2024 MLB All-Star Game And Home Run Derby | Odds & Picks
2024 MLB All-Star Game And Home Run Derby | Odds & Picks
Thomas Snodgrass
Updated: Jul 12, 2024
The 2024 MLB All-Star Game will take place at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas on Tuesday, July 16th, and the American League has opened as the betting favorite.
The best odds for the AL to win the Midsummer Classic sits at -116 on FanDuel, and the best odds for the NL can be found at BetMGM a +100.
The Philadelphia Phillies boast the most All-Star selections for the 2024 All-Star Game with a total of seven, including Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, and Trea Turner in the National League’s starting lineup, and Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm in the Junior Circuit’s pitching staff.
The National League squad also recently announced that Pittsburgh Pirates rookie flamethrower Paul Skenes will get the starting nod.
It’s quite an achievement for Skenes after just 11 big league starts, going 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA and striking out 89 batters in 66.1 innings in that time.
Other than Skenes’ dominance on the mound, different factors come into play when selecting the starter for the All-Star game, such as a pitcher’s season workload and whether a pitchers schedule lines up for their usual routine.
Some traditionalists have cried foul at the Bucs’ rookie getting first crack at the All-Star game, but frankly, I think it’s incredible to watch Skenes’ rapid ascent in the MLB.
Furthermore, it’s difficult to not give Skenes the honors after his most recent outing, firing seven no-hit innings with 11 strikeouts against the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday.
Skenes will be just the fifth rookie pitcher in MLB history to start in the All-Star game following Dave Stenhouse (WAS, 1962), Mark Fidrych (DET, 1976), Fernando Valenzuela (LAD, 1981), and Hideo Nomo (LAD, 1995).
As of this writing, the AL has yet to name their starting pitcher, but they have plenty of quality options, such as the Texas Rangers’ Max Scherzer, possibly representing the home team, Chicago White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet, or Baltimore Orioles’ ace Corbin Burnes.
Detroit Tigers’ lefty Tarik Skubal is the betting favorite to take home the AL Cy Young Award, but considering that the All-Star Game is on Tuesday, that doesn’t line up well with his routine.
Here’s a look at the available pitching staffs for both the Junior and Senior Circuits.
AL All-Star Pitching Staff
| AL | Starting Pitchers | 2024 Statistics |
| LH: | Tyler Anderson – Los Angeles Angels | 8-8, 2.81 ERA, 77 K, 112 IP |
| RH: | Corbin Burnes – Baltimore Orioles | 9-4, 2.43 ERA, 110 K, 118.2 IP |
| LH: | Garrett Crochet – Chicago White Sox | 6-6, 3.08 ERA, 146 K, 105.1 IP |
| RH: | Logan Gilbert – Seattle Mariners | 6-5, 2.94 ERA, 115 K, 125.1 IP |
| RH: | Tanner Houck – Boston Red Sox | 8-6, 2.54 ERA, 112 K, 117 IP |
| RH: | Seth Lugo – Kansas City Royals | 11-3, 2.21 ERA, 110 K, 122 IP |
| LH: | Cole Ragans – Kansas City Royals | 5-6, 3.28 ERA, 134 K, 109.2 IP |
| LH: | Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers | 10-3, 2.37 ERA, 132 K, 110 IP |
