If you told me the Kansas City Chiefs would only win 11 games last season before going on a run and winning the Super Bowl for a second straight year, I would not have agreed with you.

But that’s exactly what happened!

As you can see below, a team has needed 13 or 14 wins in recent years to earn the best regular-season record.

NFL Regular Season Records – Last Five Seasons

2023	Baltimore Ravens	13-4
2022	Kansas City Chiefs / Philadelphia Eagles	14-3
2021	Green Bay Packers / Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13-4
2020	Kansas City Chiefs	14-2
2019	Baltimore Ravens	14-2

The last time a team won 15 games in a season was back in 2015 – and if you can believe it, it was the Carolina Panthers, who are now arguably the worst team in football.

And it was just a year earlier that five teams finished the season with a 12-4 record, which was tops in the league.

Like most professional sports, you don’t have to be the best team during the regular season to win a championship.

Best NFL Win Total Bets This Season

Kansas City Chiefs – 13.5 Wins: OVER

Until the Chiefs show me otherwise, I believe they are the best team in the NFL.

I can back that up with the fact bookmakers have them as the favorite to win the Super Bowl once again.

It helps that Patrick Mahomes has legitimate wide receiver threats this season in Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.

Through three weeks of play, the Chiefs had yet to lose a game with wins over Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Atlanta.

I believe they will end the regular season with the best record of any team, which means they should reach at least 13 wins.

I like them surpassing that total. 

San Francisco 49ers – 10.5 Wins: OVER

Injury concerns for the 49ers early in the season have many people worried about them. But oddsmakers aren’t overly bothered by their slow start.

Through Week 3, they remain the second favorite to win the Super Bowl.

And despite beginning the season with just one win in their first three games, this team is arguably the most talented in the NFC.

Once they get healthy, I can see San Fran going on a run and easily surpassing the 10.5-win total.

Dallas Cowboys – 9.5 Wins: OVER

Heading into the season, the Dallas Cowboys were considered Super Bowl contenders.

Dak Prescott signed a massive contract before the campaign began and everything seemed rosy.

They won their season opener handily over the Cleveland Browns before losing their next two contests.

Their run defense through three weeks was the worst in the NFL.

I believe the Cowboys will clean that up and become the contender they were supposed to be. Take the over 9.5 wins. 

Cincinnati Bengals – 8.5 Wins: UNDER

Who had the Cincinnati Bengals losing their first three games of the season?

I certainly didn’t, especially considering two of those contests were against the New England Patriots and Washington Commanders.

But the Bengals look like a team in turmoil, and it all began before the season even started. Star receiver Ja’Marr Chase held out as he was dealing with a contract extension.

Cincinnati has a tough schedule and reaching nine wins this season may prove to be too tough of a task.

Carolina Panthers – 4.5 Wins: UNDER

The Panthers are a long way from that 15-1 season they had nearly a decade ago.

Last year, they won just two games with the 2023 first-overall pick, Bryce Young, at the helm. And things don’t look much better this season.

Following their bye in Week 11, they are faced with an extremely tough schedule including games vs. Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Dallas.

Don’t expect much from this team as they will likely compete for the worst regular season record again this year.

What Is Win Totals Betting?

Betting on an NFL team’s win total means we are betting OVER or UNDER on the total wins assigned to them by a sportsbook.

The Kansas City Chiefs have a win total of 13.5

As a bettor, we decide if they will win more or less than the 13.5 games set by the books.

It’s just that easy.

Pick Your Spots

There are 32 NFL Teams. Some of them you might feel passionate about and believe you have a good understanding of what their future entails.

Other teams (insert the entire NFC South here), maybe you just don’t care about them.

Pick your spots with your bets. Understand your strengths and weaknesses from a knowledge standpoint.

• Bet what you know.
• Track your bets
• Learn from your mistakes
• Repeat

Line Shopping

Make sure you don’t just settle on the first set of odds you see. Shop around for the best NFL odds.

Depending on what you want to bet on, when you look on different sites, you will likely find a better number.

For example, if you think the Chiefs will win more than 13.5 games, then don’t bet them at DraftKings when Bet365 has them listed at 12.5.

The same goes for Carolina – some sites have their win total at 4.5, while others have them at 5.5.

So, shop around for your best odds and get every edge you can over the sportsbooks.

Recency Bias

Try to avoid recency bias when making your betting decisions.

Recency bias means the performances of a player or team in the recent past affect bettors’ decisions on a current wager.

Inflated Lines

These are the byproducts of public bettors going heavy on one team.

Recency bias may impact that. Bettors can use this to find value by fading the public and getting bigger payouts.

Use Tools to Make Win Totals Projections

As NFL fans and NFL bettors, we all get excited for Sunday, and the chance to dive through a full slate of NFL games, look over the point spreads, moneylines, totals, and everything else we are interested in betting on.

How often do we see a game, see a point spread, and make a betting decision- without actually doing any homework at all?

This type of betting is sometimes called “An 8-second handicap”.

One of the main reasons people will handicap a game within 8 seconds or less, is because the work involved in digging up relevant stats and information can be time-consuming and difficult.

If you are into NFL Win Totals betting, you no longer have an excuse to make your decisions without diving through some information first.

Sportsbooks always have the advantage, thanks largely to the hours of research they do to ensure betting lines are set at the proper number.

Most bettors don’t have that much time to spend in front of a computer trying to figure out how to beat the system.

That’s where tools like Anytime TD PRO come into play. Check out this comprehensive, user-friendly app to give you a better chance to win your touchdown prop wagers.