Buccaneers vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay | Week 11

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers are both coming off big wins in Week 10, with the Bucs defeating the Tennessee Titans by 14 and the 49ers beating the Jacksonville Jaguars by 31.

In Tampa Bay’s win over the Titans, Will Levis failed to reach his passing yards prop against the Bucs, throwing for only 199 yards when his line was set at 222.5 yards on FanDuel.

It was a rare occurrence of a QB going under his passing yards prop against Tampa Bay, as evidenced by the chart below, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE.

Quarterbacks typically produces solid passing yard totals against the Bucs, so I’ll be starting off my Tampa Bay-San Francisco Same Game Parlay with that in mind.

This Week 11 same-gamer will be placed on FanDuel.

Brock Purdy – OVER 254.5 Passing Yards AND OVER 1.5 TD Passes

The Buccaneers are not great at slowing down opposing QBs, so that should bode well for Brock Purdy this week.

Purdy picked apart the Jaguars’ defense last week, and he should do well against Tampa Bay’s 31st-ranked passing defense, allowing 285.3 passing yards per game.

Prior to Purdy’s 296-yard showing against Jacksonville, he has regularly exceeded his passing yards prop, as seen here from BestOdds EDGE:

Purdy is averaging 258.8 passing yards per game this season, slightly ahead of this week’s prop, and I’ve seen nothing to suggest that he will go under.

For the two touchdown passes, Purdy has thrown for two or more touchdowns in four games this season, including three last week.

Purdy has yet to have back-to-back games with two or more touchdown passes this season, but this week’s matchup calls for it.

In the last five games, Tampa Bay has allowed nine touchdown passes, and that’s with Desmond Ridder of the Falcons and Will Levis of the Titans failing to record a single touchdown pass.

Purdy will bring the Bucs’ defense back to reality.

Pick: Purdy – OVER 254.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Pick: Purdy – OVER 1.5 TD Passes (-130 FanDuel)

Christian McCaffrey – OVER 4.5 Receptions, OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards AND Any Time Touchdown

I’m backing McCaffrey’s receiving numbers here, simply because I think they are too low.

McCaffrey is tied for second on the 49ers in targets, he’s third on the team in receiving yards, behind Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, and his four receiving touchdowns is tied with Kittle for the most on the team.

McCaffrey is a running back, but possibly the best receiving back in the NFL.

The Bucs’ rushing defense has been strong, allowing an average of 87.2 rushing yards per game (6th in NFL), so McCaffrey could see plenty of screen passes as a way for the Niners to replace their running game.

BestOdds EDGE projects McCaffrey for 35 receiving yards.

I like McCaffrey to hit the over on his receiving yards prop, and when BestOdds EDGE agrees, I feel even better.

Pick: McCaffrey – OVER 4.5 Receptions (+106 FanDuel)

Pick: McCaffrey – OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Pick: McCaffrey – Any Time Touchdown (-210 FanDuel)

Baker Mayfield – OVER 231.5 Passing Yards AND OVER 1.5 TD Passes

Baker Mayfield is averaging 238.1 passing yards per game and the 49ers’ defense is allowing an average of 238.3 passing yards per game.

With Mayfield’s line set just a few yards shy of that magic number of 238 yards, I like this bet.

In his last three games, Mayfield is averaging 260 passing yards and has thrown two touchdown passes in each game.

If the Bucs fall behind in this one, Mayfield will have to keep flinging it.

The 49ers’ defense has been solid against QBs this season, but the results from opposing quarterbacks have been up-and-down.

Here’s a look at how QBs have fared against San Francisco’s defense in the last six games:

49ers Opponent	Quarterback	Results
Week 4: Arizona	Joshua Dobbs	28/41, 265 Yards, 2 TD
Week 5: Dallas	Dak Prescott	14/24, 153 Yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 6: Cleveland	P.J. Walker	18/34, 192 Yards, 2 INT
Week 7: Minnesota	Kirk Cousins	35/45, 378 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Week 8: Cincinnati	Joe Burrow	28/32, 283 Yards, 3 TD
Week 10: Jacksonville	Trevor Lawrence	17/29, 185 Yards, 2 INT

When throwing for plenty of pass attempts, opposing QBs appear to do well against the 49ers’ defense.

Quarterbacks that attempted 30 or more passes against San Francisco in the last six games have averaged 279.5 passing yards and 1.75 touchdown passes.

Mayfield is averaging 33.9 passing attempts per game, and with a potential negative game script pushing that number higher than usual, he should have plenty of opportunities to eclipse his passing yards and touchdowns props.

Pick: Mayfield – OVER 231.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Pick: Mayfield – OVER 1.5 TD Passes (+194 FanDuel)

Mike Evans – OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards AND Any Time Touchdown

In a game where Mayfield could attempt more than 40 passes, Evans should benefit.

Evans is averaging 81.9 receiving yards per game this season, and he has gone over this week’s 58.5 receiving yard line in six of nine games.

Evans is also seeing an average of 7.8 targets per game, and I’d expect his number of targets to hit double-digits this week.

In each of Evans’ six games where he had over 58.5 receiving yards, he’s seen eight or more targets.

And in those games, where he has seen a higher number of targets, Evans is averaging 95.2 receiving yards per game.

Throughout Evans’ entire career, he’s been a receiving yards collector.

43 catches. 737 yards.

Mike Evans is on pace for his 10th straight season of 1000+ receiving yards to begin his career 🔥

📺: #TBvsSF — Sunday, 4:05pm ET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/1Hmy4ARZvw

— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2023

Evans has a winnable matchup with 49ers cornerback Deommodore Lenoir, and in the red zone, it could be no contest in a jump ball situation between the 6’ 5” wide receiver and the 5’ 10” cornerback.

Pick: Evans – OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Pick: Evans – Any Time Touchdown (+220 FanDuel)

FanDuel SGP Legs	Odds
Brock Purdy – OVER 254.5 Passing Yards	-114
Brock Purdy – OVER 1.5 TD Passes	-130
Christian McCaffrey – OVER 4.5 Receptions	+106
Christian McCaffrey – OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards	-114
Christian McCaffrey – Any Time Touchdown	-210
Baker Mayfield – OVER 231.5 Passing Yards	-114
Baker Mayfield – OVER 1.5 TD Passes	+194
Mike Evans – OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards	-114
Mike Evans – Any Time Touchdown	+220
Buccaneers vs. 49ers SGP Odds	+4701

A $10 wager on this Same Game Parlay would win $470.13!

Betting NFL Same Game Parlays

Same game parlay is just like a regular NFL parlay bet, except all bet selections come from different wagers within one football game.

The benefit of an NFL same game parlay is achieved by combining multiple bets so you can go for bigger wins as the odds increase.

The more bet selections you add, the more difficult it is to win, but the odds also greatly increase so is the potential winning amount.

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