| AL | Relief Pitchers | 2024 Statistics |
| RH: | Emmanuel Clase – Cleveland Guardians | 28 SV, 0.83 ERA, 39 K, 43.1 IP |
| RH: | Clay Holmes – New York Yankees | 20 SV, 2.89 ERA, 39 K, 37.1 IP |
| RH: | Mason Miller – Oakland Athletics | 15 SV, 2.33 ERA, 68 K, 38.2 IP |
| RH: | Kirby Yates – Texas Rangers | 14 SV, 0.84 ERA, 45 K, 32.1 IP |
NL All-Star Pitching Staff
| NL | Starting Pitchers | 2024 Statistics |
| RH: | Paul Skenes – Pittsburgh Pirates | 6-0, 1.90 ERA, 89 K, 66.1 IP |
| RH: | Hunter Greene – Cincinnati Reds | 6-4, 3.34 ERA, 126 K, 110.1 IP |
| LH: | Shota Imanaga – Chicago Cubs | 8-2, 2.97 ERA, 98 K, 97 IP |
| RH: | Reynaldo López – Atlanta Braves | 7-2, 1.71 ERA, 93 K, 89.2 IP |
| LH: | Chris Sale – Atlanta Braves | 12-3, 2.74 ERA, 136 K, 105 IP |
| LH: | Ranger Suarez – Philadelphia Phillies | 10-3, 2.58 ERA, 106 K, 108 IP |
| RH: | Logan Webb – San Francisco Giants | 7-7, 3.47 ERA, 107 K, 124.1 IP |
| RH: | Zack Wheeler – Philadelphia Phillies | 10-4, 2.70 ERA, 126 K, 116.2 IP |
| AL | Relief Pitchers | 2024 Statistics |
| RH: | Ryan Helsley – St. Louis Cardinals | 31 SV, 2.41 ERA, 47 K, 41 IP |
| RH: | Jeff Hoffman – Philadelphia Phillies | 9 SV, 1.14 ERA, 49 K, 39.1 IP |
| LH: | Tanner Scott – Miami Marlins | 13 SV, 1.38 ERA, 43 K, 39 IP |
| LH: | Matt Strahm – Philadelphia Phillies | 0 SV, 1.51 ERA, 46 K, 35.2 IP |
| RH: | Robert Suarez – San Diego Padres | 22 SV, 1.72 ERA, 34 K, 36.2 IP |
Regardless of which arm the AL chooses to kick off the Midsummer Classic, the starting rosters are going to make a scoreless inning a difficult task for either side.
Here’s a look at each of the AL and NL starting players for the MLB All-Star Game.
American League All-Star Starters
| AL | Starters | 2024 Statistics |
| C: | Adley Rutschman – Baltimore Orioles | .281, 16 HR, 59 RBI |
| 1B: | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays | .287, 13 HR, 53 RBI |
| 2B: | Marcus Semien – Texas Rangers | .235, 12 HR, 50 RBI |
| 3B: | Jose Ramírez – Cleveland Guardians | .272, 23 HR, 77 RBI |
| SS: | Gunnar Henderson – Baltimore Orioles | .288, 27 HR, 61 RBI |
| OF: | Aaron Judge – New York Yankees | .304, 32 HR, 83 RBI |
| OF: | Juan Soto – New York Yankees | .297, 22 HR, 64 RBI |
| OF: | Steven Kwan – Cleveland Guardians | .361, 9 HR, 27 RBI |
| DH: | Yordan Alvarez – Houston Astros | .297, 19 HR, 51 RBI |
National League All-Star Starters
| NL | Starters | 2024 Statistics |
| C: | William Contreras – Milwaukee Brewers | .292, 10 HR, 54 RBI |
| 1B: | Bryce Harper – Philadelphia Phillies | .298, 20 HR, 58 RBI |
| 2B: | Ketel Marte – Arizona Diamondbacks | .286, 18 HR, 52 RBI |
| 3B: | Alec Bohm – Philadelphia Phillies | .292, 11 HR, 70 RBI |
| SS: | Trea Turner – Philadelphia Phillies | .348, 9 HR, 29 RBI |
| OF: | Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers | .329, 11 HR, 41 RBI |
| OF: | Jurickson Profar – San Diego Padres | .311, 14 HR, 59 RBI |
| OF: | Fernando Tatis Jr. – San Diego Padres | .279, 14 HR, 36 RBI |
| DH: | Shohei Ohtani – Los Angeles Dodgers | .314, 28 HR, 66 RBI |
Typically, starting position players will only play for a few innings before a parade of All-Star reserves get their chance to step into the All-Star limelight.
Here’s a look at the All-Star reserves as well.
