NFL Player Prop Bets Week 3 2024

The second week on the NFL’s schedule featured many ups and downs, including plenty of nail-biters.

Aaron Rodgers earned his first win of the NFL season as the New York Jets defeated the Tennessee Titans 24-17.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs beat their AFC rivals, the Cincinnati Bengals, 26-25 after Harrison Butker kicked a game-winning 51-yard field goal as time expired. A pass interference on 4th and 16 put them in range.

The game week ended on Monday with Kirk Cousins and the Falcons orchestrating a clutch final drive against the Eagles by finding Drake London for a 5-yard touchdown with 34 seconds remaining for the winning score (22-21).

A number of surprising 0-2 starts for the Ravens, Bengals, and Jaguars means it’s time for them to dig deep in Week 3.

We’ll provide two player props in this article for Denver quarterback Bo Nix and Buffalo tight end Dalton Kincaid.

Week 3 Player Props

The featured tips are for pass attempts and receptions. The odds were correct at the time of writing.

Bo Nix over 29.5 pass attempts (-120 at Bet365)

Denver is one of the 0-2 teams desperate to come out for a win on Sunday. There aren’t high expectations for the Broncos since they’re in a rebuilding stage and have a rookie, Bo Nix, starting at quarterback.

Through two weeks, the former Oregon Duck hasn’t looked too bad and has kept both games within one score. He does look like a rookie, though.

It’s yet to be seen how his season will progress, but since the Broncos drafted him with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 draft, he’ll have a long leash and at least probably another year to showcase improvements.

Through two weeks, head coach Sean Payton has let his rookie air it out, and Nix has soared over his passing attempt totals with 42 attempts in Week 1 (26-20 loss to Seattle) followed by 35 in Week 2’s (13-6) loss to Pittsburgh.

The Broncos will travel to face the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay this Sunday. Denver is a 6.5-point underdog, which will likely lead to a game script forcing Nix to once again record 30 or more pass attempts.

Tampa Bay (2-0) has played superbly after beating Washington (1-1) 37-20 in Week 1 and Detroit (1-1) 20-16 last week.

Traveling to Ford Field and winning is no easy feat, especially against a Lions team that went 12-5 in 2023 and reached the NFC Championship.

What also makes this bet stand out is that according to TeamRankings.com, last year, Tampa Bay allowed an average of 36.3 pass attempts per game to opposing quarterbacks.

This year, the defensive unit has surrendered an average of 33.5 with Jared Goff attempting 43 last week.

The Bucs also have injuries to its secondary including Pro Bowl safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (likely out), which Denver head coach Sean Payton will attempt to expose.

Denver has also been putrid in the run game. The team’s starting running back Javonte Williams, is only averaging 1.9 yards per carry.

Second, on its depth chart, Jaleel McLaughlin is averaging 2.5 which also puts more weight on Nix’s shoulders to attempt more passes.

The -120 odds at FanDuel for Nix to eclipse 29.5 passing yards holds value thanks to just about every other book listing his total at 30.5.

Bet365 lists his odds at -125 for 30+ pass attempts and ESPNBet has the same total at -110 for the over.

Utilizing betting and fantasy analytical models is also important when predicting player props. Here are some of the most renowned model projections for Nix this Sunday.

Model projections for Nix’s pass attempts at Tampa Bay

• ESPN: 35
• Action Network: 32.5
• FantasyPros: 32
• BettingPros: 32
• Numberfire: 30.78
• Covers: 30.6

Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (-135 at DraftKings)

Dalton Kincaid has endured an extremely slow start to the season with the Buffalo Bills. Last season, the tight end went over this line in 12/16 (75%) of games.

During Week 1, Kincaid was a surprising non-factor as the Bills defeated the Cardinals 34-28.

In Week 2, he was much more heavily involved in the game plan and was targeted often, but only early in the contest before the Bills blew out the Dolphins 31-10.

This led to a more run-heavy game script but Kincaid still recorded four receptions on four targets.

Buffalo (2-0) will host Jacksonville (0-2) as 4.5-point favorites this week. The game will likely stay close since the Jaguars will be “clawing” in order to not fall into the 0-3 gauntlet.

Over the course of his last 10 games, Kincaid has beaten the 3.5-reception mark 70% of the time. In 2023, the Jaguars allowed an average of 4.35 receptions to opposing tight ends.

During the 2023 campaign, the Utah product averaged 4.56 receptions per game and 5.68 targets per contest. Kincaid actually caught five or more passes in 9-of-16 outings.

Jacksonville is also giving up the third-most passing yards per game (245.5), so Buffalo should allow Josh Allen to attempt many passes this week to exploit the weakness.

Through two weeks, the Jags have also surrendered an average of 35.5 pass attempts against opposing quarterbacks.

According to FantasyPros’ expert Derek Brown, Kincaid had a 70% route share, 50% first-read share and a 21.1% target share against the Dolphins.

Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman, who many thought would be the Bills WR1 after the departure of Stefon Diggs, has failed to create separation against cornerbacks and only had one target last week and six for the entire season.

This also helps Kincaid’s case to record more than 3.5 receptions.

The best price available is currently on DraftKings at -135 compared to other books such as BetRivers (-139) and FanDuel (-138). Since the game is on Monday, other bookmakers will make the reception prop available closer to game time.

Model projections for Kincaid’s receptions vs. Jacksonville

• Numberfire: 4.8
• BettingPros: 4.7
• FantasyPros: 4.6
• ESPN: 4
• Action Network: 3.8
• Covers: 3.8

If you’re looking for Week 3 odds or parlay picks, check out our latest articles:

• Week 3 Odds
• Week 3 Parlays