NFL Week 1 Odds

The moment we have all been waiting for, since the Mahomes masterclass back in February, has arrived.

Super Bowl LVIII (or 58 as I have to explain to my kids) will be beamed across the globe from Las Vegas just over 5 months after Detroit heads into Kansas City.

There are a fair few pundits who have already wagered that the two teams who kick off the 58^th season of NFL action will be the last two teams standing and that the Chiefs-Lions will be entertaining us on February 11^th in Nevada.

Before we reach that point, there is the small matter of regular and, for the lucky ones, post-season to navigate for the 32 franchises.

Without further ado, let’s break down all of the Week 1 games to identify some value bets and those clashes we simply want to swerve.

We shall head first to the Arrowhead Stadium.

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs – Thursday 7^th September 2023

The Super Bowl victors welcome into Kansas a team that is one of the most pressured across the league this upcoming season.

For once, the odds compilers in Vegas are bullish on the Lions.

As a big Vikings fan of nigh on 40 years, I am struggling to recall when Detroit was ever the favorite to win the NFC Central / North! Anyways, that’s the position in which they find themselves.

A trip to the mighty Super Bowl MVP’s backyard is certainly going to be a good indication as to whether the bettors’ optimism is well founded or not.

I sense that the Chiefs will come out victorious at home and cover the spread, whilst the Lions will head back to Michigan with their tail between their legs after their defense was decimated in a high-scoring, rip-roaring start to the season.

At least, that is what I’m hoping for! FanDuel is out on a limb with the total for this game up at 54.5.

Most other books are at 54, so don’t go betting on the over with them. Be sure to shop around to attain the best odds.

Selection – Over at 54 (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns – Sunday 10^th September 2023

It is the clash that all Ohioans look forward to.

This season, bragging rights will be won very early on. The money has been steadily coming for the Browns and at the rate it is going, we may well see a pick’em before long.

Two seasons ago, Joe, Ja’Marr, et al surpassed all expectations to reach the Super Bowl.

Last season, they were moderate to start the season and then went gangbusters winning 8 on the bounce to finish 12-4. Deshaun did not have a particularly spectacular start to his Cleveland career in 2022.

However, I do expect him to reward his home faithful with a victory over the old enemy. The Browns are 8-2 in their last 10 games and I’m going for that becoming 9-2 on Sunday.

Selection – Browns Moneyline at +120. Bet365 has the best odds on this divisional duel.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings – Sunday 10^th September 2023

My beloved Vikings play host to their former NFC Central rivals and they are currently favorite by a touchdown.

Until the time comes for Minnesota to go 1-4 in Super Bowls, it will forever irk me that TB won an SB thanks to TB!

However, this first Sunday of the season TB will be without TB. I simply cannot see them having enough under center to be able to counter the well-oiled Minnesota machine.

Kevin O’Connell has too much talent at his disposal for the Vikes not to waltz past the Bucs by double digits.

Selection – Vikings (-6) (-110).

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons – Sunday 10^th September 2023

This is not one of those games that will likely feature towards the top of the weekly highlights. In 2022, no NFC South team managed to have a winning season.

I think that both teams on show in Georgia on Sunday will have yet another season below .500.

All eyes will be on the comparatively diminutive Bryce Young, the first overall pick in the 2023 Draft. The Heisman Trophy winner must be relieved to be facing mediocrity in his first regular season game.

His Panthers are entering the game as a field goal road underdog. For my regular 2022 parlays, I went 16-4 with my “road underdog of the week” selections.

The Dolphins are my selection this week, but Carolina was very nearly the choice. Come on Bryce! Kick off your career with a victory, please.

Selection – Panthers Moneyline at +165.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts – Sunday 10^th September 2023

Another divisional clash to kick off their seasons.

The Jags were the surprise element in 2022, thanks to an inspired December from the QB with the best haircut in the league.

In Mr. Lawrence’s capable hands, Jacksonville went from 4-8 to 9-8 to snatch the AFC South from the terrible Titans.

