Best NRFI Bets Today

NRFI bets are perfect for baseball bettors that are looking for quick action on the sportsbook. Six outs and zero runs scored at the end of the first inning is all a bettor needs to win a NRFI bet.

Editor’s Note: Thank you for joining us for the 2024 MLB Season! We’ll be back again next year with daily NRFI picks.

Until then, for more information on No Run First Inning bets, check out our BestOdds’ NRFI stats page.

For even more data and betting insights for NRFI bets, be sure to check out NRFI PRO by clicking the link below! NRFI PRO comes with a 100% free trial! No credit card required!

So, with NRFI-betting assistance from NRFI PRO, let’s take a look at our top NRFI bet of the day!

Pick: BOS vs. BAL – NRFI | Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles

First Pitch: 6:35 PM ET

The Red Sox and Orioles start a four-game series on Thursday, and in their previous six meetings this season the NRFI has gone 3-3.

In this NRFI-YRFI rubber match, I’m leaning towards the NRFI, and mainly because Boston’s offense has batted only .143 in the first inning over their last 10 games, scoring in the opening frame just once in that time.

But, in the top of the first, Baltimore’s offense steps to the plate against Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta, and the O’s have been scoring early of late, recording a run in five of their last 10 first-inning appearances and hitting .318 in that time.

Pivetta has allowed a few YRFIs in his recent outings, data courtesy of NRFI PRO, but his decent 1.06 WHIP implies that he is not allowing too many baserunners, just the occasional extra-base hit that really moves traffic around the bases.

Pivetta’s performance in the first inning is very similar to his all-or-nothing results throughout the season.

The main concern is that Pivetta is a flyball pitcher, allowing some lift of the baseball.

But, as the old adage goes, “You can’t beat a flyball to first base”.

By allowing an Orioles squad led by launch angle extraordinaire Anthony Santander, whose 57.7% flyball percentage actually leads the MLB, should limit movement around the basepaths.

In the bottom half of the inning, Zach Eflin makes his way to the mound to silence the Red Sox.

As I previously mentioned, Boston’s offense has been almost non-existent in the first inning over their last 10 games, and I’m expecting that trend to continue against Eflin.

There are concerns, like Eflin’s .295 opponent batting average in the first and his 4.09 first-inning ERA, but he has yet to allow a run in the first since being traded to Baltimore.

A change of scenery can work wonders for some pitchers, and the numbers appear to be skewing in a positive direction since donning O’s black and orange.

No Run First Inning Betting Strategy

When someone tells you they have “a system” in betting, that’s a red flag. That goes for almost any bet, including No Run First Inning bets (NRFI).

NRFIs ebb and flow depending on a multitude of factors, such as starting pitchers, lineup construction, ballparks, weather conditions, you name it.

While there is no “system” for nailing down any NRFI bet, bettors should still find the appropriate tools and data that can assist them in their NRFI wagers.

For me, the ultimate NRFI betting tool is NRFI PRO, which has vaulted my NRFI betting profits out of the blind-betting graveyard it once laid.

So, no, I don’t have a NRFI-betting “system,” but I do have a strategy that relies heavily on NRFI PRO, my NRFI-betting sidekick, which keeps my NRFI wagers from killing my bankroll and leads to more profits.

First Inning Pitching Stats

When looking for NRFI bets, the starting pitching matchup is paramount. Some pitchers are locked in early, while others take some time to find a groove and settle in.

NRFI PRO provides bettors with all of the first-inning pitching stats necessary to zero in on a NRFI bet. NRFI PRO tells me what pitchers have been limiting baserunners and limiting contact in the opening frame. I can even pare down the information to see which pitchers are trending in the right – or wrong – direction.

Here’s an example:

From the beginning of the 2024 MLB season through June 2nd, St. Louis Cardinals’ pitcher Kyle Gibson has been unspectacular in the first inning, allowing a .310 opponent average and a concerning 1.64 WHIP. Gibson’s mound opponent for this June 3rd contest, Houston Astros’ Justin Verlander, has been much more reliable in the first inning.

So, for this June 3rd example, many bettors would naturally avoid the NRFI here based purely on Gibson’s subpar numbers.

But, NRFI PRO shows me that over the Last 30 games, Gibson has done a much better job of limiting the opposition in the first inning.

