The NFL’s shift from a rushing league to a passing league has made it more high-scoring and entertaining for most viewers.

This has also increased the popularity of betting on passing categories, such as which player will lead the league in touchdown passes.

In this guide, we’ll examine the odds of the top candidates to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns for 2024 and explore how each has performed in recent seasons.

Odds to Lead the NFL in TD Passes – 2024

The following quarterbacks are the favorites to record the most touchdown passes this season.

Player	Odds	2023 TD Passes
Patrick Mahones	+500	27
Dak Prescott	+600	36
Joe Burrow	+700	15
C.J. Stroud	+1000	23
Josh Allen	+1200	29
Brock Purdy	+1200	31
Jared Goff	+1500	30
Jordan Love	+1500	32

Patrick Mahomes is the favorite because he has led the league in touchdown passes twice over the course of his six years as a starter.

In 2018, during his first year as a starter, the Texas Tech product threw for 50 touchdowns (tied for the second most ever), 11 more than second-place Andrew Luck.

During the 2022 campaign, Mahomes claimed his second passing touchdown title by throwing for 41, six more than Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.

Dak Prescott is right behind Mahomes in the list of odds after throwing the most (36) during the 2023 regular season.

What is a Passing Touchdown in Betting?

A passing touchdown is when the quarterback makes a forward pass to a player who breaks the plane of the end zone to score a touchdown. A backward pass is considered a rush.

Passing touchdown totals are a popular market to bet on. Bookmakers assign quarterbacks a total (for example, over or under 1.5 TD passes). Bettors can then bet on either option.

Most Passing Touchdowns in a Season

Sportsbooks grade this bet for the regular season only. Playoff stats are not relevant.

After Week 18, most bookmakers will settle bet slips.

Passing TD Leaders 2023

Player	2023 Passing TDs	Team
Dak Prescott	36	DAL Cowboys
Jordan Love	32	GB Packers
Brock Purdy	31	SF 49ers
Jared Goff	30	DET Lions
Josh Allen	29	BUF Bills
Tua Tagovailoa	29	MIA Dolphins
Baker Mayfield	28	TB Buccaneers
Patrick Mahomes	27	KC Chiefs
Russell Wilson	26	DEN Broncos
Derek Carr	25	NO Saints

Who Is the Passing Touchdowns Leader This Year?

The following players have a chance to throw the most touchdowns this year.

2024 Favorites

Patrick Mahomes (+500)

Last year, Mahomes only threw for 27 touchdowns, the second-fewest in his career.

His weak receiving corps, which featured Kadarius Toney and Marques Valdez-Scantling (both are no longer with the team), contributed to the regression.

Rashee Rice was a rookie and ended up becoming Mahomes’ favorite receiver.

He’s developed into a real talent, but aside from seven-time NFL All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, a lack of true weapons last season hurt Mahomes’ chances of leading the league in touchdown passes.

The three-time Super Bowl winner also missed one game.

In the two seasons, Mahomes led the league in touchdown passes, he had superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill at his disposal.

Defenses failed many times in trying to shut down both Hill and Kelce, which led to one of them usually being open.

This year, the Chiefs have bolstered their wide receiver room by drafting speedster Xavier Worthy in the first round (28th overall) and signing Marquis Hollywood Brown (former WR1 for the Ravens and Cardinals).

Worthy recorded the fastest 40-yard dash (4.21 seconds) in NFL Combine history. Rice is also entering his second season and appears to be the WR1 entering the season. Kelce also opted to return to the team in hopes of a three-peat.

With an arsenal of weapons and offensive genius Andy Reid at the helm, it’s obvious why Mahomes is the favorite to lead the NFL in touchdown passes.

Dak Prescott (+600)

Prescott, the 2023 leader in touchdown passes (36), is second on the board at +600.

The 2023 MVP candidate’s (finished second) top two weapons are back: CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. Lamb, a three-time Pro Bowler, led the NFL in receptions (143) and finished second in receiving yards (1,749) and touchdowns (12).

Cooks might be past his prime, but he’s a solid WR2 who’s previously made the Pro Bowl and can be relied upon.

Prescott threw his 36 touchdowns in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s first season after taking over for Kellen Moore. Schottenheimer is back, which helps Prescott’s case for going back-to-back.

Tight end Jake Ferguson proved to be a bright spot and exceeded expectations in 2023. He’s also set to be the team’s starting tight end once again.

The major question is whether Dallas can consistently establish the run to open up the passing lanes. Tony Pollard, the starting running back in 2023, departed for Tennessee.

The Cowboys now have a decision to make between an inexperienced Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott, who returned to the team (spent 2023 with New England) and newly signed running back Dalvin Cook.

