tonight’s matchups feature Lebron James (LAL vs. MIN, 10:00 p.m. ET) and Jalen Green (HOU vs. GS, 7:30 p.m. ET).

Remember to wager responsibly and carefully monitor your bankroll by not spending too much of it on one bet.

Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.

LeBron James (+800) at bet365

The 21-year NBA veteran failed to crack the 25-point average during the regular season (24.4) for the first time since his rookie season.

So far in the playoffs, the power forward has managed to bring that number up to 26.3 points per game and is the second leading scorer behind Luka Doncic (30.8).

In the past two games against the Wolves, he has managed to post 27 and 38 points while averaging 16.8 field goal attempts during the series.

During the regular season, the four-time NBA Champion recorded a first-basket rate of 10%, which isn’t astronomically high, but he did account for 17% of the Lakers’ first field goals.

With this being an elimination game, the 40-year-old should come out even more aggressive in hopes of keeping his team alive.

Los Angeles center Jaxson Hayes has won the opening tip in three of the four games against Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert, making it likely the Lakers will start with the first possession.

Hayes won the opening tip 65% of the time during the campaign compared to the Frenchman Gobert (58%).

The Lakers also scored first in 55% of their games, compared to the Timberwolves’ 49%.

According to BestOdds first basket stats, James’ opponent, Minnesota, surrendered first baskets to opposing power forwards more than any other position (35%) in its last 20 games and 29% of the time during the regular season.

Certain bookmakers, such as FanDuel, feature James as the fourth-favorite to score first tonight behind Doncic (+550), Anthony Edwards (+550) and Julius Randle (+700).

At +800 odds on bet365 to score first, there is value compared to every other book listing him at a worse price, even as low as +625 at Hard Rock Bet.

Odds Comparison for Lebron James First Scorer

Sportsbook	Odds
bet365	+800
FanDuel	+700
DraftKings	+700
Caesars	+700
Hard Rock Bet	+650

Note: BetMGM is offering James (+700) and Green (+675) to score the first field goal, meaning free throws do not count. The operator is also giving refunds to selections who score the second field goal of the contest, should they fail to make the first.

Jalen Green (+800) at FanDuel or bet365

The shooting guard has endured a slow start to the playoffs with single-digit scoring in three of his four outings. 

It’s important to remember that Green was Houston’s leading scorer during the regular season, averaging 21 points per game. 

This number has dipped in the playoffs, but it is a small sample size compared to the 82 he played in the regular season, and he’s still second on the team (15.5 points per game) behind Alperen Sengun (22.3).

Throughout his last 20 games, Green has scored two first baskets (10%) and scored 20% of Houston’s first baskets. He’s also taking 20% of the first shot attempts for the Rockets.

During the regular season, and in the past 20 games, Green’s opponent, the Warriors, have surrendered first baskets (30% of the time) to shooting guards, more than any other position.

The 2021 No. 2 overall pick has been cold in his last two contests away to Golden State but might benefit from returning home.

In his last start at the Toyota Center in Game 2, Green scored 38 points and shot 52% from the field with 25 shot attempts.

Houston center Alperen Sengun (6-foot-11) will face Draymond Green (6-foot-6) for the opening tip and holds a massive height advantage.

The pair are 2-2 against each other in tipoffs during the series, but Sengun reached the ball in Game 1 before Green and accidentally hit it into the hands of his opponent, Brandin Podziemski.

Houston has scored the first points in 59.3% of contests this campaign compared to Golden State (43.7%).

Green’s odds of +800 to score first at FanDuel or bet365 are a bargain, with every other bookmaker featuring him with more juice.

He is the fifth-favorite to score behind Sengun (+410), Steph Curry (+600), Amen Thompson (+650) and Jimmy Butler (+650).

Odds Comparison for Jalen Green First Scorer

Sportsbook	Odds
FanDuel	+800
bet365	+800
Caesars	+750
DraftKings	+750
Hard Rock Bet	+650