2024 NFL Power Rankings

With only 17 games in an NFL season, every week and every matchup is of huge importance.

Of the 32 teams league-wide, only 14 will find themselves in a playoff spot when the regular season ends.

The NFL is different from most professional leagues because of how few games are played.

The NBA and NHL play just over 80 games in a regular season. Baseball is twice that many games.

Teams can afford stretches of bad games in most other professional leagues and still have time to recover for a playoff push.

A stretch of bad games in the NFL can easily mean a lost season.

NFL Power Rankings help bettors determine where teams rank against each other and also help bettors determine the accuracy of a point spread.

If you are interested in learning more about how bettors use NFL power rankings and are interested in learning how to develop your own rankings, then read on!

If you want to see how NFL teams are currently ranked according to the power rankings determined by the sportsbooks, read on!

What Are NFL Power Rankings

Many NFL bettors have developed a system to rank all 32 NFL teams. These rankings are referred to as NFL Power Rankings.

Power Rankings can help bettors see teams from a bigger perspective, reduce recency bias, and identify media-hyped teams.

Rankings are not just made to help us list good and bad teams.

Sports bettors and oddsmakers will use their own Power Rankings to handicap games and set point spreads.

Read on if you aren’t developing your own NFL Power Rankings.

We will help explain some of the nuances of creating these rankings and the benefits they can provide when done correctly.

Weekly Rankings

Each week, NFL Power Rankings are created and tweaked.

As results are achieved, rankings get adjusted, and teams are shuffled accordingly.

As the season progresses, the rankings can become more precise. The NFL season is used to produce one Super Bowl Champion.

NFL Power Rankings can identify who that Super Bowl champion could be.

Preseason power rankings can be created using various information and data. We like to keep it simple and rank teams to start according to their Super Bowl odds.

Top-Ranked Teams

Kansas City Chiefs +600 To Win Super Bowl

In the 2022 NFL regular season, there was a lot of conversation about how difficult the AFC West division would be.

Names like Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson made people believe the AFC West would be the toughest division in football.

Well, the Kansas City Chiefs were a perfect 6-0 in their division last year, using those six wins to build a 14-3 overall record and gain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Chiefs used that home field to beat Jacksonville 27-20 and Cincinnati 23-20 in the playoffs before eventually taking out the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl, 38-25.

Kansas City won all three of their playoff games by one score or less on their way to the second Super Bowl for the Chiefs during the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes era.

Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson are back for another year in the AFC West, but the Chiefs are still -180 to win that division.

Philadelphia Eagles +800 To Win Super Bowl

In their three playoff games last year, the Philadelphia Eagles scored over 100 points, including 35 points against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

Unfortunately, the 35 points were a field goal short of the result they were hoping for, and it was KC who was the last team standing.

What was established last year is that Jalen Hurts is a terrific quarterback, capable of leading his team on the game’s biggest stage. Philadelphia won 14 games last year, well over their Win Total set at +9.5 wins.

The Cowboys and Giants were both very competitive in 2022, and both teams have high expectations in 2023-24. The Eagles have a Win Total of +11.5 this year, which is an interesting number.

+11.5 is two more than their +9.5 total of 2022, but +2.5 wins less than the 14 games the Eagles actually won last year. 14-win back-to-back seasons are rare in the NFL, but bettors need to ask themselves if Philly is once again good enough to get 12 wins.

Unless injuries get to them this year, the answer is most likely yes.

Buffalo Bills +900 To Win Super Bowl

Heading into the 2022 season, the Buffalo Bills were a very trendy Super Bowl pick.

The Bills had lost to Kansas City in the 2021 playoffs but did so in spectacular fashion.

Many believed that Buffalo was ready to take the next step.

Last year, Buffalo finished with a 13-3 regular season record and won their last seven regular-season games.

Unfortunately for Bills fans, the AFC is a very deep conference.

Although Buffalo beat Miami 34-31 in their first playoff matchup, they lost to Joe Burrow and his Bengals 27-10 in their second playoff game.

Josh Allen is an NFL MVP betting favorite once again this year, trailing only Patrick Mahomes for the shortest odds to win the award.

However, Allen has a lot of QB competition just in his division alone. 