AL All-Star Reserves
| AL | Reserves | 2024 Statistics |
| C: | Salvador Perez – Kansas City Royals | .279, 16 HR, 59 RBI |
| 1B: | Josh Naylor – Cleveland Guardians | .248, 22 HR, 70 RBI |
| 2B: | Willi Castro – Minnesota Twins | .268, 7 HR, 29 RBI |
| 3B: | Isaac Paredes – Tampa Bay Rays | .263, 15 HR, 50 RBI |
| 3B: | Jordan Westburg – Baltimore Orioles | .280, 15 HR, 50 RBI |
| SS: | Carlos Correa – Minnesota Twins | .310, 13 HR 47 RBI |
| SS: | Bobby Witt Jr. – Kansas City Royals | .325, 15 HR, 62 RBI |
| OF: | Jarren Duran – Boston Red Sox | .278, 10 HR, 41 RBI |
| OF: | Riley Greene – Detroit Tigers | .266, 17 HR, 48 RBI |
| OF: | Anthony Santander – Baltimore Orioles | .234, 23 HR, 57 RBI |
| DH: | David Fry – Cleveland Guardians | .288, 8 HR, 33 RBI |
NL All-Star Reserves
| NL | Reserves | 2024 Statistics |
| C: | Will Smith – Los Angeles Dodgers | .270, 15 HR, 55 RBI |
| 1B: | Pete Alonso – New York Mets | .243, 18 HR, 49 RBI |
| 1B: | Freddie Freeman – Los Angeles Dodgers | .292, 13 HR, 58 RBI |
| 2B: | Luis Arraez – San Diego Padres | .308, 2 HR, 23 RBI |
| 3B: | Ryan McMahon – Colorado Rockies | .272, 14 HR, 45 RBI |
| SS: | CJ Abrams – Washington Nationals | .271, 14 HR, 46 RBI |
| SS: | Mookie Betts – Los Angeles Dodgers | .304, 10 HR, 40 RBI |
| SS: | Elly De La Cruz – Cincinnati Reds | .250, 15 HR, 40 RBI |
| OF: | Teoscar Hernandez – Los Angeles Dodgers | .258, 19 HR, 60 RBI |
| OF: | Jackson Merrill – San Diego Padres | .285, 12 HR, 46 RBI |
| OF: | Heliot Ramos – San Francisco Giants | .300, 14 HR, 45 RBI |
| OF: | Bryan Reynolds – Pittsburgh Pirates | .277, 17 HR, 56 RBI |
| DH: | Marcell Ozuna – Atlanta Braves | .298, 24 HR, 75 RBI |
The American League has dominated the MLB All-Star Game in recent years, winning nine of the last 10, and the AL has gone 28-7 since 1988!
As impressive as that is, it seems more like a coincidence than anything really concrete behind the AL’s success, but it’s hard to ignore the numbers.
Interestingly, the NL won the 2023 edition of the MLB All-Star Game, and their other six wins have come in two separate three-game streaks in 1994, 1995, 1996, and 2010, 2011, 2012.
Once the NL cracks through, they appear to get a brief streak of their own.
One thing I am really not liking about this American League roster construction is their lack of a left-handed arm out of the bullpen. The NL has a few matchup options with Phillies’ lefty Matt Strahm and Marlins’ southpaw Tanner Scott that gives their bullpen the edge.
There are a lot of strong bats from the left side on the NL Reserves, including Freddie Freeman, Luis Arraez, Ryan McMahon, CJ Abrams, Jackson Merrill, and switch hitters Bryan Reynolds and Elly De La Cruz.
If this game is close in the later innings, the NL manager Torey Lovullo is going to have more options at his disposal than the AL’s manager, Bruce Bochy.
Everyone is looking at the power in the MLB All-Star Game. Not just the power bats and powerful arms on the field, but the star power off the field as well.
The All-Star Game is played very much like any other baseball game, and it’s a much more cerebral task, like a game of chess. As of right now, the NL has more chess pieces.
Pick: NL All-Stars Moneyline | BestOdds: +100 BetMGM
2024 MLB Home Run Derby
The odds are out for the MLB Home Run Derby winner, and the sportsbooks are favoring two-time Home Run Derby Champion, New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso. Alonso last won the derby in 2021, and will look to win his third over seven other worthwhile competitors on Monday night at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
Here’s a look at the MLB Home Run Derby contestants and where you can find their best odds to win.
| Home Run Derby Contestant | BestOdds |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | +340 Caesars |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | +460 Caesars |
| Adolis García (TEX) | +500 DraftKings |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | +550 BetMGM |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | +650 Caesars |
| Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) | +1200 bet365 |
| Jose Ramírez (CLE) | +1400 BetMGM |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | +2200 bet365 |
When looking at a potential Home Run Derby champ, the first thing I like to look at are certain park factors.
