BestOdds EDGE 101: Analyzing Anthony Davis’ Under Prop Bet

Anthony Davis is quite capable of scoring more than +24.5 points in a single game.

• Against Golden State, Davis has gone OVER +24.5 in 2 of their 4 games. (50%)
• During the playoffs, Davis has gone OVER +24.5 points in 4 of 10 games. (40%)
• In his last 20 games overall, Davis has scored OVER +24.5 points in 9 of 20 games. (45%)

Tonight, AD’s total points prop line has been set at +24.5 points | -110.

The BestOdds EDGE betting platform suggests that bettors have a 10% advantage (projected edge) over the sportsbooks with this bet.

But what does a 10% edge actually mean?

Let’s go!

Interpreting EDGE Data – Made Easy

As sports bettors, sometimes we get locked into the present and spend a lot of time trying to determine exactly how a player will perform in their next game.

The reality is player performance is not a linear line.

Because Player A averages +25 points per game doesn’t mean each time Player A steps onto the court, they will score exactly 25 points in that game.

• In 49 career playoff games, Anthony Davis is averaging over +26 points per game.
• In his last 15 playoff games, Davis is averaging less than +20 points per game.
• This year, Davis scored more than 30 points in three playoff games (30%) and less than 15 points in three playoff games. (30%)

So with all that information above, determining how many points AD will score next time out can be tricky.

How Can BestOdds EDGE Help?

BestOdds EDGE is good at ingesting mass amounts of data and is also really good at math.

Combined, those two skill sets provide some critical information for bettors to use as part of their handicapping process.

In the case of our AD total points prop bet above, we can see that the EDGE betting platform has run its calculations over top of all their Anthony Davis data.

The platform has determined that betting Under +24.5 points at -110 odds gives bettors a 10% edge.

Q – What does a 10% edge mean when it comes to calculating profit?

A – If you are a $10 bettor and place 100 bets at the -110 odds listed for AD’s above prop bet, you would expect to win $1 in profit.

That is not a $1 profit for each of your 100 bets. That is a $1 total profit after your 100 wagers have been placed.

It’s important to note that sportsbooks are extremely good at what they do. For those of us chasing profitability vs the ‘Books long term, “Rome wasn’t built in a day.”

This is a long-term game, where the goal is to give ourselves the advantage each time we place a bet and believe that profitability will be reached over time, not overnight.

Oddly, It’s All About The Odds

The Projected Edge can be highly beneficial to bettors because it will help identify wagers where we can expect to see some form of a profit over the long term IF we make our prop bets using the Best Odds identified by the system.

The projected edge is always about the best odds the betting platform identifies. Betting the Under +24.5 for Anthony Davis points is an advantage for us at -110 odds.

However, if we have just one sportsbook and AD’s prop is offered at -120 instead of -110, then we actually have no advantage or a negative edge for this bet over the long term.

Our profit for the bets we win at -120 odds won’t be enough to overcome the losses.

The projected edge the system gives is always in relation to the Best Odds being offered for that bet.

So, What About AD And His Prop Total?

I have an account at DraftKings, and they are offering Anthony Davis UNDER +24.5 points at -110 odds.

Therefore, I’m interested in making this bet.

Before I do, I will check AD’s last couple of game logs and injury reports just to make sure I don’t see anything that makes me believe something will be drastically different tonight compared to his previous few games.

Assuming my analysis checks out and I can still find Under +24.5 at -110, I will bet it.

But with the understanding that if I made this bet 100 times, I might only win it 54 or 55 times overall… which means 45 times I would be cursing Anthony Davis under my breath.