NCAA Football Week 6 Odds

As we get deeper into conference play across College Football, we get some matchups that can wildly shift a team’s conference-winning hopes and playoff dreams.

In 2022, Alabama lost to Tennessee on October 15th, 52-49. The Crimson Tide’s first loss put a dent in their chance of making the playoff.

Less than a month later, LSU put the nail in Bama’s coffin, winning 32-31.

There will certainly be some playoff-altering results in Week 6 as there are some high-stakes games on this week’s slate.

Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes – Saturday 7th October

Maryland is a -20 point underdog at the Horseshoe in Columbus, and Ohio State will probably leave their home stadium as victors.

In last season’s meeting, Ohio State won 43-30, with Terps’ QB Taulia Tagovailoa keeping his squad within two touchdowns by throwing for 293 yards and two touchdowns.

Ohio State had C.J. Stroud under center last year, so the 43 points scored was not a big surprise.

Now, with Kyle McCord as QB1, I would be surprised to see the Buckeyes record 43 points this weekend.

Ohio State’s passing defense has allowed a tiny 153.7 passing yards per game, that’s second best in the NCAA.

To be fair though, they’ve only played four games thus far and the quarterbacks they have faced are Brendan Sorsby and Tayven Jackson of Indiana, Mitch Davidson and Beau Brungard of FCS-level Youngstown State, Austin Reed of Western Kentucky, and Sam Hartman of Notre Dame.

A few of those quarterbacks will keep that number low based purely on the level of competition.

I believe that Tagovailoa and this Maryland offense will keep this game within 20 points once again.

Also, the Terps are quietly second in the NCAA in turnover margin per game (+2.3).

Pick: Maryland (+20)

Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

No. 23 LSU Tigers vs. No. 21 Missouri Tigers – Saturday 7th October

The Missouri Tigers’ passing attack tandem of quarterback Brady Cook and receiver Luther Burden III has been quietly one of the best combos in the NCAA.

Here’s a look at how Cook and Burden have played in 2023:

• Cook: 105/141 (74.5%), 1,468 Yards, 11 TDs, 0 INT
• Burden: 43 Receptions, 644 Yards, 5 TDs

That’s a lot of production in just five games.

The Brady Cook/Luther Burden was on POINT today 💯 #Mizzou @lutherburden3 @qbcook12 pic.twitter.com/620cw05AS5

— Nathalie Jones (@NathalieABC17) September 30, 2023

Mizzou’s talented tandem squares up with LSU in Week 6, and they could be in line for another big game after Brian Kelly’s Tigers allowed Ole Miss to torch their defense for 706 total yards of offense last week.

In all of the 133 FBS teams, LSU’s passing defense ranks 118th, allowing 286 passing yards per game. In total defense, LSU sits at number 116.

This LSU defense is almost non-existent.

Missouri’s defense actually ranks 37th in total defense, so even though their schedule may be lighter on paper, at least they’re holding opposing offenses in check.

LSU surrendered 302 total yards to FCS-level Grambling on September 9th, while Missouri allowed just 300 total yards to a more competent opponent in Vanderbilt last week.

Mizzou is just the better team right now.

This is the last week that the names Cook and Burden float under the radar.

Pick: Missouri Moneyline

Best Odds: (+225) DraftKings

No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 3 Texas Longhorns – Saturday 7th October

The Red River Rivalry!

It’s usually a classic, except for last season’s 49-0 win for Texas.

It was far from a classic. It was like going to Turner Classic Movies and expecting to see “Sunset Boulevard”, but for some reason, “The Hot Chick” with Rob Schneider was playing.

No reason to stick around for that.

Sooners’ quarterback Dillon Gabriel did not play in the contest and Oklahoma used an embarrassing cavalcade of passers.

Starting quarterback, Davis Beville completed just six passes for 38 yards. Other players to make a pass attempt included running backs Eric Gray and Marcus Major and punter Matt Turk.

That’s funnier than any Rob Schneider movie.

Gabriel has been one the best QBs in the NCAA in 2023, completing 75.2% of his passes for 1,593 yards and 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions.

Gabriel being under center will give Oklahoma a puncher’s chance.

This will be the Longhorn’s best test since facing off with Alabama in Week 2, winning 34-24.

Texas’ quarterback Quinn Ewers jumped up the Heisman odds after the win over Bama, throwing for 349 yards and three touchdowns.

Both of the Sooners’ and Longhorns’ defenses have held opposing offenses to minimal gains, Texas allowing 290.8 yards of offense per game, Oklahoma relinquishing 319 total yards on average.

The best man under center will win this game. I think that man will be Gabriel.

Pick: Oklahoma Moneyline

Best Odds: (+215) bet365

No. 15 Washington State Cougars vs. UCLA Bruins – Saturday 7th October

Washington State’s defense is not very good, they currently sit 74th in total yards of offense allowed.

Last season, they were 92nd, so maybe there are some signs of progress?

Either way, UCLA’s offense has been up-and-down under freshman QB Dante Moore.

Moore has completed just 54.7% of his passes and has a total of -53 rushing yards, not amazing by any standard.

