Lawrence Smelser
Updated: Sep 16, 2024
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Week 1 provided plenty of fireworks and entertainment across the NFL, and hopefully, Week 2 will do the same.
At BestOdds, we’re coming off a 3-0 opening week after both our alternate yards parlay and two of our Week 1 player props were successful.
This week, we’re providing another alternate yards parlay featuring two players. Don’t forget to bet responsibly and carefully manage your bankroll.
Week 2 Parlay: Alternate Yards Parlay
The parlay below features two picks for alternate receiving and rushing yards. The odds were correct at the time of writing.
Amon-Ra St. Brown 60+ rec yds and Zamir White 25+ rush yds (-124 at FanDuel)
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Outlook (60+ receiving yards)
After a Pro Bowl 2023 campaign, St. Brown opened the 2024 season with a surprising “dud” week in which he made three catches for 13 yards on six targets. It was his lowest yardage since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The six targets were also a shock since they matched last year’s season low, which occurred only once in 16 outings.
He’ll return home to Ford Field this week, where he obliterated secondaries in 2023.
The USC product recorded not only the 60+ yards required for the first leg of the parlay but 77+ yards in 100% (7/7) of home games.
St. Brown’s 2023 Game Log at Ford Field
Game | Result | Receptions | Yards |
Week 2 vs. Seattle | 37-31 (Loss) | 6 receptions | 102 yards |
Week 3 vs. Atlanta | 20-6 (Win) | 9 receptions | 102 yards |
Week 8 vs. Las Vegas | 26-14 (Win) | 6 receptions | 108 yards |
Week 11 vs. Chicago | 31-26 (Win) | 8 receptions | 77 yards |
Week 12 vs. Green Bay | 29-22 (Loss) | 9 receptions | 95 yards |
Week 15 vs. Denver | 42-17 (Win) | 7 receptions | 112 yards |
Week 18 vs. Minnesota | 30-20 (Win) | 7 receptions | 144 yards |
The 24-year-old averaged 105.7 yards per game at home in 2023 and 94.68 yards over the course of all 16 outings he participated in.
During the regular season, St. Brown also recorded 60 or more receiving yards in 13-of-16 (81.25%) contests.
While it can be challenging to predict NFL player props early in the season since so much change has occurred in coaching staffs and rosters, it isn’t the case with Detroit since it hasn’t endured much change.
Highly touted offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned down head coaching gigs to stay in the Motor City, and head coach Dan Campbell wasn’t going anywhere after leading the Lions to a 12-5 record, an NFC North title, and an NFC Championship appearance.
Starting quarterback Jared Goff also obviously remains after his success.
This consistency bodes extremely well for the fourth-year receiver, who is excellent both in the slot and out wide.
St. Brown’s line at FanDuel for 60+ receiving yards is listed at -280.
This is an excellent alternate yards price due to Caesars having him at -350 (77.78% implied odds) and DraftKings featuring him at -320 (76.19%) to record 60+ yards.
Detroit’s Week 2 opponent, Tampa Bay, will also be missing Pro Bowl safety Antoine Winfield Jr due to injury.
From a game script perspective, it might not appear that Goff would need to throw a lot since the Lions opened as 6.5-point favorites, but St. Brown succeeded in every type of game script at home last season.
The Bucs will also seek revenge after losing to the Lions during the 2023 playoffs (NFC Divisional Round) 31-23.
The Buccaneers might be underrated on paper, but they went 9-8 last year and won the NFC South. The franchise also looked dominant in their 37-20 Week 1 victory against Washington.
The top analytical projection models in the fantasy and betting industries predict St. Brown will do well on Sunday. Using and comparing these models is also useful when researching player props.
Model Projections for St. Brown’s Receiving Yards
- Yahoo: 84.8 yards
- ESPN: 81 yards
- FantasyPros: 80.8 yards
- Numberfire: 80.7 yards
- BettingPros: 74 yards
- Action Network: 71 yards
Zamir White’s Outlook (25+ rushing yards)
This leg of the parlay (-300) for White to record 25+ yards stood out for many reasons.
To start, he’s -400 (80% implied odds) at Caesars to record 30+ rushing yards, -450 (81.82%) for 25+ yards at bet365, and -425 (80.95%) at DraftKings (25+ yards).
From an odds-shopping perspective, the -300 odds are out of this world.
Another reason is that it isn’t a secret that head coach Antonio Pierce enjoyed feeding White carries last year.
Luke Getsy is the new offensive coordinator this year, but with Pierce still the head coach, it’s unlikely White will lose his job as the starter anytime soon.
The 25-year-old Georgia product became the full-time starter in Week 15 last season.
White’s Past Five Games
Game | Result | Carries/Yards |
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles (Chargers) | 63-21 (Win) | 17 carries for 69 yards |
Week 16 at Kansas City | 20-14 (Win) | 22 carries for 145 yards |
Week 17 at Indianapolis | 23-20 (Loss) | 20 carries for 71 yards |
Week 18 vs. Denver | 27-14 (Win) | 25 carries for 112 yards |
Week 1 at Los Angeles (Chargers) | 22-10 (Loss) | 13 carries for 44 yards |
Last week was White’s worst game statistically as an RB1, but the team was trailing most of the game.
This week will be tough against the Ravens as eight-point underdogs, but Baltimore surrendered 68 yards to Isiah Pacheco (24 carries).
The Ravens’ strongside linebacker Kyle Van Noy also is questionable for the contest due to a fractured orbital bone.
Baltimore is stout against the run and, after a week, ranks fifth in the NFL (72 rushing yards allowed). Last year, its defensive unit ranked 12th and surrendered 104.6 rushing yards per game.
That being said, all we’re asking for is 25 yards from the six-foot, 215-pounder, and it’s rare to see -300 odds for a starting running back to reach such a low number.
As the game log shows, White has eclipsed 25 yards rushing in all five outings as the Raiders’ starting tailback.
In the loss against the Chargers, fellow running back Alexander Mattison played primarily on third downs (passing downs), but White was the main man for rushing downs.
Many top projection models also predict White will easily surpass 25 yards on Sunday.
Model Projections for White’s Carries/Rushing Yards
- Numberfire: 14.86 carries for 61.2 yards
- FantasyPros: 14.7 carries for 55 yards
- Action Network: 14.5 carries for 55 yards
- ESPN: 13 carries for 54 yards
- BettingPros: 14.2 carries for 48.7 yards
- Yahoo: 13 carries for 44 yards
If you’re looking for Week 2 odds or parlay picks, check out our latest articles:
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