Lawrence Smelser
Updated: Sep 21, 2024
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It’s been an exciting first few weeks of the NFL season, and the fireworks should continue this Sunday.
We’ll provide an alternate yards parlay featuring three wide receivers with favorable matchups.
Last week, we came close to starting the year out 2-0 for parlays, but Zamir White finished ONE yard short.
Remember to bet responsibly, shop around for the best odds and carefully manage your bankroll.
Week 3 Parlay: Alternate Yards Parlay
The featured parlay contains picks requiring each player to record a minimum amount of receiving yards.
All three selections must successfully hit in order to cash. The odds were correct at the time of writing.
Jameson Williams 25+ rec yds, CeeDee Lamb 50+ rec yds and Devonta Smith 50+ rec yds (-115 at FanDuel)
Jameson Williams’ Outlook (25+ rec yds)
After two weeks, it’s clear that so far, it’s been “Jameson Williams SZN” in Detroit. Through the first two games, the Alabama product has been targeted 20 times.
In Week 1 against the Rams, Williams made five receptions (9 targets) for 121 yards.
Last week, he recorded 79 yards on five catches (11 targets). After two weeks, he’s averaging an impressive 100 yards per game.
After a slow start to his career due to an ACL injury and a suspension, Williams is becoming the athletic speedster and home run threat Detroit envisioned when the franchise selected him with the 12th overall pick in the 2022 draft.
In his past five regular-season games dating back to last season, he’s eclipsed 25 yards receiving in every one of them.
The Lions (1-1) are three-point favorites this week away to the Cardinals (1-1). The close spread promotes a game script involving Jared Goff passing frequently. Goff’s total is set at 34.5 pass attempts.
So far, Williams has torn up opposing secondaries and ranks sixth in separation and ninth in route win rate (H/T Derek Brown).
He’s quickly become one of Goff’s favorite targets thanks to his 34.8% first-read share and 23.8% target share.
On most books, Williams’ regular receiving yards total for this week is set at 54.5.
This leg of the parlay is -520 on FanDuel for Williams to record the 25+ receiving yards.
On other operators such as Caesars, Williams is -650 (86.67% implied odds) to have 30+ receiving yards.
The following data models from some of the top sources in the industry showcase the following projections.
Jameson Williams’ Week 3 projections
- ESPN: 65 yards
- FantasyPros: 61.3 yards
- Yahoo: 60 yards
- Action Network: 57 yards
- BettingPros: 55.1 yards
- Numberfire: 54.7 yards
CeeDee Lamb’s Outlook (50+ rec yds)
Dallas’ superstar wideout recorded 61 yards in Week 1 against a tough Cleveland secondary (Dallas won 33-17) and 90 yards in a 44-19 blowout loss last week against New Orleans.
In those two games, Lamb was targeted 10 and seven times. Those numbers seem impressive and are for a typical WR1, but after last season’s Week 7 bye, Lamb averaged 12.63 targets per game.
He led the league in receptions (135) and finished second in receiving yards (1,749), just 50 yards behind Miami’s Tyreek Hill.
Since the Week 7 bye, the former 17th overall pick has recorded 50 or more yards in 12-of-13 (92.3%) contests.
This Sunday, the Cowboys will play the Ravens, who rank first in the NFL in defending the run, allowing an average of just 49.5 yards per game.
This will force Dak Prescott to target Lamb frequently, and he should easily finish with more than 10 targets.
The Ravens haven’t defended WR1s well through two games and rank dead last against the pass, surrendering 257 yards per game.
Through two weeks, opposing top wideouts have averaged 106.5 yards against Baltimore’s secondary.
WR1s vs. Ravens
Week/Opponent | Receiver | Receptions/Yards |
Week 1 @ KC | Rashee Rice | 7 rec, 103 yards |
Week 2 vs. BAL | Davante Adams | 9 rec, 110 yards |
Baltimore will be desperate for a win at 0-2 and are listed as 1.5-point favorites. This also will probably lead to a game-script with Lamb being heavily involved.
So far, Dallas has dominated and been routed and Lamb has still easily surpassed the 50-yard mark.
This leg of the parlay is -500 at FanDuel. It’s an excellent price with other books, such as Caesars featuring the Oklahoma product at -650, to also record 50 or more receiving yards.
CeeDee Lamb’s Week 3 projections:
- ESPN: 100 yards
- FantasyPros: 88.8 yards
- Yahoo: 87.8 yards
- Numberfire: 85.9 yards
- BettingPros: 82.6 yards
- Action Network: 78 yards
Devonta Smith’s Outlook (50+ rec yds)
The former Heisman Trophy winner is widely considered to be Philadelphia’s WR1B option alongside AJ Brown (WR1A).
For the second straight week, Smith will be thrust into the role as the clear WR1, with Brown expected to miss the contest against New Orleans due to a hamstring injury.
Last week, Smith recorded seven catches for 76 yards on 10 targets as the top option. In Week 1, alongside Brown, Smith made seven receptions for 84 yards on eight targets.
In Week 2, New Orleans gave up 90 yards to CeeDee Lamb. I’m not even going to mention how it performed in Week 1 against an extremely dysfunctional Panthers team that has been by far the worst in the league.
According to Derek Brown of FantasyPros, Smith will be primarily covered by slot corner Alontae Taylor.
Quarterbacks facing Taylor have recorded an impressive 99.3 quarterback rating since the start of the 2023 campaign.
Dating back to last year’s regular season, Smith has recorded 50 or more receiving yards in nine of his past 10 (90%) outings.
The Eagles are 2.5-point underdogs against the Saints, which means it is likely Jalen Hurts will target Smith often.
FanDuel’s alternate line of 50+ receiving yards is a great price at -330 compared to other sportsbooks such as DraftKings (-380,79.17% implied odds) and Caesars (-450, 81.82% implied odds).
Devonta Smith’s Week 3 projections:
- Action Network: 73 yards
- FantasyPros: 79.4 yards
- Numberfire: 78.8 yards
- ESPN: 78 yards
- Yahoo: 78 yards
- BettingPros: 73.2 yards
If you’re looking for the weekly odds or more picks, check out our dedicated articles here:
How To Bet NFL Parlays
A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.
Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.
You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.
Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.
How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.
The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.
It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.
Sportbook Promos
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