Justin Herbert’s Injury Casting Shadow On Chargers Season

The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off a tough 5-12 campaign — mounting injuries played a significant role in their struggles — but ultimately, the Chargers decided they needed a new voice on the sidelines, and Jim Harbaugh is coming in hot.

Los Angeles signed the former-Michigan Wolverines’ head coach in the hopes that the experienced former-San Francisco 49ers’ head coach could lead the Chargers to the playoffs while continuing to develop franchise quarterback Justin Herbert.

The oddsmakers responded by hanging an extremely optimistic 8.5 wins on their NFL future boards, but a plantar fasciitis injury to Herbert has cast a shadow on Los Angeles’ season.

How will the Herbert injury affect the Chargers win total?

Join me as I take a closer look at the LA quarterback situation, their strength of schedule and how these factors affect the Chargers win total odds.

Justin Herbert Injury Status

Last season, Chargers QB Justin Herbert missed regular season action (4 games) for the first time in his career — his current plantar fasciitis prognosis looks okay — two weeks in a walking boot, but their franchise QB is expected to dress when the Chargers host a Week 1 AFC West bout with the Las Vegas Raiders.

Before making a wager on Los Angeles’ win total, here are a few things to consider. 

Win Total Numbers Haven’t Budged

For starters, the injury hasn’t moved the Chargers win total. DraftKings has set the total at 8.5 wins, and that number is widely available. Bettors will pay less vig on the OVER 8.5 (-155) than they did on the opening (-160) but UNDER 8.5 (+130) hasn’t budged.

Chargers Brand New Offense

Recently, the NFL trend is for starting QBs to skip most of the team’s preseason exhibitions’ offensive snaps, yet receive the typical number of reps during preseason drills. Los Angeles has a brand-new coaching staff with an entirely different offensive system and that could pose early season chemistry issues.

Last season, reserve QB Easton Stick started the Chargers’ last four games. Stick threw for 1000+ passing yards and scampered for an additional 144 yards on 27 attempts.

Harbaugh loves to rush the football and Los Angeles signed free agents Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins to strengthen their backfield. The Chargers also reworked their offensive line in the offseason, and with a steady new-look ground game, their offense should be okay in the short team if Herbert were to miss any time.

The concerning thing about Herbert not getting any reps for the next two weeks is this: Los Angeles’ lone returnee to their receiving corps is WR Joshua Palmer.

The Chargers replaced star wideouts Keenan Allen and Michael Williams with free agent WR D.J. Chark, and they’ve also added tight ends Wil Dissly and Hayden Hurst.

What the Herbert Injury Means To The Chargers Win Total

The 8.5-win total means the Chargers are expected to win four more games than they did in 2023.

You are looking at a rebuilt LA offense, with a new coaching staff, fresh faces on the wings and in the backfield with a slightly above-average offensive line. Chemistry happens through repetition, and the first-team starters won’t have many reps with Herbert, or him with them.

While we’re discussing Herbert; generally, it takes 1-2 months for a plantar fasciitis injury to heal. That could mean the Chargers are being optimistic with their two-week prognosis; Herbert could return to practice in their expected time, or he may not.

The Chargers defense looks good on paper, but Pro Football Focus ranks Los Angeles’ stop unit No. 28. Their defense will also have to adjust to new schemes, some new personnel, as well as learning new play-calling signals from the sidelines.

Fortunately for Los Angeles, they have what many feel is the second-easiest schedule in the NFL. If all goes well, and Herbert returns in the Chargers’ expected timeframe, the first four games will be the most difficult.

Los Angeles opens with a winnable game at home against the Las Vegas Raiders, but they follow that with consecutive away games at the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers before returning home to host the defending-Super Bowl champs, the Kansas City Chiefs.

Finally, I wouldn’t wager on the Chargers’ win total until we get a clearer picture on Herbert’s injury. The Chargers timetable seems a bit optimistic, and he could miss a couple of early games, or even reaggravate his injury while rehabbing it.

Los Angeles could potentially start their 2024 campaign with an 0-4 start, and that’s with a healthy Herbert. The Chargers’ win total hasn’t budged since the injury news was revealed, and the only way the total moves this preseason is if Herbert has a major setback.