NCAAF Player Prop Bets Week 11

In Week 10, Oregon Ducks’ quarterback Bo Nix recorded six total touchdowns, four through the air and two on the ground.

Nix also completed 29-of-38 pass attempts for 386 yards.

Chances are that if a bettor placed any over on Nix’s passing props last week, that bettor was a winner.

It was a Heisman-like performance for the fifth-year Senior QB, and now Nix has the second shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy at +180 on FanDuel, just behind Washington Huskies’ QB Michael Penix Jr. at +140.

With the Heisman Trophy ceremony quickly approaching, a few players may be playing for more than a late season win.

Some players, such as Nix, are fighting to win a spot in the College Football history books.

Bo Nix torched the Cal defense today:

• 29/38 (76.3%)
• 386 yards
• 6 total touchdowns
• 1 interception

He didn’t even play the whole game
pic.twitter.com/rxfClC22dH

— Ensign Gridiron (@EnsignGridiron) November 5, 2023

You can read more about the Heisman Trophy race here.

Let’s look at some player props for Week 11 of the College Football season.

Bo Nix – QB, Oregon Ducks

Nix’s strong season should continue again in Week 11, as Nix has a matchup against the USC Trojans.

Last week, USC lost to the Washington Huskies, but it wasn’t Michael Penix that put on a show, it was Huskies’ running back Dillon Johnson, who ran for 256 yards and four touchdowns.

Considering that Nix may be fighting for College Football immortality, I’m expecting him to put on a show against last year’s Heisman winner, Caleb Williams.

The Trojans passing defense has been flat out awful at times, evidenced by the recent firing of their defensive coordinator Alex Grinch.

USC has allowed some gaudy passing totals, especially amongst pass-happy teams. They allowed Arizona’s Freshman QB Noah Fifita to throw for 303 yards and five touchdowns, and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders to throw for 371 yards and four touchdowns.

It’s getting close to the Heisman ceremony, and Nix must bolster his case in a big performance with a lot of eyeballs on it.

Could Oregon running back Bucky Irving steal the show, just like Johnson did last week?

Possibly.

Caleb Williams may produce enough points to apply some pressure to the Ducks, and firing back against this rickety USC defense, I’ll take the over on Nix’s passing yards prop.

Pick: Nix – OVER 320.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-111) BetRivers

Ollie Gordon II – RB, Oklahoma State

I firmly believe that Ollie Gordon II of the Oklahoma State Cowboys is the best running back in the NCAA right now.

FBS Leader in Rushing Yards:

🤠 Ollie Gordon II: 1,224 pic.twitter.com/1uR4FRjJOS

— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 5, 2023

Gordon has six consecutive games of 120 or more rushing yards and has ten touchdowns in that same six-game span.

This week, Gordon faces the UCF Knights, and UCF has the 132nd-ranked rushing defense in the NCAA, allowing 228 rushing yards per game.

132nd out of 133 FBS teams. That’s pretty bad.

Here’s a look at how the Knight’s defense has fared against opposing running backs in their last four games:

Opponent	Running Backs	Combined Rush Yards
Kansas	Devin Neal & Daniel Hishaw	288 Yards
Oklahoma	Marcus Major & Gavin Sawchuk	145 Yards
West Virginia	C.J. Donaldson & Jahiem White	206 Yards
Cincinnati	Corey Kiner & Ryan Montgomery	227 Yards

So, arguably the worst rushing defense in the NCAA against possibly the best running back in the NCAA right now?

I’m taking the over on Gordon’s rushing yards prop, no matter how high the prop is set.

Pick: Gordon II – OVER 144.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-115) DraftKings

Tetairoa McMillan – WR, Arizona Wildcats

The Arizona Wildcats are 6-3 and they are currently No. 21 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

The passing game for Arizona has been a large factor in their surprisingly successful season.

Wildcats’ QB Noah Fifita is averaging 290.4 passing yards per game in his first five games since taking over the starting job under center.

In that same five-game span, Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan is averaging 82.4 receiving yards per game.

TETAIROA. MCMILLAN. WHAT. A. CATCH. @TMAC96795 🤯🤯🤯

📺: Pac-12 Network pic.twitter.com/EMGwmKPrYX

— Arizona Football (@ArizonaFBall) September 17, 2023

This week, the Wildcats take on one of the worst passing defenses this season, Coach Prime’s Colorado Buffaloes.

Colorado is ranked 131st in passing defense, allowing 300.7 passing yards per game, and the Buffs will likely struggle to slow down the 6’5” McMillan.

The Buffaloes have allowed eight receivers to tally 100 or more receiving yards this season, and I believe McMillan will be the ninth.

Pick: McMillan – OVER 80.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

Cade Stover – TE, Ohio State

Marvin Harrison is clearly the No. 1 target in the Ohio State Buckeyes’ receiving corps, but this week, Harrison may not need to do too much against the 3-6 Michigan State Spartans.

Michigan State has allowed a high number of touchdowns to tight ends, which makes for an interesting matchup for Ohio State tight end Cade Stover.

CADE STOVER 2x.
34-0 Lead 😈😈 pic.twitter.com/pMKONmvvCP

— Barstool Ohio State (@BarstoolOSU) October 14, 2023

The Spartans have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends, including three to Washington Huskies’ tight end Jack Westover on September 16th, and two to Michigan Wolverines’ tight end Colston Loveland on October 21st.

Stover is surprisingly the second-leading receiver on the Buckeyes at the moment, currently second on the team in receptions (27), receiving yards (429), and touchdown catches (3).

In a game that could get out of hand early, I’m expecting to see Stover make an impact in the red zone, early and often.

Pick: Stover – Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Best Odds: (+115) FanDuel