According to Baseball Savant, Globe Life Field has ranked above average in home runs hit by right-handed batters in each of the last three seasons. 100 is an average score, and anything above is, obviously, above average.
When compared to other parks Globe Life Field has a park factor home run score of 110 for righties (which is about 10% better than league average), while the home run score for lefties is just 91 (about 9% less than league average).
If a were to eliminate all lefty swingers from my betting choices, that would only remove Orioles’ shortstop Gunnar Henderson.
As talented as Henderson is, I’ll eliminate him purely on park factors.
Bye bye, Gunnar. Don’t burn me for this later.
So among this cluster of righties and the switch-hitting Jose Ramírez, who stands out?
I need to find out which hitters are hitting the ball on the barrel frequently and producing really hard contact.
Here’s a look at the Home Run Derby contestants’ average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and max exit velocity, including Henderson’s numbers.
| HRD Contestant | Avg. Exit Velo | Barrel% | Max Exit Velo |
| Alonso | 88.5 | 11.6% | 116.3 |
| Ozuna | 93.3 | 17.8% | 114.6 |
| Garcia | 91.5 | 14.1% | 116.1 |
| Henderson | 93.8 | 13.8% | 113.1 |
| Witt Jr. | 92.6 | 14.7% | 116.9 |
| Hernandez | 91.3 | 14.7% | 112.7 |
| Ramírez | 89.6 | 9.1% | 116.6 |
| Bohm | 90.4 | 8.5% | 110.8 |
Alonso is not hitting the ball like he used to, currently sporting career lows in average exit velocity and barrel percentage. That doesn’t fit a guy that has the shortest odds, in my opinion.
Alonso is out.
Ramírez has put together an amazing campaign for the Cleveland Guardians, but his barrel percentage and exit velocity are not as high as most of his competitors. Things may be worse if the switch hitter chooses to bat left-handed.
Ramírez is out.
Similarly for Bohm, he’s driving in plenty of runs and hitting for a decent average this season, but the barrels and exit velocity aren’t quite there.
Bohm is out.
Garcia is still hitting for decent pop this season, but his numbers pale in comparison to the 2023 version of Garcia, barreling the ball at 2% less in 2024. It’ll be nice for the home crowd to cheer on their guy, though.
Garcia is out.
That leaves me with Ozuna, Witt Jr., and Hernandez.
All three hitters’ power numbers are close, but Ozuna and Witt are swinging the bat at a different level than they have before, unlike Hernandez, whose bat has been steady for years. Although Hernandez is a consistent power hitter, he can’t quite match Ozuna and Witt’s upward trajectory right now.
Hernandez is out.
It’s a close call but I’m going with Witt, considering that he is hitting .469 in his first eight games in July, he is from Colleyville, Texas – – which is just 17 miles away from Globe Life Field – – and Witt has won a derby before, back in high school.
Bobby Witt Jr. (@BwittJr) wasn't about to slow down in the second round. The @OU_Baseball commit homered on 11 of his first 12 swings, including 7 straight, to raise his total to 26, to take 1st. Watch live: https://t.co/tzRojbGzUX pic.twitter.com/Cw4swwqEvA
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 15, 2018
Witt Jr. will be the 2024 Home Run Derby champ.
Pick: Witt Jr. To Win Home Run Derby | BestOdds: +650 Caesars
All-Star NRFI Or YRFI?
In the history of the MLB All-Star Game — dating back to 1933 — the NRFI has gone 49-44, and from 1933 to 1989 it was at an even split of 30-30; going 19-14 since 1990.
When looking at the potential lineup construction for the 2024 All-Star Game, the National League could kick the action off in the top of the first with the Dodgers’ current leadoff hitter, Shohei Ohtani.
According to NRFI PRO, Los Angeles has an offensive NRFI percentage of just 63%, the second-lowest mark in the MLB, and Ohtani is a big reason why the Dodgers have produced so much first inning offense and early run scoring opportunities.
Before placing any NRFI or YRFI wagers on the Midsummer Classic, be sure to check out the NRFI data and insights available on NRFI PRO and BestOdds’ NRFI Stats Page.
All lines are subject to change.
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