Current Odds To Win NCAA Basketball Championship
Thomas Snodgrass
Updated: Apr 4, 2024
In 2023, the Final Four was the #4 Connecticut Huskies, #5 Miami Hurricanes, #5 San Diego State Aztecs, and #9 Florida Atlantic Owls.
It was certainly an interesting Final Four.
For this year, other than the surprising tournament run from the #11 NC State Wolfpack and maybe the offensive-focused #4 Alabama Crimson Tide, #1 UConn and the #1 Purdue Boilermakers are usual suspects.
The last time two #1 seeds made the Final Four was in 2021, when the Baylor Bears and Gonzaga Bulldogs ultimately met in the Championship game, with Baylor coming out on top.
Current Odds To Win NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship
2024 Men’s Final Four Teams
| Teams | Best Odds To Win Championship | Odds At Tournament Start |
| #1 Connecticut | -185 FanDuel | +400 |
| #1 Purdue | +210 BetMGM | +750 |
| #4 Alabama | +1800 Caesars | +4000 |
| #11 NC State | +2000 FanDuel | +20000 |
Millions of March Madness brackets are filled out each year and in 2024, 26% of all brackets filled out resulted in the Connecticut Huskies being the NCAA Champions.
Fellow #1 seed, the Purdue Boilermakers, were selected to win it all at a distant 7.9%.
Both the Alabama Crimson Tide and the NC State Wolfpack finished with less than 1% of NCAA Championship selections by the millions of March Madness prognosticators.
Current Odds To Win NCAA Basketball Championship
Connecticut -185 To Win National Championship – FanDuel
The defending NCAA Basketball Champion Connecticut Huskies are currently the club with the shortest odds to win it all once again.
Connecticut’s starting five may be the most dependable group in the nation, and they are led by guard Tristen Newton.
The bigger the competition, the bigger the performance that Newton gives.
For the Huskies, they run a very slow-tempo offense, sitting 329th in adjusted tempo according to the KenPom rankings.
A slow-tempo offense will need to limit turnovers, and Connecticut lost the turnover battle in both of their Big East Conference losses.
The Huskies’ offense is still averaging a solid 81.5 points per game, and their 57.1% effective field goal percentage is sixth in the nation.
Connecticut has dominated the glass, hauling in rebounds with regularity and currently ranked fourth in the country in rebound rate (56.2%), led by 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan (7.5 rpg).
UConn is arguably the most complete team in the NCAA.
Purdue +210 To Win National Championship – FanDuel
Boilermakers’ big man Zach Edey is the focal point of this squad, and at -5000 odds to win the Wooden Award, he’s essentially the focal point of College Basketball.
The 7’4” center is averaging 25 points and 12.2 rebounds per game, ranking third in the nation in both categories.
All three of Purdue’s losses have come against Big Ten competition, but in non-conference play, the Boilermakers have taken down some big programs.
In mid-to-late November, Purdue won four straight games against Xavier, Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette, and in early December, they won back-to-back games against Alabama and then-No. 1 Arizona.
The Boilermakers are currently third in offensive efficiency, so they’ll need to keep their foot on the gas against other quality teams in the Final Four.
Alabama +1800 To Win National Championship – BetMGM
According to the KenPom rankings, the Alabama Crimson Tide are third in adjusted offense in the nation.
Much of that offensive success can be attributed to senior guard Mark Sears, whose 21.5 points per game is the best mark in the SEC.
Sears is connecting on 50.4% of his field goal attempts, and he’ll need to continue that efficient rate if Bama has any intentions of winning a National Championship.
The Crimson Tide are ranked 262nd in the NCAA in defensive efficiency, so they must continue outscoring opponents.
Alabama entered the tournament at 21-11, and in all 11 of the Crimson Tide’s losses, they allowed an average of 94.2 points per game.
Just for frame of reference, the worst club in the NCAA in points allowed is VMI, and that team allowed 84.9 points per game (362nd, last in NCAA).
Alabama is not much better at 348th in NCAA, allowing 81.1 points per game.
That poor defense showed up in their first round matchup against the College of Charleston, allowing 96 points, but the Tide’s offense keeps on rolling.
Bama is averaging 89.8 points per game since the tournament began.
NC State +2000 To Win National Championship – DraftKings
The #11 NC State Wolfpack are just the seventh team with 200-1 or greater odds to make the Final Four, interestingly all of these occurrences have happened since 2011.
NC State has taken down some big teams on their way to the Final Four, including the #2 Marquette Golden Eagles and the #4 Duke Blue Devils.
The Wolfpack were seven-point underdogs against Marquette in their Sweet 16 matchup and NC State won by nine, then they followed that impressive showing by defeating Duke in the Elite Eight as a seven-point underdog; beating the Blue Devils by 12.
NC State is a well balanced club, sitting 40th in adjusted offense and 44th in adjusted defense in the KenPom rankings.
6-foot-9, 275-pound forward DJ Burns has been a mismatch nightmare in the paint for the Wolfpack, scoring 29 points in the win over Duke, but leading scorer DJ Horne (16.8 ppg) should not be ignored on the outside.
Current Odds To Win Women’s NCAA Basketball Championship
Women’s College Basketball continues to grow in popularity, and according to BetMGM, the LSU-Iowa Elite Eight matchup was the most bet women’s sporting event in BetMGM history, with both April 1st Elite Eight games (LSU-Iowa and UConn-USC) outperforming all six April 1st NBA games in total bets and handle.
