NFL Conference Championship 2025 Parlay

A conference title and trip to Super Bowl LIX are on the line Sunday for the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, and Commanders.

Philadelphia hosts Washington (3:00 p.m. ET) in the NFC Championship, and Kansas City hosts Buffalo (6:30 p.m. ET) in the AFC Championship.

We’ve crafted up a same-game parlay for the AFC Championship below. The players included are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Khalil Shakir.

Remember to bet responsibly and carefully monitor your bankroll.

Read our Conference Title Round NFL odds and prop picks for more information regarding this Sunday’s action.

Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.

AFC Championship Parlay

Mahomes 200+ pass yds, Allen 1+ TD pass and Shakir 25+ rec yds (-131 at FanDuel)

Mahomes’ Outlook (200+ Pass Yards)

The former Texas Tech product has hit this mark in 16-of-19 (84.2%) playoff appearances.

During the 2024 regular season, he recorded 200 or more pass yards in 12/16 (75%) contests and averaged 245.5 yards per game.

The three-time Super Bowl champ will be at Arrowhead Stadium, where he’s hit at least 200 yards in all but one of the eight home games.

Mahomes’ opponent, Buffalo, has allowed 13/19 (68.42%) quarterbacks to hit the 200-yard mark against them (including the regular season and playoffs).

During the regular season, the Bills ranked ninth-worst against the pass and surrendered an average of 226.1 yards per game. With the postseason included, it climbs up to 236.74.

Mahomes’ only regular season loss as a starter was away to Buffalo in Week 11 (30-21) when he recorded 196 yards on 23-of-33 passing.

He recorded fewer pass attempts (33) than in any of the remaining regular season games (threw at least 37), and wide receiver Hollywood Brown was injured.

With Brown back, and Mahomes at home with clear weather and low winds forecasted, 200+ pass yards seem very attainable.

Kansas City is only a 1.5-point favorite, and the game total is set at 48.5 points. If oddsmakers are accurate, this projects a back-and-forth game with plenty of passing.

Mahomes’ regular pass yards total is listed between 249.5 and 255.5 yards by most operators.

Allen’s Outlook (1+ TD Pass)

Buffalo’s gunslinger ended the regular season with 28 touchdown passes in 16 contests (1.75 per game).

Allen recorded at least one or more touchdown passes in 14-of-16 (87.5%) contests, including the last time he faced Kansas City (he threw one) in Week 11.

The Chiefs surrendered at least one touchdown pass in 14/17 (82.35%) outings and averaged 1.33 touchdown passes per game against them.

Kansas City’s defense has been extremely stout against the run this season, both inside and outside of the red zone, by allowing just 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game and 4.1 yards per carry.

This might force the Bills to attack them through the air, giving Allen more opportunities to throw a touchdown pass.

The Chiefs secondary has shown susceptibility against the pass during the second half of the season.

Buffalo’s total touchdowns are listed at 2.5 with -141 odds (58.51% implied odds) for the over.

Khalil Shakir’s Outlook (25+ Receiving Yards)

Despite acquiring Amari Cooper via a trade and drafting Keon Coleman 33rd overall, Khalil Shakir is the Bills clearcut WR1 and Allen’s favorite target.

Shakir ended the regular season with 76 receptions for 821 yards in 15 games and averaged 54.7 yards per game.

The Boise State product has earned a 26.5% first-read share, 80% catch rate, 6.5 targets and 5.17 receptions per game, including the playoffs.

During the postseason, Shakir has posted stat lines of six receptions for 67 yards (Divisional Round) and six receptions for 61 yards (Wild Card Round).

The last time he played the Chiefs in Week 11, he posted an impressive eight receptions for 70 yards on 12 targets.

Shakir’s standard receiving yards total is set between 54.5 and 56.5 on most sportsbooks.

Oddsmakers also list his receptions total between 4.5 and 5.5, with “over 4.5” being listed as juiced as -170 (62.96% implied odds).

Over the past five weeks, Kansas City’s defense has allowed 12 receivers to record at least 25 or more yards.

Last week against the Texans, it surrendered 81 yards to Nico Collins, 52 yards to Xavier Hutchinson, and 35 yards to John Metchie III.

Note: The combinations in this parlay were unavailable at other sportsbooks during the time of writing.