2024 Strikeout Stats

What Is A Strikeout Prop?

A strikeout prop is simple. It’s a wager on the number of strikeouts a specific pitcher will achieve in any given MLB game.

The sportsbook will set a line, usually an over/under.

A bettor’s goal is to decide whether or not that pitcher will have more or less strikeouts.

For example, if a sportsbook sets New York Yankees’ pitcher Gerrit Cole to have over/under 7.5 strikeouts, and Cole finishes with eight or more strikeouts, the over would be the winning bet.

Strikeout Stats And Analytics

When examining a strikeout prop, MLB bettors should consider several stats related to the listed starting pitcher on the sportsbook.

K/9 measures how many strikeouts a pitcher records per nine innings pitched. The higher the K/9, the higher the pitchers’ strikeout tendency.

The slightly different K% is simply a pitcher’s number of strikeouts divided by the total number of batters faced.

K% and K/9 usually indicate the best strikeout pitchers in the game.

Whiff percentage is a statistic that tells the percentage of pitches thrown by a pitcher that missed the bat entirely. Pitchers that rank highly in whiff percentage are commonly near the top of the MLB strikeout leaderboard.

A pitcher’s arsenal should also be considered. Some pitchers work with different offerings — some are sinker-slider guys that look to pitch to contact, some are “crafty lefties” that work with movement and spin rate while painting the corners of the strike zone, and some are pure flamethrowers that will try and blow it past hitters.

Baseball Savant is a very handy tool in discovering a pitchers’ arsenal, and with a long track record of data, it can even tell you if a pitcher is losing velocity or if his breaking pitches are flattening out.

There’s different ways to get a batter to swing-and-miss, and each pitcher comes with their own flavor.

Opposing Offenses

Bettors must zero in on opposing offenses, too. Some lineups can whiff often, and lineups that continuously fail to put the ball in play can lead to higher strikeout totals for opposing pitchers.

Swinging strike percentage is the whiff rate equivalent to an offense, indicating the frequency of which individual players or whole offenses that swing the bat and miss.

Much of the statistics showcasing a pitcher’s punch out potential can be found on the offensive side as well.

Even pitchers that are not ‘strikeout artists’ can have a strong day on the mound against certain lineups.

If a pitcher with a high K% and whiff rate is facing a lineup that has a high offensive K% and swinging strike percentage, chances are that there are going to be some strikeouts.

Check Lineups

Lineups are commonly released hours before a game starts, giving bettors plenty of time to check out the batting order before placing any wagers.

Sometimes, a manager will give some of their superstar players a breather, and that could drastically alter a lineup, which in turn, drastically alters a pitchers’ strikeout potential.

Righty/Lefty Splits

When examining a pitcher’s strikeout prop, it is important to notice which arm that pitcher is delivering from.

If an opposing lineup is struggling to make contact against left-handed pitchers, and a high-strikeout lefty is facing this southpaw inept squad, the pitcher is likely to produce a lofty strikeout total.

Also, it benefits bettors to be aware of ‘platoon hitters’, which are batters that are often deployed in a lineup to face a pitcher throwing from the opposite side.

If a right-handed pitcher is facing a typically right-handed-heavy lineup, one may expect the righty pitcher to collect plenty of strikeouts, but if the opposing manager throws a few lefty platoon hitters in his lineup, that could drive down his strikeout totals.

Some players carry ‘reverse splits’, performing better against a hitter or pitcher from the same side, so bettors should study these splits to gain an edge in potential matchups.

Recent Performance

Pitchers can be streaky, and if a specific pitcher is dealing on the mound, they can string together some impressive strikeout performances.

The same goes for lineups on the other side. Strikeouts can be contagious, and if a whole lineup is whiffing at an alarming rate, it’s best for bettors to capitalize on it.

When a pitcher is doing well — or doing poorly — the sportsbooks will usually adjust the lines accordingly.

Bettors that have a strong knowledge of a pitchers’ recent strikeout performances can sometimes spot an edge on the books when the lines come out.

Shop Around For The Best Odds

While the odds for the over/under on a pitchers’ strikeout total will typically be around -110, that’s not always the case, and lines and odds will vary from game to game and between different sportsbooks.

Here’s an example of New York Yankees’ pitcher Carols Rodon’s lines in a contest against the Kansas City Royals:

Sportsbook	Rodon’s K Prop	Over Odds	Under Odds
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115
Caesars	5.5	-127	-108

Rodon finished with just three strikeouts in this game, so the under was the winning bet.

A bettor that placed a winning $10 bet on FanDuel’s -130 odds received a payout of $17.69, while a winning wager on Caesars would have paid out $19.26. Had that bettor placed their under bet on Caesars, they would have received a 8.87% larger payout.

Bettors who put in the time to properly examine today’s best strikeout prop bets should also take the time to shop around for the best odds.