Vegas has the Colts as underdogs by a whisker over a field goal and the odds compilers are in some disagreement about their chances! It’s always important to shop around for the best odds.

Selection – Colts Moneyline at +190.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday 10^th September 2023

Two of my favorite franchises from when I became an NFL fan in the 1980s face off in Pennsylvania.

The last player selected in the 2022 Draft was the darling of San Francisco last season, miraculously taking the 49ers from 3-4 to 13-4.

What can Mr. Irrelevant accomplish after his remarkable breakout season?

My take is that he will not be the starter come the second half of the season, whilst Kenny Pickett fails to inspire me.

Thus, I shall be making my first under-pick of the season.

Selection – Under at 41. Caesars are one of the few sportsbooks at 41, with the majority at 40.5. Pointsbet shows a total of 41.5, but the odds are only -120; rather than Caesars being -110.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders – Sunday 10^th September 2023

This is not a game for primetime. Two of the lowest-scoring teams from last season face off having propped up their respective divisions in 2022.

Surely Messrs Murray and Wilson were the two most overpaid and underperforming QBs in the NFL 12 months ago.

With Kliff Kingsbury at the helm, at least you had the feeling that the Cards could win some games in the first half of the regular season.

With Jonathan Gannon in charge now, who knows what will happen? The Head of Social at BestOdds, Brent, has Washington as his sleeper of the season.

He has assured me that their D will keep Murray et al all wrapped up with nowhere to go. The most expensive franchise in US sports is expected to kick off their campaign with a comfortable home victory and thus cover the touchdown spread.

That should please the new owners!

Selection – Commanders (-7) (-110).

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints – Sunday 10^th September 2023

Goodness gracious, the Titans were terrible in the second half of the season.

Seven straight defeats saw one of the favorites for the AFC honors in mid-November miss out on the playoffs.

The Saints also finished with a 7-10 record and have splashed out on dragging Derek Carr away from Nevada to Louisiana.

Tennessee is one of those road underdogs by a field goal. I’m tempted by take the Titans on the moneyline, given the Saints’ QB will still need time to acclimatize in New Orleans.

Mike Vrabel was such a charismatic player in his heyday that I cannot believe he will tolerate an 8^th successive defeat. I think the value is there for Tennessee on the moneyline

Selection – Titans Moneyline at +155. Not for the first time this week, Bet365 is the book offering the best odds for a particular moneyline selection. BetRivers is only paying +138 on the Titans, which goes to show why the better bettor will always seek out the best odds to maximize their potential winnings.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens – Sunday 10^th September 2023

Yes, everyone thinks that the Texans suck, and judging by the futures markets, there is hardly anyone staking their hard-earned dollars on Houston.

Along with the Cards, they are massive outsiders at +20000! Note that on the Futures markets, PointsBet is currently +20000 in Arizona, whilst Caesars is +10000.

Imagine if that miracle happens and Kyler Murray wins the Super Bowl, wouldn’t you feel disappointed not to have shopped around for the BestOdds!

Anyways, back to this game in Baltimore. I like the Texans on the spread. Why?

Towards the end of last season, they were playing good ball and went toe-to-toe with some top teams. They were unlucky often to end up on the losing side.

The first week often sees some quirky results and I’m expecting the Texans to be within 10 points of the Ravens. Hell, they might even sneak off with a victory!

Selection – Texans (+10) (-110).

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears – Sunday 10^th September 2023

The most frequent clash of teams in the history of the NFL. These two have faced off a whopping 206 times!

I expect these two teams to prop up the NFC North this season. Justin Fields lacks the talent around him, whilst a post-Rodgers era will leave the Pack rudderless.

Given the rather uninspiring rosters, I envisage a day of defenses dominating. It is the under for me on this game. This specific bet is the final leg selection for my parlay.

Selection – Under at 43.5 (-110).

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots – Sunday 10^th September 2023

Bill Belichick is a master tactician and many a bettor out there have absolute faith in his talents. That is why the high-flying Eagles are flying into Foxboro as only 4.5-point favorites.