Joe Burrow (+700)

The large question mark surrounding the Cincinnati quarterback is whether his wrist is fully healed.

Last year, Burrow tore ligaments in his right wrist (he throws right-handed) during Week 11 against Baltimore, which sidelined him for the remainder of the year.

Burrow threw 35 and 34 touchdown passes the two seasons prior. He also has a talented receiving corps with Pro Bowler Ja’Marr Chase (a former LSU teammate) and Tee Higgins.

2024 Contenders

C.J. Stroud (+1000)

The 2023 No. 2 overall pick orchestrated a tremendous campaign with Houston by throwing for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and featuring a passer rating of 100.8.

Stroud managed to achieve these stats despite missing two contests due to injury.

Nico Collins established himself as Houston’s top wide receiver by recording 80 receptions for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns.

Tank Dell, entering his second year, shredded opposing secondaries in 2023 before tearing his ACL. Dell is expected to be healthy for 2024 and isn’t set to have a limited snap count to start the season.

Houston’s front office provided Stroud with another huge weapon during the 2024 offseason: Four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs.

Diggs has recorded six straight 1,000-yard seasons and, since 2017, has caught eight or more touchdowns every year except in 2019 (six).

With two star wide receivers and rising talent Dell, the sky is the limit for Stroud.

Brock Purdy (+1200)

Talk shows across the country debated whether Brock Purdy was the right option for the San Francisco 49ers at quarterback for most of the 2023 season.

After leading his team to the Super Bowl and throwing for the third-most touchdowns (31) in the NFL despite missing one game, many pundits who doubted him have gone quiet.

The third-year pro definitely has a chance to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns thanks to a great offensive line, a plethora of weapons and being coached by offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan.

NFL rushing yards leader Christian McCaffrey helps open up the play action, causing opponents to have nightmares when attempting to cover Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle.

Jordan Love (+1500)

Filling the shoes of four-time MVP and Super Bowl champion Aaron Rodgers is no easy feat.

Love hasn’t won any MVPs or a Lombardi Trophy, but he did exceed expectations massively in his first year as the starter.

The Utah State product finished second in the league in touchdown passes (32) and threw for 4,159 yards while achieving a 96.1 passer rating.

He also reached the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs and knocked off the No. 2 seed Dallas Cowboys in the Wildcard Round.

The Packers have equipped Love with an offense full of young and talented receivers, including Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks.

It’s up to Love to continue his consistent play in Matt LaFleur’s system. The head coach has led the Packers to the playoffs four times in five years.

How Anytime TD PRO Can Help

If you’re looking to improve your chances of winning against sportsbooks, having the right tools is essential.

Whether you’re betting props or parlays, there are resources that can help you, like Anytime TD PRO.

It’s one of the most complete and easy-to-use tools for betting on Anytime TD scorers , and it includes Passing TD stats per team, updated daily.

If you’re serious about increasing your chances of success, it’s worth considering.

Always Shop Around

Shopping for the best possible odds is imperative when sports betting and applies to every wager type.

For example, if you bet on Mahomes to lead the league in passing at +500 odds at BetMGM because it was the first line you came across, you’d be doing yourself a big disservice.

If DraftKings offered him at +650, and these were the best odds available, you’d want to stake him there.

A $10 dollar bet at BetMGM would win you $50 (+500), whereas with +650 odds, you’d win $65.

Odds shopping can help boost your bankroll, make you more money in the long run and save you money.

At BestOdds, we have an odds shopping tool to help you find the best available price across all sportsbooks for spreads, moneylines and totals. It also displays the potential payouts.

Remember to bet responsibly and manage your bankroll carefully.

NFL Total Passing Touchdowns Leaders – Past 10 Years

Year	Player	Total Passing TDs	Team
2023	Dak Prescott	36	DAL Cowboys
2022	Patrick Mahomes	41	KC Chiefs
2021	Tom Brady	43	TB Buccaneers
2020	Aaron Rodgers	48	GB Packers
2019	Lamar Jackson	36	BAL Ravens
2018	Patrick Mahomes	50	KC Chiefs
2017	Russell Wilson	34	SEA Seahawks
2016	Aaron Rodgers	40	GB Packers
2015	Tom Brady	36	NE Patriots
2014	Andrew Luck	40	IND Colts

How to Bet on Most Passing TDs

Here’s how you can place a wager on who will lead the league in passing touchdowns for 2024:

1. Log into your sportsbook account.

2. Go to the BestOdds Odds Hub and click on the ‘NFL’ tab.

3. Go to the ‘Player Futures’ section.

4. Select the ‘Most Passing TDs’ option.

5. Pick the quarterback you want to bet on.

6. Place the wager using the bet slip shown on the right-hand side of your screen (make sure to review it before clicking confirm).