Net Explosives Key NFL Victories

Explosive plays are the game within the game in the NFL.

The team that has the most gains of at least 20 yards is typically going to win.

Consider that the seven teams at least plus-10 in explosive play differential (all happen to be plus-15 or better) are 62-29 (a 12-win pace) and teams that are at least minus-10 or worse in the stat (there are also seven) are 38-53 (a seven-win pace).

That’s the kind of separation we want on the opposite ends of the spectrum if a stat is meaningful.

Let’s look at how all the teams rank, from the No. 1 49ers (plus-27) to the No. 32 Bengals (minus-27).

RK	Tm	O Plays	O Pass	O Rush	D Plays	D Pass	D Rush	Net Plays
1	SFO	70	61	9	43	36	7	27
2	DET	66	54	12	46	41	5	20
3	MIA	64	49	15	45	41	4	19
5	HOU	64	61	3	48	45	3	16
3	DAL	63	53	10	44	38	6	19
8	LAR	61	53	8	53	45	8	8
5	BAL	56	41	15	40	33	7	16
19	LAC	54	46	8	58	49	9	-4
7	MIN	53	50	3	38	37	1	15
11	TEN	52	45	7	49	44	5	3
12	PHI	52	44	8	50	45	5	2
21	SEA	52	43	9	57	47	10	-5
13	JAX	50	42	8	49	41	8	1
19	GNB	49	39	10	53	39	14	-4
29	WAS	48	40	8	63	53	10	-15
16	BUF	46	39	7	48	37	11	-2
24	IND	46	37	9	54	46	8	-8
27	TAM	45	42	3	57	54	3	-12
9	KAN	44	38	6	39	33	6	5
14	ATL	43	37	6	44	36	8	-1
21	NYG	43	33	10	48	36	12	-5
18	NOR	42	39	3	44	33	11	-2
28	PIT	42	31	11	56	50	6	-14
10	CHI	41	33	8	37	33	4	4
17	CLE	41	33	8	43	29	14	-2
21	ARI	40	25	15	45	37	8	-5
29	DEN	40	31	9	55	41	14	-15
32	CIN	39	34	5	66	54	12	-27
15	NYJ	36	30	6	37	27	10	-1
24	CAR	30	25	5	38	29	9	-8
26	LVR	28	24	4	38	29	9	-10
29	NWE	28	25	3	43	39	4	-15

There is no losing team at the top of the chart (Niners, Lions, Cowboys, Dolphins, Ravens, Texans, Vikings).

But the Texans and Vikings are probably stronger than we perceive given their strength in big-play differential.

The Vikings have allowed a league-low one run of 20-plus yards and the second-fewest big plays overall at 38 (one more than the Bears).

Will Houston And Minnesota Continue Their Edge?

The Texans incredibly are tied with the 49ers with 61 big-passing plays (4.7 per game).

They are banged up at wide receiver now so we can’t say this is predictive with full confidence.

And you can say the Vikings’ offensive stats are positively impacted by Kirk Cousins, who is now out for the year (Achilles).

This is another stat screaming that the Niners are an all-time team.

They are just crushing the field here, as they were last week in our net-NY/A stats.

Eagles Disappoint In Net Explosives

More interestingly, this is also another data point screaming that the 10-3 Eagles are more deserving of a 7-6 record given they are barely above water in net explosives, as they also are in point differential and net yards per pass play (net-NY/A).

The narrative with the Eagles is that the tough part of their schedule is over and they are poised to run the table against weak teams (Seattle, two games against the Giants and Washington).

But I can find no predictive data other than wins that suggests the Eagles are a slam-dunk winner against any team right now.

At minus-10 or worse you have a bunch of teams that are putative playoff contenders: the Bengals (32nd), Broncos (T-29th), and Bucs (27th).

The Colts (24th) are minus-8 and the Seahawks (21st) minus-5.

Beware The Rams

A team that’s helped now by being better/healthier at the moment than in the past, generally, is the Rams.

They’re plus-8 but give them a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, and Cooper Kupp all year and they’re probably plus-10 or even plus-15 in net explosives.

On just offense, the Rams rank sixth (61). A case can be made that they would be tied with the Niners (70) or damn close with better health (which, again, they now have).

The Rams are plus-160 to make the playoffs. That loss in Baltimore was brutal but they played well.

They have the Commanders, Saints, the Giants, and the Niners (a game the Niners may not need). It seems likely the Rams will finish 9-8. That’s probably good enough.

Los Angeles is potentially a dangerous January team, too, given their big-play ability.

The team that’s the Eagles of the AFC is the Chiefs and they are also very average in the stat.

Kansas City is 19th in explosive plays on offense with just 44, or one more than the Giants (incredible).

They’re seventh in fewest big plays allowed but you’d always rather be better on offense than on defense in all stats because offensive stats are more predictive.