NCAA Football Week 12 Odds

The newest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings saw the Georgia Bulldogs leapfrog the Ohio State Buckeyes for the No. 1 spot.

After Georgia’s 52-17 smashing of then-No. 9 Ole Miss, and the fact that the Bulldogs have won back-to-back NCAA championships, that’s not too surprising.

The biggest potential shake up in the College Football rankings for Week 12 is the matchup between the No. 5 Washington Huskies and the No. 11 Oregon State Beavers.

Oregon State is currently set as the favorites, with a moneyline of -133 at BetRivers, and chosen as roughly 2.5 point favorites on the spread across different sportsbooks.

A loss for Washington would almost certainly push the Huskies out of the playoff picture.

Let’s take a look at some of the biggest games of the Week 12 slate for NCAA Football, and some wagering options with the best odds.

No. 10 Louisville Cardinals (+1, -105 ML) vs. Miami Hurricanes (-1, -105 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-105 | FanDuel), Under 46.5 (-110 | BetRivers)

This ACC Conference matchup is essentially a pick’em.

The Louisville Cardinals have produced a surprisingly strong 2023 season, as they currently sit at 9-1.

If not for a head-scratching loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers on October 14th, Louisville would be undefeated and staring down the barrel of an ACC Championship game against the No. 4 Florida State Seminoles.

The Cardinals success has been buttressed by a wildly effective defense that has surrendered an average of only 19 points per game (18th in NCAA), and only 315 total yards of offense per game (16th in NCAA).

For Miami, their 4-0 start, which included a win over the then-No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies, appears to have become a distant memory.

The Hurricanes have lost four of their last six games, but played admirably against Florida State last week, losing by only seven points, 27-20.

Miami has only scored 26 points in their last two games combined, and their offense has too many questions right now.

This week’s matchup against Louisville is the wrong time to be looking for answers.

Pick: Louisville Moneyline | Best Odds: (-105) BetMGM

No. 22 Utah Utes (+1, -105 ML) vs. No. 17 Arizona Wildcats (+1.5, -102 ML)

Total: Over 44.5 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 45.5 (-112 | DraftKings)

Another pick’em game, this time out west in the Pac-12 Conference.

The Utah Utes have now lost three of their last six games, but all three losses were against quality teams, Oregon State, Oregon, and Washington.

Something about the Pacific Northwest that the Utes just don’t like.

This week, Utah will square up against an Arizona Wildcats team that is trending upward, quickly.

Arizona was a 1-11 team just two short years ago, and this program has battled back into relevance in 2023.

Here’s a quick look at the Wildcats’ current four-game winning streak:

Opponent	Final Score
No. 19 Washington State	44-6 (W)
No. 11 Oregon State	27-24 (W)
No. 19 UCLA	27-10 (W)
Colorado	34-31 (W)

There are some impressive wins in that streak for this upstart Arizona squad.

The Wildcats’ offense has been the main reason for their success, largely buoyed by the recent play of freshman QB Noah Fifita; Fifita is averaging 277.7 passing yards and has a 16:4 touchdown to interception ratio in his six games as starting QB.

Arizona’s defense has been much better than average, and considering the inconsistent play of the Utes’ offense, the Wildcats could pull off a big Pac-12 win at home.

Pick: Arizona Moneyline | Best Odds: (-102) FanDuel

No. 20 North Carolina Tar Heels (+7, +220 ML) vs. Clemson Tigers (-6.5, -260 ML)

Total: Over 58 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 58.5 (-110 | bet365)

The Clemson Tigers are not quite the team they’ve been in recent years, but they did pull off an impressive victory over Notre Dame on November 4th, and then followed that with a commanding victory over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last week.

Despite all of the recent triumphs, I still believe that Clemson being favored by a touchdown over the UNC Tar Heels is a bit a reach.

North Carolina has two losses all season, against the Virginia Cavaliers and Georgia Tech.

