Michigan Sign-Stealing Investigation, Moore Facing Suspension
Before games even begin, the Michigan Wolverines Football team is back in the spotlight in all the wrong ways. New head coach Sherrone Moore has been pulled in as one of many members of the former and current coaching staff to commit violations in the program’s ongoing sign-stealing scandal.
Moore’s name came up when reports claimed he allegedly deleted 52 text messages between himself and former Michigan analyst Connor Stalions, who has been pointed to as the primary face and orchestrator behind the Wolverines’ alleged sign-stealing initiatives. The text messages were deleted on the same day that reports came out about Stalions in October of 2023.
This would be a Level II violation by Moore that could land him a suspension. How long that suspension is and who the interim would be could have implications on Michigan’s record in the regular season and their chances of making the playoffs in 2024.
How should current and potential Michigan bettors approach this situation when making their wagers on the defending champs? Let’s explore.
Making The Playoffs, At All
With the newly expanded College Football Playoff, bettors will have to adjust how they perceive value for every team, not just Michigan.
FanDuel currently has Michigan’s odds to make the playoffs at +150, while DraftKings has it set at +115. If you believe in Michigan fully and believe in it no matter what, FanDuel is the way to go.
Many of the teams around Michigan in odds are not in the Big Ten, so bettors who believe in the Wolverines will need to justify that Michigan can immediately navigate its way through their new-look conference.
| Team | FanDuel – Odds To Make CFP | DraftKings – Odds To Make CFP |
| LSU | +125 | +120 |
| Florida State | +160 | +140 |
| Missouri | +180 | +175 |
| Tennessee | +195 | +195 |
| Clemson | +200 | +190 |
All other teams in the Big Ten either have odds that are so high that they’re not worth investing any value into, or are viewed as long shots that might not be able to hold their own against the now even heavier top of the conference. This puts Michigan as the only team that fits into the sweet spot or middle ground, making them an even more enticing bet.
To not MAKE the playoffs, Michigan currently sits at -188 on FanDuel and -165 on DraftKings. If you don’t need to hear anything else about the potential suspension of coach Moore to bet against the Wolverines, then DraftKings is the place for you. This also might be a waiting play – Michigan plays the Texas Longhorns in Week 1 on Sept. 7. If Michigan wins, their odds for missing the postseason may go down and give skeptics more room for profit.
New Faces, New Foes
Winning the Big Ten would guarantee a birth in the College Football Playoff for the Michigan Wolverines. But getting there will be an uphill battle as the conference adds four new high-level programs to the mix: the Oregon Ducks, Washington Huskies, USC Trojans, and UCLA Bruins.
| Team | FanDuel – Odds To Win Big Ten | DraftKings – Odds To Win Big Ten |
| Ohio State | +155 | +155 |
| Oregon | +200 | +200 |
| Penn State | +500 | +500 |
| Michigan | +750 | +700 |
| USC | +2500 | +2200 |
| Iowa | +3300 | +4000 |
Michigan winning the Big Ten likely means they’ll have to beat three key opponents: Washington on Oct. 5, Oregon on Nov. 2, and Ohio State on Nov. 30. Their likelihood of doing so depends greatly on the presence of Moore – not just if he’ll be suspended this season, but when that suspension would take place.
If the NCAA makes an unlikely swift decision on Moore’s suspension and takes him out for the first three games of the season, there’s less cause for panic for Michigan bettors. Two of Michigan’s early opponents are the Fresno State Bulldogs on Aug. 31 and the Arkansas State Red Wolves on Sept. 14. Those are both games that Michigan is expected to win quickly and dominantly, with or without Moore on the sidelines.
As for Texas, the Longhorns are favored anyway – many believe that that’s a loss for the Wolverines regardless of the coach as Texas is favored by -3.5 on FanDuel.
If Moore’s suspension comes later or is longer – overlapping with opponents like Oregon, Washington, Ohio State, or even USC – then there will be more cause for panic when the committee uses head-to-head results as tiebreakers to decide who gets put into the playoffs.
Winning The Big One
The Michigan Wolverines are currently tied for the 11th-highest odds on FanDuel to win the National Championship at +3000.
Using logic, if the Wolverines are in the final game of the year, it means they made the playoff. And if they made the playoffs, it means they got there because they’re good enough to beat the best teams in the Big Ten, with or without Moore. If you can beat Oregon, you can probably beat whoever you need to beat to win the title game.
So, if you like Michigan to make the bracket at +150, then you might as well sprinkle in the chance to win 30 times your money.