Being able to break down season-long data and discover which pitchers are in good form is key to NRFI betting, and nobody offers this data like NRFI PRO.

Gibson’s pitching-specific NRFI record stood at 2-3 in his first five outings, but he has since gone 5-1, and that trend should be of interest to any NRFI bettor.

First-inning pitching data is constantly flowing, and NRFI PRO has the right pitching data for bettors to grab their “nurfboard” and ride those waves.

Pitching data from NRFI PRO also includes a player profile card that provides a number of baserunners allowed in each NRFI or YRFI.

These numbers can help indicate which pitchers can dance out of danger or which pitchers are allowing little to no base runners to reach in the opening frame.

First Inning Hitting Stats

The starting pitching matchup will almost always be the first factor considered in any NRFI bet. It’s the first thing I look at, too — but the opposing lineups can not be ignored.

After all, these are the players that are being tasked with putting runs up on the scoreboard.

NRFI PRO provides bettors with offensive NRFI records and percentages, first inning batting averages and on-base percentages, and first inning home runs — the ultimate NRFI killer.

As an example, here’s a look at the top-10 teams in offensive NRFI percentage from NRFI PRO.

Like the pitching data, the hitting data can also be broken down into smaller time samples.

Lineup Configurations

The construction of the opposing lineup is also very important. Bettors are looking for six outs and zero runs scored in the first inning to win a NRFI wager, and it’ll always be beneficial to the bettor to know which players are going to step to the plate in each half of the first.

Lineups can vary based on pitching matchups, and some teams are more likely to configure their lineups to attack those matchups with one or more “platoon” bats.

A “platoon hitter” is a player who is historically more successful against a pitcher from the opposite side, such as a right-handed hitter who produces more when a left-handed pitcher is on the mound, or vice versa.

These matchup deployments can alter lineup configurations and should be taken into account by any NRFI bettor.

Also, it’s best for bettors to know what’s going on in the game of baseball. A bettor who knows which players are injured and out of the lineup, which players are likely to be benched for a platoon situation and which managers are more likely to employ those platoon strategies will have an advantage in NRFI betting.

Streaks And Trends

The MLB season is long and is filled with hot streaks and cold streaks, and the same goes for offenses and pitchers.

Here’s an example from NRFI PRO of offensive NRFI records over the last 10 games (as of June 3rd).

These teams have clearly hit a snag in the early scoring department, and it can be tough to back an offense to pick up a first-inning run when they’re taking much longer to manufacture runs; regardless of their pitching matchups.

NRFI PRO is constantly assisting me in finding which offenses are quiet early in games. When spotting two of these lineups going head-to-head, like the St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros for our June 3rd example, that’s where I focus in.

On the pitching side, streaks and trends tell an interesting story in NRFI betting, and Arizona Diamondbacks’ pitcher Ryne Nelson is a prime example.

Nelson went 8-0 to the NRFI in his first eight starts in 2024, but in that time, he has produced a 6.02 ERA—which is actually seventh-worst among all MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings pitched in that time.

Nelson’s first-inning batting average (.143) and WHIP (0.72) look nothing like his season-long numbers (.337 avg. and 1.76 WHIP), so he has certainly been a pitcher to keep an eye on for NRFI betting.

Streaks and trends all come to an end at some point, but NRFI PRO can provide bettors with the right matchup info to help bettors discern whether or not these trends live to see another day.

Line Shopping

Sportsbooks are constantly changing the lines for every wager, and the same goes for NRFI bets.

On NRFI PRO, bettors can find all of the information they need regarding first-inning wagers and where they can find the best odds.

Once again, using this St. Louis-Houston matchup from June 3rd, we can see that the best odds can be found at -115 on bet365.

The odds for a no-run first inning for this matchup were listed at -132 on FanDuel, -125 on DraftKings, -125 on Caesars, and -125 on BetMGM, just to name a few.

A winning $10 NRFI bet on bet365 would payout $18.70, while the same wager on FanDuel would payout $17.58.

By not placing a NRFI for this contest on bet365, bettors are just leaving money on the table.

While the difference between $18.70 and $17.58 may not seem like a large gap to some (6.4%), but over a number of wagers, it certainly makes a big difference for a bettor’s bankroll.

The higher the wager risked, the more money left on the table, so remember to shop around for the best odds.

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All lines are subject to change.

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