Three Live Super Bowl Longshots

While the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens go into the NFL playoffs as the favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, jumping on those bandwagons right now offers scant value to the sports bettor.

In a 12-team field, San Francisco is scarcely 2-to-1 at most sportsbooks’ Super Bowl boards and the Ravens are just a tick over 3-to-1.

A lot can go wrong for those teams, from injuries at key positions to turnovers, to fluke plays, and a stumble by either of them opens up a clear path for the rest of the contenders in either conference.

So, to grab a little value, let’s zero in on a few live longshots, keeping in mind that the smartest thing any bettor can do is to shop around for the best lines.

Where better to do that than at BestOdds? (Odds at major sportsbooks as of Thursday morning)

Cleveland Browns – From +2800 To +3300

This squad gets no respect from the ‘books.

Consider the odds on the other 11-win teams in the field. Buffalo is at +650 while Kansas City is getting +900.

Nobody thinks much of a team riding behind a 38-year-old quarterback who was sitting on his New Jersey couch just a couple of months ago.

But Joe Flacco is playing an awful lot like the last time he led a team to a Super Bowl victory 11 years ago with the Ravens.

While he’ll eventually run into tougher defences, that won’t happen right away. Just a few weeks ago, he torched the Houston Texans for 368 yards and three touchdowns as the Browns lit up the scoreboard with 36 points on Christmas Eve. 

And at this elevated price, you get arguably the best defense in the NFL.

While Cleveland’s defensive dominance waned at the end of the season, it still finished No. 1 in the league in total defense and has Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett on hand to wreak havoc in opponents’ backfields.

If Flacco can avoid mistakes – he threw eight interceptions and fumbled four times in just five starts – this isn’t a team that figures to get blown out in any game given the talent on the defensive side.

That means you’ve always got a chance and, at these odds, that’s a great first step.

Los Angeles Rams – From +4000 To +5000

The Rams went into the preseason as one of the longest shots on the board, with odds in the +7000 range many places, but they have gone 7-1 since their bye to get to this point, rolling behind an offence that ranks second only to the 49ers since the start of the second half.

The Rams won it all just two seasons ago and quarterback Matthew Stafford is starting to enjoy an array of weapons similar to what he had then with the emergence of running back Kyren Williams and wideout Puka Nacua to go with Cooper Kupp.

He also can rely on Sean McVay, one of the most creative play callers in the league.

Nacua just set NFL records for catches and receiving yards by a rookie.

Kupp’s dip in production mostly has been the result of Nacua’s emergence, but he’s healthy now and Stafford still loves to look for him when it counts.

His 19 red-zone targets in 12 games ranks top 10 in the league. Don’t forget: he was the Super Bowl MVP two seasons ago.

The defense is just OK, but coordinator Raheem Morris has made the best of limited talent and is garnering plenty of interest from other teams searching for a head coach.

Aaron Donald can still wreak havoc on an opponent’s front and he’ll force teams to double-team him as usual, making the rest of the team’s defenders better.

The Rams will have to win three straight road games, but none of them figure to be in bad weather and they have played the 49ers tough.

Green Bay Packers – From +6600 To +10000

Seems crazy, right?

This team has awful special teams and a mediocre defense, but it also has the hottest young quarterback in the game.

Jordan Love has been the second-best QB in the league since Week 9, according to Pro Football Focus rankings, and Matt LaFleur is one of the better play callers in the league, one of the few offensive minds out there who can match up with San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan and McVay.

On top of that, Aaron Jones is finally healthy, giving Love the ability to fall back on the run game when things sputter through the air or the opponent sells out to cover his receivers.

Compared to the other longshots on the board, this is a team that can score with the teams at the top of the board and there are parallels with the 2010 Packers team that won it all as the No. 6 seed behind 27-year-old Aaron Rodgers.

It’s going to take three road wins to get it done, but that’s exactly what Rodgers and that 2010 team did.

At these prices, it’s worth taking a shot that history will repeat.