Mahomes may have to contend with Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, but Allen will battle Tua Tagovailoa and Aaron Rodgers this year.

Just being the best QB in his division will be a great accomplishment for Allen, let alone getting more MVP consideration.

Buffalo is +120 to win the AFC East. How often does Bill Belichick find himself the betting underdog? This year in the AFC East, the Patriots are +800 just to win the division.

The Contenders

Cincinnati Bengals +1000 To Win Super Bowl

The Cincinnati Bengals won their last eight regular season games in 2022 before beating Baltimore and Buffalo in the playoffs, stretching their impressive winning streak to 10 games.

Unfortunately for Bengals fans, the clock struck midnight when Cincy lost to the eventual Super Bowl champs from Kansas City, 23-20, in the AFC Championship.

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, and more.

The Bengals are loaded with playmakers on offense, and many expect Burrow to be right there with Mahomes and Allen in the MVP conversation this year.

Much like the AFC East, and AFC West, the Bengals are stuck in a very loaded division. Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh all have win totals of 8.5 or higher. 

The Bengals are +150 to win the AFC North

Cincy lost four regular season games in 2022, three of them against other AFC North teams.

San Francisco 49ers +1000 To Win Super Bowl

Last year, the San Francisco 49ers were an incredible team while playing for three different starting quarterbacks.

Unfortunately for 49ers fans, San Francisco was out of QB options once Brock Purdy went down.

This year, the NFC West defending champs have announced that Brock Purdy will be their starting quarterback, with Sam Darnold having beat out Trey Lance to be the backup.

Even Gorgeous Jimmy Garoppolo has moved on from the Bay Area, meaning this team is all in on 7th-round pick Brock Purdy.

The 49ers are expected to be the class of the NFC West yet again, with Seattle, the Rams, and most definitely the Arizona Cardinals all behind them.

The Niners are -165 to win their division this year. Only the Kansas City Chiefs are more of a betting favorite to win their division than San Francisco.

Dallas Cowboys +1300 To Win Super Bowl

2022 looked to be over before it even got started for the Cowboys when Dak Prescott went down early in the season and missed several games.

However, Dallas weathered the injury storm with Cooper Rush at QB and somehow finished an impressive 12-5 on the season.

In the NFC East, the majority of the conversation is focused on the Philadelphia Eagles. However, the Cowboys believe they have the talent to compete.

The Eagles are -115 favorites to win the East, with Dallas +175 to take the division.

Dak Prescott is +1600 to win the NFL MVP Award this year.

2023 NFL MVP Odds

Player	Team	NFL MVP Odds
Aaron Rodgers	NY Jets	+1600
Tua Tagovailoa	MIA Dolphins	+1600
Lamar Jackson	BAL Ravens	+1600
Dak Prescott	DAL Cowboys	+1600
Trevor Lawrence	JAX Jaguars	+1600

Prescott finds himself in a group of five players with the same odds (+1600) to win the MVP Award.

If Dak can separate himself from that group of players and be a true MVP candidate – it will mean very good things are happening in Dallas.

Big Value Bets

Miami Dolphins +2100 To Win Super Bowl

Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Bill Belichick – there are a lot of big personalities in the AFC East this year, and that might be why some people are sleeping on the Miami Dolphins.

In 2022, Miami made it to nine wins and narrowly lost a very entertaining playoff game in Buffalo.

When Tua Tagovailoa played, the Dolphins were one of the best teams in the league.

Tyreek Hill is a favorite to lead the league in receiving yards this year. Jaylen Waddle might be the best number-two receiver in the league.

With Aaron Rodgers jumping from the NFC North to the AFC East this year, much of the attention has been shifted to the Jets.

However, Miami was an excellent football team when the 2022 season ended. They lost a 34-31 playoff game in Buffalo that could have gone either way.

The Bills, Jets, Dolphins, and even the Patriots all have a chance in this very tough AFC East.

If Miami can somehow find a way to stack up some divisional wins this year, they could be a force once again come playoff time.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2800 To Win Super Bowl

When we talk about the chances of the Jacksonville Jaguars to be among the top contending teams in the NFL, we are obviously putting a lot of their hopes on young QB, Trevor Lawrence.

Only a couple of years ago, the Jaguars shocked nobody when they selected Lawrence as the first player in the NFL draft.