It may be sacrilegious, but that is showing too much respect to the Pats’ head coach.

Simple.

I expect a super talented Philadelphia team to emerge victorious by at least a touchdown and start their season as they mean to go on.

Put February’s Super Bowl defeat behind them and go one better in 5 months!

Selection – Eagles (-3.5) (-110).

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks – Sunday 10^th September 2023

12 months ago, this game certainly would not have had the Rams as 5.5-point underdogs! Back then, Los Angeles was wallowing in the glory of being defending Super Bowl Champs.

How fortunes can turn in a short space of time. Geno’s Seahawks surprised many to sneak into the playoffs whilst the Rams contrived to go 5-12.

I struggle to pick the winner here and am inclined to head for the under. The new-look Rams will struggle to fire and their rivals took several weeks to hit their stride last year.

I expect the same this time around.

Selection – Under at 46.5. DraftKings is the best sportsbook to take the under for this game.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos – Sunday 10^th September 2023

Another road underdog up against a divisional rival to kick off the season. The Raiders did the double over Denver last season.

Much is being made of Russell improving at the helm in his second year in Colorado. However, I don’t see it.

Giving the Raiders more than a field goal headstart feels too much for me. I would not be surprised to see the Raiders to do a double-double over Denver in 2023.

Yet, I think the value bet is on the spread for the Raiders in this Week 1 game.

Selection – Raiders (+4.5) (-110). PointsBet stands out from the crowd for this clash and offers the best odds for LV to cover.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers – Sunday 10^th September 2023

As slightly given away earlier on, my moneyline road underdog of Week 1 for my regular five-leg parlay is the Miami Dolphins.

Last season they fairly flew out of the blocks, plus they slaughtered the Eagles in their final pre-season game.

They raced to a 3-0 record. In Week 14, they flew across the country whilst halfway through a 5-game losing streak. Tua, Tyreek, and the rest of this Dolphins team will have revenge very much on their minds.

I expect Miami to return east with the first victory of the season in the bag.

Selection – Dolphins Moneyline at +145. A month ago, FanDuel was the optimal book for a Miami victory. Now, they are one of the worst. It’s Bet365 again where the best value lies.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants – Sunday 10^th September 2023

Sunday Night Football sees us heading to the most competitive of divisions, the NFC East. Whereas the NFC South failed to see a team above .500, those on the East Coast with the addition of a certain team from Texas were all at .500 or higher.

With Washington the sleeper team in this division and the Eagles-Cowboys roster strength still in force, are we going to see the Giants revert to enduring a losing season? It would not be surprising.

The odds compiles have the Cowboys as the road favorite by just over a field goal. It’s always rather a nasty market to play in my mind.

I expect Thursday Night Football to be a score fest, and I’m taking the opposite view for Sunday Night Football.

The under is my selection for this game. These two teams have a habit of scoring under 40 points when they play each other in the early weeks of the season.

So, I’d be happy to push for the under when the total sits up closer to 50 than 40.

Selection – Under at 46.5 (-110).

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets – Monday 11^th September 2023

What a cracking game to bring down the curtain on Week 1 of the latest NFL Season!

Mr Rodgers earns his keep with a new team, and they face off against a familiar foe. This time last year, the world was smirking about the Jets’ QB love life.

This time around, we’re all wondering whether Aaron brings his A-game to the Big Apple. Surely he cannot hit the ground running and expect to have one over on New York’s upstate rival?

The sportsbooks give him a pretty good chance seeing how close the lines are. At one point the Bills were just 1-point favorites.

Now, the sportsbooks for once are in agreement on a spread market. For MNF, the Bills have strengthened to 2.5-point favorites.

I expect them to eke out a small margin of victory and hand one of the finest QBs in history a home defeat for his debut.

Selection – Bills (-2.5) (-110).

Check out NFL week 2 betting odds to lock in early bets before sportsbooks shift their lines.

If you fancy parlays, we have the best NFL parlay bets week 1 analysis worth checking out.