Knicks, Cavs 2024’s Top Teams

Let’s see who the top teams are thus far in 2024 noting their net offensive rating according to Basketball-Reference.

We’re going to focus on January win-loss records, too, and the remaining win percentage needed relative to January to hit the over on their current season win total.

And we’ll note conference and NBA championship odds (DraftKings).

Two afterthoughts in the championship race, according to the oddsmakers, have been the best teams in January.

The Knicks have a net offensive rating of plus-16.3 points per 100 possessions and are 14-2, a decent sample of games.

The Cavs are just behind them at plus 16.1 points (10-2 through January 30th).

Here’s the entire top 10:

2024	Team	Net-ORtg	W	L	W/L%	Needed O/U win %	Diff	Champ	Conference
1	NYK	16.3	14	2	0.875	0.588	0.287	3500	1400
2	CLE	16.1	10	2	0.833	0.611	0.222	5000	1800
3	LAC	10.4	11	3	0.786	0.649	0.137	600	310
4	BOS	7.3	11	5	0.688	0.794	-0.106	300	135
5	OKC	6.6	10	6	0.625	0.657	-0.032	2000	900
6	MIN	4.9	9	7	0.563	0.657	-0.094	2000	900
7	NOP	4.8	7	7	0.5	0.571	-0.071	6000	2500
8	PHO	4.6	10	5	0.667	0.571	0.096	1200	550
9	UTA	3.9	10	6	0.625	0.455	0.170	50000	25000
10	DEN	2.1	10	4	0.714	0.706	0.008	450	220

The Knicks are +3500 to win the championship and +1400 to merely win the Eastern Conference.

Even more surprisingly, they need to go just 20-14 the remainder of the season to cash their over. They went 14-2 in January.

That .287 better in win percentage than they need to go the rest of the way for their 51 wins and the Over.

Yes, Julius Randle is out for probably a month with a dislocated shoulder. But the Knicks are one of the handful of teams that plays hard every night.

They are 21-0 against teams with losing records. They don’t take a night off.

Their trade for wing OG Anunoby has thus far been one of the best in club history. They have a wing defender who made their defense the top in the NBA in January.

The offense is much improved because Anunoby doesn’t need the ball and can stretch the defense with three-point shooting.

RJ Barrett was one of the worst starters in the NBA according to advanced metrics and the departure of Immanuel Quickly opened up playing time for Donte DiVincenzo, who has an effective shooting percentage of .613.

He and Jalen Brunson are two of only five players in the entire league for the entire season shooting at least 42% on at least six threes per game.

Additionally, the Knicks are one of the best positioned teams with expiring contracts and first-round picks to make another consequential move before the trade deadline.

And come playoff time, Mitchell Robinson in addition to Randle is expected to be healthy and active.

Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein are top defensive centers according to advanced metrics and Hartenstein since Robinson’s injury has been one of the league’s most valuable players (24th in BPM in January), one of three Knicks in the top 25 league-wide.

Healthy Cavs A Beast In The East?

The Cavs are playing well despite injuries, similar to the Knicks, but are getting back those players (Darius Garland and Evan Mobley).

Donovan Mitchell has been playing like an MVP. Here’s what he said about the team after a recent win:

“I feel like the easy thing to point to is, ‘Oh, the Cavs are winning because of Donovan.’ That’s not the case.

I think that’s the easy thing for people to say who don’t watch us play. You look at [it], on a night-to-night basis.

Sam Merrill, has been phenomenal. Craig Porter [Jr.], has been phenomenal. Jarrett Allen, Isaac Okoro. It’s not just myself. It’s not just [Darius Garland], it’s not just [Evan Mobley].”

The Cavs have to play .611 ball for the remainder of the season vs. the .833 they played in June with their injuries.

And they’re even longer shots than the Knicks in both the conference (+1800) and the title (+5000).

The most surprising team in the top 10 in net rating in 2024 is the Jazz. They are 10-6 this month even after getting smashed by the Knicks on Tuesday night.

They only have to play .455 ball the remainder of the season to hit their Over.

Overrated Clubs

The Clippers are expected to be great and they have been the third-best team in January. So there’s no value here.

The Suns are interesting in that they’ve had their best month but were still “only” the eighth-best team.

Should they be the fourth favorite to win the championship? I guess so if you believe in star power.

But can their stars stay healthy, as they’ve barely played together all season?

The Suns only have to play .571 ball to hit their Over.

The team that has to play much better to hit their Over on wins than they’ve fared in January for the remainder of the season is the Celtics.

They have to go .794 after playing .688 ball in January. They’re the fourth-best team in net rating, but nine points behind the pace-setting Knicks.

Going 27-7 seems like a very heavy lift.

Two teams that are well outside the top 10 and closer to the bottom 10 are the 21st-ranked 76ers and 20th Mavericks.

Both clubs have struggled with injuries and the status of Joel Embiid (knee) is unknown at press time.

Even if Embiid’s injury is minor, should Philadelphia be projected for more wins than the Knicks, now ahead of them in the standings and playing light years better than Philly in 2024?

The Mavericks have to go 20-15 for the Over. They’re 26-21. In January, with both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic playing, they went 2-4.

Finally, we have to address the Bucks, still one of the top conference and title favorites but below water in net-rating and just 8–7 on the month.

To hit their Over 55 wins, Milwaukee needs to go 23-12 under new coach Doc Rivers. That’s .657 ball, a 54-win pace. They were .533 in January.