2025 MLB Home Run Leader Betting Odds

Whether you’re a total baseball junkie or a casual fan who might catch a few games a season, there’s universal agreement among anyone who pays attention to baseball: home runs are pretty damn cool.

In the world of baseball, home runs are one of the statistics that resonate most with observers of the game.

Apparently, a lot of people are interested in seeing how far a man can send a small object hurtling through the Earth’s atmosphere after swatting at it with a wooden stick.

If you’re one of those people, you can take your affinity for home runs and potentially earn a nice little profit in the process.

Here, we’ll detail everything you need to know about betting on MLB’s Home Run Leader and how you can add some extra excitement to the MLB season.

Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.

How is the Winner Decided?

Unlike yearly MLB awards such as the Most Valuable Player or the Cy Young, the MLB Home Run Leader is determined by who hits the most home runs during the league’s 162-game regular season.

In sports betting, the winner is the player who finishes the season with the highest number of home runs. In the event of a tie, the payout is typically reduced, often split in half, but be sure to review your sportsbook’s dead heat rules for exact details.

While some sportsbooks may offer bets on who will lead the American League or National League in home runs, this particular wager covers the entire MLB.

MLB Home Run Leaders Betting Odds

Aaron Judge (NYY) – The Frontrunner (+400) at DraftKings

Aaron Judge has led the majors in home runs in two of the last three seasons. The only year he didn’t lead the league in long balls was a season in which he missed 60 games due to injury.

It’s no surprise that Judge is once again the favorite to top MLB in home runs.

Ultimately, this bet comes down to how many games you think No. 99 will play this season.

The magic number for Judge is 155. He hit 52, 62, and 58 home runs in the three seasons he played at least 155 games. In all other seasons, he failed to reach 40 home runs when playing fewer than that number of games.

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) – The Contender (+600) at DraftKings

If there’s anyone in baseball who could truly push Judge in a home run chase, Shohei Ohtani would certainly be at the top of that list.

Ohtani is coming off one of the best seasons in MLB history, posting 54 home runs, 130 RBI, and 59 stolen bases. He now plays on the deepest team in baseball, with weapons up and down the lineup.

It remains to be seen how much Ohtani will pitch this season as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery.

However, he is firmly established as the Dodgers’ designated hitter and will have plenty of opportunities to chase another 50-plus home run season. That alone makes him a strong contender for the league lead.

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) – The Sneaky Value Guy (+1200) at DraftKings

Kyle Schwarber, the modern-day beer league slugger, continues to be a steady home run hitter year after year.

After hitting 46 home runs in 2022 and 47 in 2023, Schwarber’s total dipped to a modest 38 last season. However, that drop can largely be attributed to him missing 12 games.

For those looking to go a bit contrarian and avoid the top two public bets in Judge and Ohtani, the Phillies’ designated hitter offers solid value at +1200 to lead the league in home runs.

Juan Soto (NYM) – The Dark Horse (+2800) at DraftKings

The biggest free agent prize of the offseason traded in his Yankee pinstripes for the orange and blue of the cross-town Mets. He’s now one of the best long-shot bets you can make if you’re looking to potentially score a big win with low risk.

Soto hit a career-high 41 home runs last season, playing in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. It also helped having Aaron Judge threatening pitchers behind him.

However, even with those factors gone in 2025, Soto’s potential to explode in any given season remains a very real possibility.

Would it surprise anyone if Soto hit nearly 50 home runs this season? Probably not, given his trajectory over the past few seasons.

Stranger things have happened in baseball, and a $5 bet on Soto would return $140 if this particular strange thing happened. Worth the risk? I’d say so.

The Notable Longshots

While the four players above deserve a lot of attention, they aren’t the only ones worth considering as contenders for the home run crown. Courtesy of DraftKings, here are 12 other names to keep an eye on this season.

Player	Team	Betting Odds
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Padres	+1800
Kirk Alonso	Mets	+1900
Yordan Alvarez	Astros	+2000
Brent Rooker	Athletics	+3000
Anthony Santander	Blue Jays	+3000
Matt Olson	Braves	+3000
Kyle Tucker	Cubs	+3000
Gunnar Henderson	Orioles	+3000
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Blue Jays	+3500
Bryce Harper	Phillies	+4000
Jose Ramirez	Guardians	+4000
Mike Trout	Angels	+5000

Previous MLB Home Run Leaders

Dating back to 2015, here’s a look at who led Major League Baseball in home runs for each respective season.

It’s also worth noting that the 2020 MLB season had a home run leader with only 22 home runs, due to the shortened season caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Only once in the last 10 seasons (2021) has there been a shared home run lead at the end of the MLB season.

Year	Player	Home Runs
2024	Aaron Judge (Yankees)	58
2023	Matt Olson (Braves)	54
2022	Aaron Judge (Yankees)	62
2021	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) and Salvador Perez (Royals)	48
2020*	Luke Voit (Yankees)	22
2019	Pete Alonso (Mets)	53
2018	Khris Davis (Athletics)	48
2017	Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins)	59
2016	Mark Trumbo (Orioles)	47
2015	Chris Davis	47

* – The 2020 MLB season was shortened due to the COVID-19 pandemic

How to Bet On The MLB Home Run Leader

To bet on who leads MLB in home runs , follow these steps:

1. Go to your preferred sportsbook and log into your account.
2. Select the MLB Odds’ tab option in the betting menu.
3. Go to the ‘Futures’ drop-down menu.
4. Click on MLB Home Runs Leader (or something similar).’
5. Choose your bet and place it in the bet-slip window.