NBA Best Player Prop Bets Today – February 21, 2025

The All-Star break marks an inflection point in the NBA season.

It allows players to reset, gives coaches and fans a breather, and provides an opportunity for everyone to catch up on movies and TV shows.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming. Let’s recap the first half of the season to remind everyone where we stand.

The Cavaliers and Thunder lead their respective conferences, with Boston and Denver trailing by a significant margin.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the clear favorite to win MVP at -500, while all other player awards remain up for grabs.

The first half featured major moments such as the Luka Doncic trade and Kevin Durant reaching the 30,000-point milestone.

Now that we’re back, let’s focus and identify some promising bets for tonight.

Jordan Poole Over 4.5 Assists (-128) at FanDuel

Jordan Poole is one of the league’s most polarizing players.

He played a pivotal role in the Warriors’ 2022 Championship run but then faced a tumultuous period that included getting punched by Draymond Green and being traded to Washington.

Since then, he has largely fallen out of the public eye.

However, this season, Poole has bounced back and emerged as Washington’s best player (though that might not say much for the league’s worst team).

His game has reached another level in the five games since Kyle Kuzma was traded. In the month leading up to the trade, Poole averaged 4.5 assists in 29.8 minutes per game.

Since Kuzma’s departure, he has stepped up to average 5.6 assists in 34.2 minutes per game.

The exit of Kuzma has resulted in more touches and assist opportunities for Poole. He is now the lead player on this team and should see the ball in his hands even more than before.

The Wizards brought in Khris Middleton through the Kuzma trade, but at this point in his career, Middleton is better suited as a sidekick rather than a leading player on any team.

I like Poole to find his teammates as the Wizards face a much better and tougher Bucks team.

Odds Comparison for Jordan Poole Over Assists

Sportsbook	Odds
FanDuel	-128
DraftKings	-140
Caesars	-154
bet365	-160
BetMGM	-160
Hard Rock Bet	-170

Evan Mobley Over 16.5 Points (-120) at bet365 & Hard Rock Bet

Mobley is midway through his best season to date. He was named an All-Star, is the co-leader for Defensive Player of the Year, and is averaging a career-best 18.5 points per game.

He has been even better in February, averaging 20.6 points per game and surpassing the 17-point mark in six of nine games.

Mobley’s uptick in scoring can be attributed to a number of factors.

His three-point percentage is at a career-high 37.4%, while he is taking more threes than ever before (2.8 this season compared to a career-high 1.2 last season).

He is also getting to the free-throw line more, averaging 4.2 attempts per game compared to a career average of 3.5.

It’s clear his offensive game is coming into form, and now he faces a unique challenge against the Knicks.

His primary defenders should be a combination of Precious Achiuwa and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Mobley has a major advantage in size against Achiuwa; Mobley stands at 6’11”, while Achiuwa, who is no slouch himself, is giving up 3 inches at 6’8”.

With this size difference, Mobley should be able to find his shot tonight.

The Cavs come in well-rested for a team on the second half of a back-to-back; Mobley played just 30 minutes last night, while his counterparts Achiuwa and Towns played 46 and 43 minutes, respectively.

Look for the Cavs to work through Mobley in his matchups against Achiuwa, one of the weaker defenders on this Knicks team.

Odds Comparison for Evan Mobley’s Over Points

Sportsbook	Odds
bet365	-120
Hard Rock Bet	-120
Caesars	-129
BetMGM	-145
DraftKings	-110 (for 17.5)
FanDuel	-115 (for 17.5)

Jabari Smith Jr. Under 5.5 Rebounds (-135) at DraftKings

I love betting unders on players returning from injury.

There are so many factors that can help keep the line under, such as discomfort, minute restrictions, and fatigue. Smith Jr. has missed the last 22 games with a hand injury, and he is finally good to go.

In his absence, the Rockets have gotten more out of young players like Tari Eason and Cam Whitmore.

With Smith Jr. back in the fold, I still expect these two to receive more minutes than they did prior to his injury.

The Rockets are currently 4th in the West at 34-21; given how surprising this is, they are not in any rush to disrupt the chemistry of their young squad.

Smith Jr. is averaging 6.5 rebounds per game this season, but that is based on 30.9 minutes per game.

I expect his minute restriction to hover around the 18-24 minute mark, depending on game flow and his energy levels.

DraftKings has the best line on the board, so get in while you can before it drops to 4.5.

Odds Comparison for Jabari Smith Jr. Under Rebounds

Sportsbook	Odds
DraftKings	-135
FanDuel	-162
bet365	+115 (for 4.5)
Caesars	+120 (for 4.5)
BetMGM	+120 (for 4.5)
Hard Rock Bet	+125 (for 4.5)

Jamie’s record this season: 3-3