Which Coach Leads the ‘Most Improved’ Team?

Awards voting is a little like the NFL Draft. The difference is that teams know who they like at the top of the draft and those outcomes are possibly knowable.

And there also are models that look back at what has happened in ways that can be predictive.

Looking back at Coach of the Year winners we see that the award is not identifying who is the best coach.

It’s not even generally an award for the coach of the best team.

So what is it?

To get an answer, I put together a simple chart, noting every winner, the team wins the year the coach won the award and the team wins the year before the coach won the award.

I also noted the number of times a coach has won.

Profiling Coach Of The Year Winners

There have only been three repeat winners.

So while John Harbaugh is a contender, it’s doubtful that the 2019 winner will repeat.

One of the three repeat winners (Bruce Arians) did win twice in three years but for two teams.

Harbaugh is coaching the same team, as well as one that advanced to the postseason in 2022.

The narrative here is usually a coach that greatly improved the team relative to the prior year’s wins for that team.

On average, the winning coach won 12 games and the team the year before won about six (6.34). So it’s more about the coach that had the comeback team of the year, so to speak.

In fact, it’s arguably a proxy for that.

This means that first-year coaches win a lot (because a team that wins an average of six games the prior year often fires its coach). 

That’s a big key, especially in recent voting — four of the last six winners were first-year coaches with that team (and first-year head coaches period). 

First-Year Coaches On Comeback Teams

So if there was a “comeback team of the year” for lack of an official term that was on pace to win 12 games (one that at least missed the playoffs but ideally had about six prior-year wins), case closed.

There’s your winner.

You could squint your way to backing the Lions (on pace for 11.7 wins).

But they won nine last year. So not THAT much improvement for Dan Campbell.

What about a team that could make the playoffs after being terrible in 2022, preferably with a new head coach?

Three teams potentially fit that bill — the Colts (Shane Steichen), the Texans (DeMeco Ryans) and the Broncos (Sean Payton).

These teams are all 7-6 and probably will need to finish 3-1 for their coach to win the award. Denver has won six of seven and seems to be the most likely of these teams; but Payton is a previous winner (2006). All three teams won 3-to-5 games in 2022, with the Texans winning the fewest.

So if the Lions win 12 games, they are live. If one of the Colts, Texans or Broncos wins 10 games, they are very live. But what if none of these things happen?

Then we have a mess; but someone has to win. 

This is where the voters may just give the award to the best coach on the best team, especially if they never won the award before.

That’s what happened with John Harbaugh in 2019 and Andy Reid in 2002. If that were to happen this year, the winner would be Kyle Shanahan.

The Niners are easily the best team in football and he’s generally regarded as the best coach, it’s fair to say. He’d be a first-time winner.

Current COTY Odds

Let’s list the current odds on those candidates mentioned:

• Dan Campbell (+200)
• Demeco Ryans (+300)
• Shane Steichen (+750)
• Sean Payton (+950)
• Kyle Shanahan (+1000)

Payton winning previously hurts him, but he as likely as any of the “comeback” teams to finish 3-1 (at Lions, Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders).

Yet he has the longest odds of these coaches. I hate Campbell’s status as a favorite because the Lions winning 12 games (finishing 3-1) seems unlikely given how they’re playing.

Steichen has attractive odds and a path to 3-1 (Steelers, at Falcons, Raiders, Texans).

So Payton and Steichen are the most attractively priced. I also like Shanahan’s price.

Shanahan has two paths to winning: none of the putative “comeback” teams finishes strong enough to win OR multiple comeback teams finish strong, causing voters to default to the best coach on the best team (only Shanahan).

That seems way more likely than +1000 if you believe, like I do, that the Niners likely are winning out.