NRFI Odds For MLB | May 2

Thanks to BestOdds EDGE, I went 3-0 in NRFI selections yesterday.

EDGE assisted me greatly in paring down the 15 games to find the best options for a no-run first inning bet, and today, with a trimmed schedule of just six games, I’ll head back to EDGE for more first inning insights.

MLB action for Thursday is limited, not just in games, but also in terms of “ace” pitchers.

A few top-of-the-rotation arms will be featured in today’s matchups, but it’s few and far between, which naturally has me leaning more towards YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) bets.

BestOdds EDGE has all the information for not just finding empty first innings, but action-packed first frames as well.

EDGE is like a surfboard, keeping me above water on first inning bets, and now it’s time to go surfing for NRFI’s and YRFI’s.

As per usual, all selections will be paired with the best odds. Sportsbooks will have varying odds for first inning bets, so always shop around for the best possible return!

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

New York Mets’ right Adrian Houser will kick the rubber in Queens this afternoon, and considering his 8.37 ERA in 23.2 innings of work, this could be a get-right spot for the Chicago Cubs’ offense.

Shield your eyes, Mets fans. Houser has allowed 14 runs in his last 8.1 innings!

As BestOdds EDGE shows, the Mets and Cubs have not been very good in the first inning.

Both of these clubs are scoring a run in 20% or less of their first innings, and that’s just plain bad.

Houser has allowed a .304 opponent average and a 1.80 WHIP in the first inning, so Houser’s inability to keep the first frame clean may be just what the Cubs’ offense needs to get a jumpstart.

Chicago’s starter will be Ben Brown, a 24-year-old righty that made his Major League debut in the Cubs’ bullpen, and I’m not sure that Brown has been fully ramped up for starter’s duties at this point.

Brown only managed to go 3.2 innings in his last appearance against the Boston Red Sox, and he surrendered seven hits and three runs in that forgettable outing.

Brown’s lefty/righty splits show that he is allowing a .196 average to righties, but lefties in the box are hitting .316.

With solid yet underperforming lefty swingers Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor (switch-hitter) leading off this New York batting order, a run can be created against Brown.

Either side could put a run on the board in the first inning in this one.

Pick: Yes Run First Inning (YRFI)

Best Odds: (+105) Caesars

This bet expected value of +105 at Caesars can also be found at DraftKings for -110. A $10 wager at DraftKings would payout $19.09, while the same wager would payout $20.50 at Caesars.

Over time, these small increments can massively boost a bettors’ return on investment, so always shop around for the best odds!

San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox

The San Francisco Giants will be sending lefty Kyle Harrison to the hill, and the youngster has held his own of late, coming off six scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 26th.

In the crucial first inning, Harrison’s numbers have not been fantastic, allowing a .277 opponent average and 1.24 WHIP, but he’s managed to limit the damage, allowing just a 1.50 ERA in the first.

Through six starts, Harrison has recorded a NRFI record of 5-1, and the only blemish came on a two-out, two-hit rally against the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 20th.

Here’s a look at Harrison’s NRFI record, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE.

On the other side of this matchup, Josh Winckowski is the listed starter for the Boston Red Sox, but with only two first inning appearances in nine outings, Winckowski may be used more as a “bulk guy” behind an opener; possibly lefty Brennan Bernardino.

Bernardino has recorded an 0.79 ERA in 11.1 innings, and has recorded one spotless first inning this season. Against a Giants’ lineup that is heavy with lefthanded swingers at the top, I wouldn’t be surprised to see manager Alex Cora trot Bernardino out there in the first.

San Francisco is batting just .219 in the opening frame with an on-base percentage of .284. Those middling results have led to a run being scored in just six of 31 games for the Giants (19.4%).

Pick: No Run First Inning (NRFI)

Best Odds: (+105) bet365

Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

In the top of the first, Astros’ pitcher Spencer Arrighetti will get the ball against the Guardians, and if he doesn’t show some signs of progress, he may just receive a one-way ticket back to Sugar Land, Texas.

Arrighetti (0-3, 10.97 ERA) has been blistered all season, and his numbers in the first inning are no different.

In his first three big league starts, Arrighetti has allowed a run in the first inning all three times, resulting in a .333 opponent average and a 2.00 WHIP in the first.

With some combination of Steven Kwan (.360, 3 HR, 11 RBI), Andres Gimenez (.282, 1 HR, 17 RBI), Jose Ramirez (.244, 5 HR, 24 RBI), and Josh Naylor (.269, 7 HR, 24 RBI) squaring up against Arrighetti in the first, I’m expecting Houston to relinquish another early lead to Cleveland.

But, as BestOdds EDGE shows, the Astros’ offense has been more successful than the Guardians’ in the first inning.

Houston has their own formidable trio at the top of their lineup, with Jose Altuve (.341, 7 HR, 10 RBI), Yordan Alvarez (.254, 7 HR, 18 RBI), and Kyle Tucker (.298, 8 HR, 21 RBI), and they could give Cleveland’s Logan Allen fits in the opening frame.

Allen (3-1, 5.46 ERA) has struggled out of the gate, sporting a 7.50 ERA in first innings this season and allowing five walks in six turns.

Houston may only be 10-20 on the season, but the top of their order should never be taken lightly.

With Allen’s control issues in the first, and Arrighetti’s trouble at any time, I’d be shocked to see a clean first inning at Minute Maid Park.

Pick: Yes Run First Inning (YRFI)

Best Odds: (-110) Caesars