That’s confusing.

But, the Tar Heels have not lost by more than four points in 2023, and I don’t see the Tigers being able to pull off a win by seven or more here.

Clemson is certainly the better defensive team, but UNC is much more stable on offense, currently third in the entire NCAA in total yards of offense per game (512.4), and 12th in points per game (37.8).

Drake ‘Houdini’ Maye 🪄#CarolinaFootball 🏈 #UNCommon pic.twitter.com/HgGJERVQDp

— Carolina Football (@UNCFootball) November 13, 2023

Drake Maye is averaging 314.5 passing yards per game, and he can move his offense downfield much more efficiently than the Tigers’ QB Cade Klubnik.

I trust the Tar Heels offense to hang within a touchdown.

Pick: North Carolina (+7) | Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-10, -385 ML) vs. No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers (+10.5, +350 ML)

Total: Over 58.5 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 59.5 (-112 | DraftKings)

The Georgia Bulldogs are No. 1 once again, and they will defend their newly-appointed but familiar position this week against the No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers in an SEC showdown.

The Bulldogs are 10-0 this season, but they are only 4-6 against the spread.

While a win against Tennessee seems likely, Georgia covering does not.

The Volunteers are a strong running team, averaging 211.6 rushing yards per game, which is 7th in the NCAA.

The only other team the Bulldogs faced this season with a Top-10 rushing offense was the Auburn Tigers, and that game finished with Georgia winning, 27-20.

I see similarities between that game and this one.

Sure, Georgia just smashed Ole Miss by 35 points last week, and covered their 11-point spread easily.

Ole Miss has one of the worst defenses in the SEC, and it won’t be that simple against Tennessee.

The Volunteers can kill the clock and keep Georgia’s offense off the field just enough to cover this double-digit spread.

Pick: Tennessee (+10.5) | Best Odds: (-110 | FanDuel)

UCLA Bruins (+7, +235 ML) vs. USC Trojans (-6.5, -250 ML)

Total: Over 65.5 (-105 | FanDuel), Under 66 (-112 | BetRivers)

These southern California teams may have dwindled in excitement over the last few weeks, with a combined record of 3-7 in each team’s last five games, but this rivalry will always be exciting.

UCLA hit a low-point in 2023 last week, losing to the Arizona State Sun Devils, 17-7. It was the second consecutive game that the Bruins failed to score more than 10 points.

The Bruins’ offense just doesn’t score enough points, averaging only 22.8 points per game (85th in NCAA), but their defense makes up for their offensive shortcomings, allowing only 17.4 points per game (11th in NCAA).

USC on the other hand, they’ve been dealt a difficult end of season schedule, which makes their early-season success feel like a mirage.

The Trojans have lost four of their last five games, all to ranked teams; then-No. 21 Notre Dame, then-No. 14 Utah, No. 5 Washington, and No. 6 Oregon.

These teams are built as complete opposites, UCLA is defense first, USC is offense first.

The Trojans defense has been so bad, they may actually make the Bruins’ offense look more effective.

In USC’s only win in their last five games, it was a 50-49 edging of the Cal Golden Bears.

UCLA could steal this game at the LA Coliseum.

Pick: UCLA Moneyline | Best Odds: (+235) DraftKings

No. 21 Kansas State Wildcats (-8, -300 ML) vs. No. 25 Kansas Jayhawks (+8.5, +270 ML)

Total: Over 56.5 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 56.5 (-109 | BetRivers)

Another in-state rival pits the Kansas State Wildcats and Kansas Jayhawks in a Big 12 clash!

Kansas State continues their strong season, winning four of their last five games, with the only defeat being a 33-30 overtime loss to the Texas Longhorns.

The Jayhawks had a meltdown last week against Texas Tech, scoring only 13 points and seeing quarterback Jason Bean leave the game with a head injury.

Bean is ‘probable’ to suit up in this rivalry.