This appears to be a year of transition for the Bruins, with a freshman QB and a litany of transfer players entering the program.

Yet, somehow, UCLA is the favorite to Washington State on Saturday.

I believe that the Cougars starting quarterback Cameron Ward is a sleeper to win the Heisman, or at least make the Heisman ceremony.

Ward is the same man that just blistered the then-No. 14 Oregon State Beavers’ defense on September 23rd.

Cameron Ward vs OSU: 28-34, 404 yds, 4 TDs

92.0 PFF pass grade (4th out of all FBS QBs)
4 Big-Time Throws
87.9 adjusted comp%

By distance:
Behind LOS: 4-4, 3 yds
0-9 YDS: 15-19, 142 yds
10-19 YDS: 5-5, 108 yds, 2 TDs
20+ YDS: 4-5, 151 yds, 2 TDs

He's fun to watch! #Wazzu pic.twitter.com/wRlVVitd1W

— Video from: @TSV__1 (@TSV__1) September 25, 2023

The Bruins have yet to face a quarterback of Ward’s caliber this season, and it will show on Saturday.

Pick: Washington State Moneyline

Best Odds: (+150) BetMGM

No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas A&M Aggies – Saturday 7th October

The last two meetings between these two SEC foes have been settled with close final scores. A&M upset Bama in 2021, winning 41-38, and the Crimson Tide won last year, 24-20.

The spread currently sits at -2, favoring the visitors from Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have looked iffy this year, for about the first time in 10 or more years now, so this could be the time to pounce for the Aggies.

A&M losing their starting quarterback Connor Weigman hurts, but backup Max Johnson has filled in nicely.

Johnson has thrown just one interception to six touchdowns in his sample of work, and the offense does not appear to have lost a step.

For Alabama, Jalen Milroe has been their predominant signal caller, but he’s failed to perform well in Bama’s biggest games of the season so far, throwing just three touchdowns and three interceptions in contests against Texas and Ole Miss.

A&M’s defense (5th) currently ranks higher than Alabama’s (14th) in total yards allowed, but both teams have allowed under 20 points per game on average.

The Crimson Tide look wobbly, and if Texas A&M can push them over in Week 6, that would have massive implications on the SEC Conference and the College Football playoff.

Pick: Texas A&M Moneyline

Best Odds: (+115) BetMGM

No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 20 Kentucky Wildcats – Saturday 7th October

The Kentucky Wildcats picked up a big SEC win in Week 5 over the then-No. 22 Florida Gators.

Here is how the starting quarterback and running back for Kentcuky performed in that contest:

• QB Devin Leary: 9/20, 69 Yards, TD
• RB Ray Davis: 26 carries, 280 Yards, 4 TDs (1 Receiving)

Davis’ numbers will not be duplicated in Week 6 against Georgia, although Leary’s might.

Assuming that Georgia plays with a lead at some point in this game, it will be up to Leary to get Kentucky back in the ball game, and I don’t think he will.

The Bulldogs had a close call with Auburn last week, a somewhat surprising 27-20 final score, but Georgia tends to start their games slowly.

Fun fact: Georgia outscored every opponent in the second half in every game this season and outscored opponents in the second half in 12 of 15 games last year.

Last week’s win was nice for the Wildcats, but this week, the Bulldogs will push them back down into SEC Football irrelevance.

Pick: Georgia (-14.5)

Best Odds: (-105) FanDuel

No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 25 Louisville Cardinals – Saturday 7th October

Notre Dame rebounded after their close loss with the Ohio State Buckeyes, defeating the then-No. 17 Duke Blue Devils in Week 5, 21-14.

It wasn’t the most impressive showing by the Irish’ offense, with quarterback Sam Hartman completing just 50% of his passes for 222 yards and no touchdowns, and leading back Audric Estime salvaging his night with a late 30-yard scamper into the endzone.

Much like the week before against Ohio State, Notre Dame appeared to be playing too conservatively.

With all of the weapons on Marcus Freeman’s offense, you’d expect the Notre Dame head coach to take off the training wheels.

Maybe the Fighting Irish coaching staff are too cautious with play-calling when on the big stage?

Louisville picked up a scrappy win over the NC State Wolfpack last week, winning 13-10.

After creeping into the Top-25 and hosting Notre Dame, a lot more eyeballs will be on this program in Week 6.

The Cardinals defense has not looked spectacular in 2023, allowing 254.8 passing yards per game (87th in the NCAA), 113.5 rushing yards per game (36th in the NCAA), and surrendering 21.5 points per game (34th in the NCAA).

While those numbers aren’t terrible either, Louisville allowed 488 total yards and 34 points to Georgia Tech on September 1st, and 427 total yards and 28 points against Boston College on September 23.

Notre Dame’s offense is wildly superior to Georgia Tech’s and Boston College’s, so I’d expect the final score to reflect that.

After all, Georgia Tech did just lose to the Bowling Green Falcons.

The ultimate difference maker will be the Irish’ defense immobilizing Louisville’s offense.

If Notre Dame can hold Ohio State’s offense to just 17 points, I’d expect a similarly low number on the scoreboard for the Cardinals this week.

Pick: Notre Dame (-6.5)

Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings