NCAA Football Takeaways Week 10

The Washington Huskies allowed 42 points against the USC Trojans in Week 10, but the Huskies’ offense was still able to score 52 points of their own, winning by 10.

While Michael Penix Jr. has been all the rage, currently with the shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy at +150 at BetMGM, it was Washington’s running back Dillon Johnson who stole the show in Los Angeles.

Johnson picked up 256 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 26 carries, and Johnson’s rushing yards total matched the passing yards total of 256 yards from Penix.

Considering that Penix’s passing yards prop was set at 383.5 yards on FanDuel, it was an impressive showing for Johsnon.

DILLON JOHNSON IS GONE 🔥
pic.twitter.com/fa0IMAw7g7

— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 5, 2023

Despite the rather pedestrian outing for Penix, he’s all but guaranteed to be in New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony on December 14th.

You can read more about the latest Heisman Trophy odds here.

The defense of the Huskies has been a concern at times, allowing 32 or more points in four of their last six games.

The points allowed to opponents may hinder their chances of leapfrogging another program to get into the four-team College Football Playoff picture.

With Florida State at No. 4, the Huskies may need to play better defense if they intend to jump the ACC-favorite Seminoles.

The final three games for Washington will be against the No. 18 Utah Utes, No. 16 Oregon State Beavers, and Washington State Cougars.

Washington’s defense is allowing 23 points per game, and in their last six games, they are allowing 28.5. Thankfully, Arizona State only recorded seven points against the Huskies, keeping Washington’s defensive scoring number below 30 points in this recent stretch.

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee may not feel inclined to give the Huskies a chance to be in the final four if their defense is playing poorly, but with a potential loss coming from one of the higher-ranked programs would make that voting decision a little easier.

No. 1 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan play on November 25th, and someone has to lose, possibly propelling Washington into the playoff picture.

Submitted For Your Approval

There is one program that has a rich history, with four National Championships, and has been ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings six times since the inception of the modern playoff system in 2014-15.

A team that has yet to make the final four in the current edition of the College Football Playoff, with their best result, finishing just outside the Top-4, sitting at No. 5 in 2016-17.

Submitted for your playoff approval: the No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions.

Penn State has had a series of turbulent and misery-laden years, and on just one occasion, finding themselves knocking on the door of the College Football playoff, only to go unanswered and left out in the January cold.

The Nittany Lions’ hold a record of 8-1, the lone blemish coming from the hands of the No. 1-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes.

Not a huge loss for Penn State, just a one-possession, eight-point casualty that has briefly squandered the Nittany Lions’ aspirations.

While the path to the playoff has become more jagged, the aim is the same: to be selected to the College Football Playoff.

The rocky road ahead for Penn State could potentially be smoothed out over the coming weeks, with their matchup against the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines this Saturday as the utmost pothole-filler.

An upset victory over Michigan as +4.5-point underdogs would certainly vault the Nittany Lions to the top of the CFP Selection Committee’s collective mind.

Penn State is third in the NCAA in points allowed per game (12.5), second in total yards allowed per game (246.3), first in rushing yards allowed per game (55.9), and first in turnover margin per game (+1.8).

While their offense is not making very many headlines, the Nittany Lions’ defense is capable of stealing the headlines away from other teams.

Although, Penn State did just score 51 points against the Maryland Terrapins in Week 10.

Highlights: Penn State 51, Maryland 15 pic.twitter.com/QrjzpGBkss

— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) November 5, 2023

At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Nittany Lions have the ninth-shortest odds to win the CFP Championship, currently sitting at +10000.

The odds for Penn State to win it all provide much more value than some teams currently ahead of them, such as the Texas Longhorns (+1500).

If the Nittany Lions can upset the Wolverines at Happy Valley on Saturday, Penn State’s chances of making the playoff, and their odds to win the National Championship, are going to skyrocket.

Is Ohio State Still No. 1?

In Week 10, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights carried a two-point lead over the No. 1-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes into halftime.

Is a halftime deficit to Rutgers enough of a red flag to push Ohio State down from the top spot in the CFP rankings?

Probably not.

The Buckeyes still managed to outscore the Scarlet Knights in the second half, 28-7, and at 6-3 this season, Rutgers just may be more of a formidable foe than was to be expected.

The undefeated Buckeyes have played some stiff competition this season, with wins over then-No. 9 Notre Dame and then-No. 7 Penn State, which is more than you could say about the Michigan Wolverines or Georgia Bulldogs’ schedules.

Georgia is ranked No. 2 in the CFP rankings, and they have only played one ranked opponent all season, defeating the then-No. 20 Kentucky Wildcats on October 7th, 51-13.

Despite that large margin of victory, the Bulldogs are just 2-6-1 against the spread in 2023.

Michigan is ranked No. 3 in the CFP rankings, but have played a wildly soft schedule this season. The Wolverines have yet to play a single ranked opponent, and the best record of any opponent they’ve played is the 7-2 UNLV Rebels.

Here’s a look at Michigan’s soft schedule:

Michigan’s Opponents	Final Score	Opponent Record To Date
East Carolina	30-3	1-8
UNLV	35-7	7-2
Bowling Green	31-6	5-4
Rutgers	31-7	6-3
Nebraska	45-7	5-4
Minnesota	52-10	5-4
Indiana	52-7	3-6
Michigan State	49-0	3-6
Purdue	41-13	2-7

Somehow, as the season has unraveled, Michigan’s schedule has gotten easier. Beating average to subpar teams with a combined record of 37-44 is not exactly what I would call a resume for a champion.

The Wolverines will have their first true test at Penn State this weekend, and I like the Nittany Lions to win.

The best odds for Penn State’s moneyline over Michigan of +170 can currently be found at Caesars.

Georgia will get the benefit of the doubt, being back-to-back National Champions, but Michigan has done next to nothing to warrant a higher spot in the CFP rankings.

Ohio State may have had a bumpy first-half against Rutgers, but nothing to suggest that they are trending in the wrong direction and should be displaced as the No. 1 team in the playoff picture.

As the No. 1-ranked team, the best odds for the Buckeyes to win the National Championship is +800 on BetRivers.