The rise in popularity can be largely attributed to superstar individual players, such as Caitlin Clark of Iowa, JuJu Watkins of USC, and Paige Bueckers of Connecticut; not to forget the great recent talents of Aliyah Boston and A’ja Wilson of South Carolina and Sabrina Ionescu of Oregon, among others.
The South Carolina Gamecocks are the heavy favorite to win the Women’s National Championship, and it’s hard to argue when they are 36-0.
South Carolina won their first two games of the tournament by more than 40 points!
The Iowa Hawkeyes’ Caitlin Clark is likely to win the Wooden Award as the top player in Women’s College Basketball this year, and she’ll need to keep up her historic scoring pace if the Hawkeyes have any hope of cutting down the nets.
Clark’s 32 points per game is No. 1 in the nation.
The 33-5 Connecticut Huskies are always a threat to win it all, as evidenced by head coach Geno Auriemma’s 11 National Championships.
Paige Bueckers is averaging 22 points per game and is shooting 41.8% beyond the arc, which is actually higher than Clark’s 38% from three.
NC State has made a strong run in the tournament, winning each of their last two games by 10 or more points (defeated #2 Stanford 77-67, defeated #1 Texas 76-66).
| Teams | Best Odds To Win Championship |
| #1 South Carolina | -195 DraftKings |
| #1 Iowa | +300 bet365 |
| #3 Connecticut | +700 FanDuel |
| #3 NC State | +1600 DraftKings |
Popular NCAA Basketball Championship Bets
The possibilities are endless for betting on the Final Four and Championship games.
Bettors will have hundreds of bets available for the tournament’s final three games.
The most popular bets have traditionally been Point Spread, Moneyline, and Totals (Over/Under).
Moneyline
With a moneyline bet, you’re simply betting on who will win the game.
This is the most straightforward wager for bettors because the goal is simply to pick the winner. There are no other facts to consider.
Here is an example of a moneyline bet from last year’s Final Four.
- Miami Hurricanes +210
- UConn Huskies -250
The Huskies are the betting favorite, so they have a (-) sign before their odds.
If you wanted to win $100 by betting on UConn, you would have to wager $250 on the Huskies to win back $100 in profit.
The Miami Hurricanes are the underdog in our game above. We can determine they are the underdog by the (+) before their odds.
A $100 wager on Miami would return a profit of $210.
Point Spread
With point spreads, you’re simply backing a team to win by a specific margin or to avoid losing by a specific margin.
In short, the team that you pick has to cover the spread.
Here’s an example of how a point spread would look like:
- Florida Atlantic +2 (-110)
- San Diego State -2 (-110)
If you back SDSU, they need to win by more than 2 points for you to win your wager.
If you back the underdogs from FAU, they can lose by less than 2 points or win the game outright, and your bet will cash.
A game that SDSU wins by precisely two points would be considered a push, with all money refunded.
Totals
Totals betting is also known as over/under betting.
Here, you’re simply betting on the game’s total score and whether it will exceed or fall below the total set by the sportsbook.
For example, the total in the FAU vs SDSU is set at 131.5.
If the combined score of that game totals 132 points or more, the game will be considered OVER the total.
Obviously, any combined score of 131 or less will be considered a win for the Under.
Final Four: Prop Betting
When placing some action on the Final Four games, bettors today have many options, which can sometimes feel overwhelming when trying to pick through all the different prop bets available.
Traditionally, we have relied on point spreads, moneylines, and totals to get us through big games.
Those options are being surpassed by the many prop bets, now available at all legal sportsbooks.
Some of the more popular player prop betting options include:
- Player Points
- Player Assists
- Player Rebounds
- Combined Player Points + Assists + Rebounds
Some of the more popular game prop betting options include:
- Correct Final Score
- Race To X Points (10, 20, 30 and more)
- Game To Go To OT
- Final Winning Margin
With the increased focus on technology and access to data at an all-time high, sportsbooks continue to invent fun and creative prop betting options that the betting public enjoys as much or more than traditional bets.
Final Four: Betting Strategies
Pay Attention To Spreads, Not Seeds
When the #11 NC State Wolfpack take on the #1 Purdue Boilermakers, all bettors know that the Wolfpack will be the underdog come tip-off.
Whenever a 11-seed plays a 1-seed, we can safely assume the 1-seed, barring a recent injury to a star player, will be the betting favorite.
Often, as bettors, we can see where a team is seeded and draw conclusions about how good that team is.
The better method of evaluating teams is to look at the point spread for their games.
Sportsbooks and sharp bettors know how good or bad a team is.
They use point spreads and moneylines to signal to us what they expect to happen in a game.
We should all be paying close attention to those clues and not assuming based on the seeding a team has.
Always Shop Around
We have already talked about the sportsbooks’ advantages over the recreational bettor, including the juice applied to each bet and the time and resources spent analyzing data.
However, we haven’t mentioned that the recreational sports bettor has a serious advantage over the sportsbooks, which is our ability to shop around and play using the Best Odds available.
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM |
| Florida Atlantic | +650 | +500 | +625 |
| Miami, FL | +450 | +440 | +475 |
| San Diego St. | +400 | +380 | +375 |
| UConn | -125 | -130 | -125 |
Looking at the odds from the Final Four teams in 2023, we can see that a FanDuel bettor could have won $500 in profit with a $100 wager on FAU, but a DraftKings bettor could have won $650 in profit for the same bet amount.
That is a $150 difference in profit just with one bet.
Over time, a sports bettor can increase their profit and bankroll by upwards of 20%, or higher, simply by shopping around.