Year 1 for Trevor was a bit of a disaster, mainly due to the Urban Meyer failed experiment that didn’t quite last one year.

In 2022, Lawrence rebounded and reminded fans why he was selected first overall. In 2023, Lawrence and the Jags get WR Calvin Ridley back from his gambling suspension.

Before Ridley was forced to sit out a year of football, he had become one of the game’s most dangerous receivers.

If Ridley can regain his previous form, Lawrence and the Jags have a significant advantage, playing in the terrible AFC South division, a division Jacksonville should have no problems winning this year.

How To Make Your Own NFL Power Rankings

For those who want to start creating their own NFL Power Rankings, there are many different ways to go about it.

Suppose you are new to sports betting or creating your own rankings.

In that case, we like to simplify the process and make things easier by using the opinions of several experts and oddsmakers.

Sportsbooks are very good at what they do. Each operator licensed in your area will offer odds on all 32 teams to win the Super Bowl.

You will notice that there will be some variation in odds between sportsbooks for individual teams.

We recommend using these odds from multiple sportsbooks to create your NFL Power Rankings.

Compare at least three to five different sportsbooks to make sure you are getting an accurate reflection of the market.

Once you have compiled a spreadsheet that lists every team and their Super Bowl odds from multiple operators, you can develop a ranking system.

The next step is assigning each team a numerical value between 0 and 100.

Typically, the best team in the league falls between an 85 – 90 range; of course, you will find bad teams at the other end of the spectrum.

Let’s use the Kansas City Chiefs this year as an example.

Based on odds compiled from five different sportsbooks, they are the number one ranked team during the offseason this year. We are going to assign KC a rating of 85.

We chose 85 because we believe that the Chiefs are currently the best team.

However, we are still unsure how good they are compared to the rest of the teams in the league.

We believe Philadelphia, Buffalo, and several others are also right there.

We would assign a higher value if we believed KC was the clear-cut Super Bowl favorite and their odds were closer to +300 instead of +700.

You will want to assign a value or number for all 32 teams in the league.

It is always OK to give teams the same value if you aren’t sure which team is better at this point of the season,

What Is League Range

If you want to use your Power Rankings to do things like handicap and create your own point spreads, then you want to make a league range from which to work.

A league range means you are setting a point spread number for a hypothetical game between the best team in NFL history and the worst team in NFL history, played on a neutral site.

Determining your league range is not an exact science, with no great formula yet determined. Typical ranges are between 21-28 points, with 22 – 25 being the most popular range.

Using Power Rankings To Determine Point Spreads

Now that we have ranked and assigned a numerical value for each of the 32 teams and determined our league range, we can use our NFL Power Rankings to help us create point spreads for individual games.

The point spread formula isn’t very complicated, but you should always compare your final number to the sportsbook’s posted line.

If you find your spreads are significantly different than what is being offered in the market, it might signal that you have missed something in your analysis.

The point spread formula looks like this:

Kansas City Chiefs – We want to take their team ranking (as a %) and multiply that by our league range.

In the case of KC, we determined they were an 85 (0.85), and we will use 22 as our league range. 0.85 x 22 = 18.7

For their opponent, let’s use the Arizona Cardinals and pretend we assigned them a team ranking of 18 because Arizona is expected to be an awful team this year.

We want to multiply 0.18 by 22, which equals 3.96.

The last step is subtracting 3.96 from 18.7 to get our point spread total.

18.7 – 3.96 = 14.74. Therefore, in a game where KC is playing Arizona on a neutral field, we have determined that our point spread for that game would be 14.74.

Home Field Advantage

Now that we have established our 14.74-point spread for the hypothetical game above, we need to adjust that number for the home-field advantage.

Historically, the home field has been considered a three-point advantage for the home team.

However, savvy bettors have been adjusting that number based on stadium factors.

Seattle is known as one of the loudest, if not the loudest, stadium league-wide.

Is it fair to compare that stadium to when Jacksonville hosts a late-season game when they are out of the playoffs, and attendance is at 65% capacity?

Probably not.

Determining home field advantage and what that is worth for a specific team is a unique process up to the individual bettor.

The easy method is to assign it as a three-point edge.

However, those who want to get more granular in the process can set a unique advantage for each team.