Separating Super Bowl Contenders From Pretenders

When the Baltimore Ravens waltzed into Levi’s Stadium and soundly defeated the San Francisco 49ers 33-19 on Christmas night, it sent bookmakers scrambling to reshuffle the futures odds for the 2023 season.

Just not the odds you might expect.

MVP odds?

Yeah, those certainly skewed in Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson’s favor after he piloted his team’s offence to near-perfection while the erstwhile favorite, Brock Purdy threw four interceptions in that game to see his chances retreat and his odds soar.

Before the game, Purdy was around -200 (depending on the sportsbook) to win the trophy while Jackson was in the +475 range most places.

A week later, Purdy’s odds had skyrocketed to +1300 while Jackson had slid to -190.

The 49ers’ best hope of getting the award now rests with superstar running back Christian McAffrey (+475) as if voters would ever hand the thing to someone who plays a position other than QB.

Super Bowl Odds Stay Steady

And yet bookmakers didn’t go nuts when it came to adjusting 2024 Super Bowl odds.

Though the game was hyped all week as a potential Super Bowl showdown, rightly so, its outcome didn’t shift the odds much.

On Dec. 19, the 49ers were in the +210 area and, a week later, they had moved to +230.

Baltimore nudged down from +550 to +380.

It makes sense, too.

Even if these teams do meet again on Feb. 11 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas in the Super Bowl, regular season results aren’t great at determining the game’s outcome.

In 2007, the New York Giants lost to the New England Patriots in the regular season then avenged it in the Super Bowl.

Four years later, the exact opposite happened.

The Giants won the regular-season matchup and flopped, 21-17 in the Super Bowl.

And remember: things change fast in the NFL.

Just because Baltimore and San Francisco had the best records heading into Week 16 doesn’t mean they’ll meet again in February.

Let’s take a look at some of the other top contenders. In other words, let’s separate the bona fide contenders from the pretenders.

As usual, shop BestOdds.com for the most favorable future odds as they vary more than one might think.

San Francisco 49ers (+230)

Nothing that happened in that game should change the way this team is perceived.

It still has the most offensive weapons of any team in the NFL, a top-tier defense, and brilliant coaching.

If there is one nagging concern about the 49ers chances, it’s Purdy’s performance and subsequent frame of mind.

Even though two of his picks were deflected, four interceptions are still four interceptions.

The bottom line, though, it’s almost impossible to lose the turnover battle 5-0 and not get embarrassed in the NFL.

The 49ers still are sitting pretty with likely home games up until that Super Bowl, so don’t be overly discouraged if you already had a ticket in hand on S.F.

If anything, take advantage of the more favorable odds and add a little more.

Status: Contender

Baltimore Ravens (+380)

Jackson is just so hard to stop and that defense conceals its coverages and pressures before the snap so well, that opposing quarterbacks find it impossible to guess what’s coming.

We’ll know more in a matter of days as a victory over the Miami Dolphins Sunday would lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and guarantee home games at every stop, but in Jackson, you get a unicorn quarterback, one who is easily the best open-field runner at the position and as good a pocket passer as 90% of the QBs out there.

The defense is better than all but Cleveland’s and the Browns have no offense.

It would be folly to doubt this team.

Status: Contender

Miami Dolphins (+750)

It’s surprising how little the perception of the Dolphins changed after last week’s hard-fought 22-20 win over the Dallas Cowboys in South Florida.

That reflects, of course, doubt about the Cowboys’ ability to play well outside Jerry World in Arlington, Texas, but it would be a massive mistake to overlook the Dolphins as legit Super Bowl threats.

They have game-changing stars led by Tyreek Hill, but augmented by explosive speed guys like De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jaylen Waddle.

The challenge is the schedule as Miami has to play Baltimore and the red-hot Buffalo Bills to finish the season, imperiling its bid to play home games.

Status: Contender

Dallas Cowboys (+1000)

If this were 2011 and the Super Bowl were being played at AT&T Stadium, one might be able to posit a scenario where this team somehow ekes out a few road wins to get there and then puts on its usual laser light show at home.

As it stands, that feels about as likely as Jones declaring he no longer wants TV cameras to find him in his luxury box during games.

This is a team that scores an average of 39.9 points at home and 21.5 on the road, that has been a perfect 7-0 in its shiny white dome and 3-5 everywhere else.

The results are just too lopsided to ignore.

This team figures to lose the first time it has to abandon its turf shoes for real cleats.

Status: Pretender

Philadelphia Eagles (+750)

The more you watch the Eagles, the more you wonder how much of their success has been mastery of a play that would have been illegal as recently as 2005.

Now, after the Eagles perfected their “Brotherly Shove,” play in which their excellent offensive line burrows under the defense and the backs and tight ends essentially push quarterback Jalen Hurts to first downs in short-yardage situations, the league is considering outlawing the play once again. In the meantime, the Eagles just don’t look good enough in other facets.

They haven’t beaten a decent team since a home overtime win over Buffalo on Nov. 26.

Status: Pretender

As for the rest of the field?

It’s tempting to take a long look at the defending champs, because, well, the Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes.

But aside from Travis Kelce, no one else on that team seems able to catch the ball.

The Buffalo Bills might have been worth a few bucks if they hadn’t fallen apart mid-season after losing linebacker Matt Milano.

Now, they have too much ground to make up.