NCAA Football Takeaways Week 8

Week 8 was an odd week in College Football.

The North Carolina Tar Heels were ranked No. 10 in the AP Poll, and they were coming off a strong 41-31 victory over the then-No. 25 Miami Hurricanes.

The Tar Heels were 24-point favorites on the spread against the Virginia Cavaliers, and North Carolina lost 31-27.

UNC fell from No. 10 to No. 17 in the AP Poll, and quarterback Drake Maye’s Heisman Trophy odds vaporized, falling from +1400 to +5000.

Virginia goes into Chapel Hill and STUNS UNC

First road win against a Top 10 team in UVA history

pic.twitter.com/4IPCYZkY2D

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 22, 2023

That will happen when you lose to a one-win Virginia team, whose sole victory came against FCS-level William & Mary.

It wasn’t just Drake Maye who took a bruising in the Heisman odds in Week 8.

USC quarterback Caleb Williams opened the season as the betting-favorite to win the Heisman with odds of +250, and now, Williams sits at a distant +10000 on BetMGM.

Williams has not been his typical Heisman-level self, scoring just two touchdowns in the last two games combined (one passing TD, one rushing TD).

After losing back-to-back games (Notre Dame and Utah) and falling all the way down to No. 24 in the rankings, USC’s chances of making the College Football Playoff appear to be busted.

The one man that avoided this mystical Week 8 trap was Michael Penix Jr. of the Washington Huskies.

Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. throws an early interception vs Arizona State. pic.twitter.com/geBhvYeGKA

— Arye Pulli (@AryePulli) October 22, 2023

Penix Jr. threw for just 266 yards and two interceptions against the 1-6 Arizona State Sun Devils, and Washington pulled off the close victory, winning 15-7.

The Huskies were down 7-3 entering the fourth quarter, and an 89-yard pick six put Washington on top late. The Huskies then added a few field goals.

But, despite Washington beating a one-win Arizona State team by just eight points (when favored by 28) and scoring ZERO OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS, the Huskies are still No. 5 in the AP Poll and Penix still holds the second-shortest odds to win the Heisman.

Whew!

You can read more about the Heisman Odds here.

Second Half Struggles

Some teams couldn’t hold on for all four quarters last week, squandering leads late in the game.

The Tennessee Volunteers played great defense in the first half of their contest with the Alabama Crimson Tide, entering the second half with a 20-7 lead.

Alabama cut into the Vols’ 13-point halftime lead after just two plays in the third quarter, finding the endzone after only 35 seconds after halftime.

The game flipped completely, with Alabama outscoring Tennessee in the second half by a score of 27-0, the Tide rolling to a 34-20 win.

Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel was openly displeased with the calls from the officiating crew, but when your team gets blanked in the second half, there are more issues at play than an occasional errant call.

It was a similar fate for the Illinois Fighting Illini, as they dropped a 21-7 lead going into the fourth quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers.

Wisconsin scored 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, including a touchdown pass from backup quarterback Braedyn Locke with just 27 seconds remaining.

#Wisconsin's game winning touchdown to Nolan Rucci pic.twitter.com/Aw71Oj0qED

— Dante J Furco (@DanteFurco) October 22, 2023

In their first seven games, the Badgers have scored 75 first half points (10.7 average) and 113 second half points (16.1 average), proving to be a slow starter that takes a bit to get cooking.

Food for thought for live bettors, and first and second half total bettors.

Wisconsin gets the Ohio State Buckeyes next. Maybe Wisconsin will put up a goose egg in the first half?

Also, the Cinderella run for the Duke Blue Devils hit a speed bump on Saturday.

In the ACC showdown between then-No. 16 Duke and the No. 4 Florida State Seminoles, Duke carried a 20-17 lead into the fourth quarter.

The Blue Devils’ entered the game allowing just 9.8 points per contest, and Duke lost their three-point fourth quarter lead by surrendering 21 points to the Seminoles in the final frame.

Despite getting shelled in the fourth quarter, the Blue Devils’ are still a formidable defense that can continue their run for their first ACC Conference Championship since 1989.

The glass slipper still fits.

Where Are The ‘Group Of Five’ Schools?

If you’re not familiar with the term ‘Group of Five’, it’s just a term for the collective schools in the AAC, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt Conferences.

Every now and then, a Group of Five school creeps up the rankings and into the conversation around an important bowl game, or even a potential playoff berth.

The likelihood of the Playoff Selection Committee giving a playoff berth to a Group of Five School is very unlikely.

In fact, in the nine-year existence of the College Football Playoff, only the 2021-22 Cincinnati Bearcats received a spot in the playoff as a Group of Five school.

Cincinnati was a member of the AAC (American Athletic Conference), and has since joined the ranks of the ‘Power Five’ conferences, joining the Big 12 in 2023.

At this point in the season, there are only three Group of Five schools in the Top-25 rankings, No. 19 Air Force, No. 22 Tulane, and No. 25 James Madison.

The Air Force Falcons are undefeated (7-0), and have a decent chance of running the table on their schedule, possibly only the Boise State Broncos in the final game on November 24th.

The Falcons are led by QB Zac Larrier, who has only thrown the football 33 times in seven games, but has been efficient, tallying 619 passing yards and five touchdowns on those 33 attempts.

Virginia goes into Chapel Hill and STUNS UNC

First road win against a Top 10 team in UVA history

pic.twitter.com/4IPCYZkY2D

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 22, 2023

Larrier has also run for 497 yards, averaging 71 yards per game on the ground, and four touchdowns.

Currently, Air Force holds the third-best total defense in the NCAA, allowing just 234.7 total yards of offense per game.

Here’s a quick look at the top five defenses in the NCAA right now:

• 1. Michigan – 227.8 Total Yards Allowed Per Game
• 2. Penn State – 231.8 Total Yards Allowed Per Game
• 3. Air Force – 234.7 Total Yards Allowed Per Game
• 4. Georgia – 263 Total Yards Allowed Per Game
• 5. Ohio State – 264.5 Total Yards Allowed Per Game

Air Force looks like an outlier here, but the Falcons would look like even more of an outlier in the College Football Playoff.

Air Force’s odds to win the Mountain West Conference are just -110 on BetMGM.