Are Hyper-Efficient Ravens More Lucky Than Good?

Or are they the master of the little things that we typically don’t focus on for projection purposes?

There is a stat that puts into one bucket all the little things that we normally don’t think much of for projection purposes – field position, penalties, kicking game, punt returns and punt coverage, red zone success, third-down success, sacks, and, yes, turnovers.

(Turnovers are great at describing who won but good luck in predicting how turnovers will sort out in any game.)

When teams are super efficient at converting yards into points (the NFL average is a point every 15.4 yards) and/or requiring the opponent to gain more yards than average per point, that means that they’re doing most if not all of these things well.

Subtracting the defensive number (where higher is better) from the offensive number (where lower is better) gives us one team number for overall scoring efficiency.

Yards Per Point

The Ravens are 12.84 yards per point on offense (second best after the Cowboys) and force their opponents to gain 18.38 yards per point on defense (NFL best).

That team efficiency number of 5.54 is by far the best in football.

Their advantage vs. second-best San Francisco is greater than the difference between the eighth and the 18th teams.

Here’s the entire list through Week 17:

Rk	Tm	Yards Per Point For	Yards per Point Against	Total
1	Baltimore Ravens	12.84	18.38	5.54
2	San Francisco 49ers	13.74	17.72	3.98
3	Dallas Cowboys	12.48	16.11	3.64
4	Buffalo Bills	13.7	16.66	2.95
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15.02	17.39	2.37
6	Las Vegas Raiders	14.96	16.84	1.88
7	New Orleans Saints	15.06	16.69	1.62
8	Denver Broncos	13.95	15.4	1.45
9	Cincinnati Bengals	15.21	16.55	1.35
10	Green Bay Packers	14.87	16.14	1.27
11	Jacksonville Jaguars	15.15	16.04	0.88
12	Pittsburgh Steelers	17.02	17.81	0.79
13	Philadelphia Eagles	13.53	14.06	0.53
14	Kansas City Chiefs	15.93	16.22	0.28
15	Seattle Seahawks	15.05	15.31	0.25
16	Houston Texans	15.58	15.75	0.18
17	Indianapolis Colts	14.23	14.39	0.16
18	Los Angeles Rams	15.27	15.25	-0.02
19	Miami Dolphins	13.58	13.35	-0.24
20	Los Angeles Chargers	15.71	15.33	-0.38
21	Detroit Lions	14.69	14.04	-0.65
22	Minnesota Vikings	16.86	15.91	-0.95
23	Chicago Bears	15.11	14.03	-1.08
24	Tennessee Titans	16.56	15.37	-1.18
25	Cleveland Browns	14.31	12.89	-1.42
26	Atlanta Falcons	17.41	15.56	-1.85
27	Arizona Cardinals	16.27	13.18	-3.09
28	Washington Commanders	16.1	12.86	-3.25
29	New York Jets	17.18	13.78	-3.4
30	New York Giants	18.18	14.74	-3.44
31	New England Patriots	19.64	13.96	-5.68
32	Carolina Panthers	18.27	11.72	-6.55

The Ravens are eighth in third-down conversions on offense, and seventh in red zone conversions on offense.

And on defense in those stats, they are sixth and second, respectively. Shockingly, given they have Justin Tucker, they have allowed a higher field goal percentage than Tucker’s. (The opponent field-goal percentage is the luckiest of stats.)

The Ravens are 23rd in turnover percentage on offense and fourth-best on defense. (Opponent turnovers are mostly random.)

Penalties are a wash. Return TDs on special teams and defense for vs. allowed are a wash.

The Ravens have a big edge in the low-key most important stat in football – sacks (20 more by their defense than allowed).

So it’s conversion rate (third down and red zone), turnovers, and sacks that are causing the Ravens to have such a massive edge here.

Should we expect the Ravens in the postseason to continue to dominate in these areas?

Let’s see what happened in their three losses (Colts, at Steelers, Browns).

They won sacks in the three games 13-10. They won the red zone 50% to 33%. T

hey lost third downs 41.5% to 34.2%. But most importantly, they lost turnover 7-3.

The QBs who beat them were Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, and DeShaun Watson, an unimpressive trio we wouldn’t expect to limit turnovers, showing how unstable that stat can be.

Is Scoring Efficiency Another Feather in Lamar’s Cap?

We can argue that the Ravens are simply well-coached.

They limit their pass attempts (which cuts their turnover risk and sacks), throwing 148 fewer times than their opponents.

Their running game is efficient enough to present makeable third downs; Baltimore has faced 82 offensive thirds and longs vs. the 101 opponents that have attempted to convert against their defense.

And 28.3% of Baltimore’s third downs are third and short vs. 25.5% by opponents.

Their running strength (third in efficiency) is key to their red zone success.

We can also reason that the offensive side of the stat is arguably driven by QB play and the Ravens have the league MVP in Lamar Jackson.

Consider that the Patriots for nearly 20 years dominated this stat with startling consistency when Tom Brady was under their control.

This year, with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe, the Patriots rank 31st in the statistics.