The Wildcats’ offense has scored regularly, averaging 38.1 points per game (10th in NCAA), and against the Kansas’ defense that allows 27.2 points per game (65th in NCAA), scoring shouldn’t be a problem.

The Jayhawks should be able to put points on the board as well, with the return of Bean under center, and the running back tandem of Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw.

I think the Wildcats will win this game, but I like both team’s scoring chances here, and the total is under 60, which it probably shouldn’t be.

Defense in the Big 12 is not mandatory.

Pick: Over 56.5 | Best Odds: (-108) DraftKings

Florida Gators (+11.5, +350 ML) vs. No. 9 Missouri Tigers (-10.5, -417 ML)

Total: Over 58.5 (-108 | FanDuel), Under 59.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

The Florida Gators visit the Missouri Tigers this week in what could be one of the best quarterback matchups of the season.

I probably wouldn’t have said that in Week 1, but Florida’s Graham Mertz vs. Missouri’s Brady Cook is a great head-to-head.

Here’s a quick tale of the tape of these two SEC QBs through 10 games:

Graham Mertz (Florida)	Brady Cook (Missouri)
73% Completion Percentage	68% Completion Percentage
2,720 Passing Yards	2,739 Passing Yards
18 TD Passes	17 TD Passes
2 Interceptions	6 Interceptions
157.5 Passer Rating	161.3 Passer Rating
4 Rushing TD	6 Rushing TD

The biggest difference between these two offenses is that Mizzou has a true No. 1 running back in Cody Schrader.

Schrader has tallied at least 112 rushing yards in each of his last three games, and in his last outing against Tennessee, he ran for 205 yards and a touchdown and added five catches for another 116 yards through the air.

Schrader is a weapon.

Also, the Tigers may have the best receiver in the NCAA.

Step aside Marvin Harrison Jr., and make room for “Flex Luther”.

The Gators’ defense has allowed an average of 43.25 points in the last four games, including a season-high 52 points to the LSU Tigers last week.

Mizzou’s offense should be able to keep that number high in Week 12.

The Tigers will post plenty of points, but Mertz and this Florida offense should score enough points of their own to hit the over.

This is another game that could have a total set in the mid-60s. I’ll happily take the over here at 58.5.

Pick: Over 58.5 | Best Odds: (-108) FanDuel

No. 5 Washington Huskies (+2.5, +120 ML) vs. No. 11 Oregon State Beavers (-2, -133 ML)

Total: Over 63.5 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 64 (-110 | DraftKings)

This Pac-12 matchup could have the biggest impact on the College Football rankings in Week 12.

While some believe that No. 5 Washington should jump No. 4 Florida State, others believe that these teams sit where they belong.

How the Huskies perform in this game could quickly clear up the playoff picture.

All eyes will be on Michael Penix Jr. as he continues his warpath to the Heisman Trophy ceremony and the College Football Playoff.

Penix should find success this week against an Oregon State Beavers defense that is allowing 241.9 passing yards per game (82nd in NCAA).

241.9 passing yards doesn’t seem like a high average against, but Penix is far from average and could crush that number.

🙌 @UW_Football's QB Michael Penix Jr. leads with the most passing yards so far this season 💪 pic.twitter.com/FMwcidcHN9

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 14, 2023

In this high-profile matchup, Penix will probably produce a similar line to Cameron Ward of the Washington State Cougars; Ward completed 28-of-34 passes for 404 yards and four touchdowns in a win over the Beavers on September 23rd.

Washington has a Heisman-caliber quarterback, they are undefeated at 10-0, and for some reason, the Huskies are the underdogs to the 8-2 Beavers.

This will be the first game all season that Washington has been set as the betting underdog.

I have to take a swing on Penix and the Huskies as underdogs for the first time. It just doesn’t make sense to me for them to be in that position.

Pick: Washington Moneyline | Best Odds: (+120) DraftKings