Lawrence Smelser
Updated: Nov 18, 2024
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Week 10 is off to an entertaining start after the Ravens defeated the Bengals 35-34 on Thursday Night Football.
Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow went back and forth throughout the shootout. Cincinnati ultimately attempted a two-point conversion late in the fourth quarter to escape M&T Bank Stadium with a win but failed.
It was an incredible evening on the stats sheet for Bengals’ receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who finished with a hat trick of touchdowns and 264 receiving yards.
Week 10 action will continue on Sunday in London as the Giants face the Panthers before the regular slate of games begins.
We’ve provided an alternate yards parlay containing one Giants’ running back and a Rams’ receiver below.
Remember to wager in a responsible manner and carefully keep an eye on your bankroll.
Also, we recommend to read our weekly NFL odds and prop picks in our dedicated articles.
Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.
Week 10 Alternate Receiving Yards Parlay
Tracy 50+ yds and Nacua 50+ yds (-123 at FanDuel)
Tyrone Tracy’s Outlook vs. CAR (50+ yds)
While losing Saquon Barkley in the offseason obviously hurt the Giants, they can find some consolation knowing they’ve found a talented starting running back in rookie Tyrone Tracy.
The fifth-round pick earned the starting role entering Week 5 after Devin Singletary went down with an injury. Tracy hasn’t looked back and firmly grasps the RB1 spot.
Tracy has averaged 82.6 rushing yards per game since becoming the starter and has recorded 50 or more yards in four of five (80%) contests during that span.
In those five starts, he recorded rushing yard totals of 129, 50, 23, 145 and 66.
He only recorded 23 yards in Week 7 against the Eagles due to a negative game script. Philadelphia ran away with the contest 28-3, forcing the Giants to come from behind and frequently pass.
New York has handed Tracy the reigns to the run game thanks to its passing game struggles with Daniel Jones.
Wide receiver Malik Nabers and Tracy are the two skill players who move the offense down the field.
Tracy is averaging an impressive 5.0 yards per carry this season. Only nine running backs average more.
Excluding the blowout loss against Philadelphia, Tracy has averaged 17.75 carries as a starter, which provides him plenty of opportunities to hit the required 50 yards in this leg of the parlay.
He faces a mouthwatering matchup this week against a Panthers defense that ranks dead-last in the NFL against the run (surrendering 159.3 rush yards per game).
Throughout the first nine weeks of the campaign, the Panthers have allowed 10 running backs to record 50 or more yards against them.
Last week, the Saints’ Alvin Kamara gashed their defense for 155 rushing yards and averaged 5.34 yards per attempt.
New York is a 6.5-point favorite this week against Carolina. If the oddsmakers’ predictions hold true, it promotes a positive and run-heavy game script for Tracy.
Tracy’s standard rushing total ranges between 74.5 and 75.5 yards at most sportsbooks.
This leg of the parlay (Tracy 50+ rush yards) is -330 at FanDuel. It is much more juiced at other books such as DraftKings (-400) and Caesars (-700).
Many of the top betting and fantasy football models also predict Tracy to enjoy a nice day on the ground against Carolina.
Model Projections for Tracy’s Rush Yards
- Numberfire: 77.7
- ESPN: 77.1
- 4for4: 75.8
- FantasyPros: 73.9
- BettingPros: 69.7
- Covers: 66.7
- RotoWire: 65.7
- Action Network: 64
Puka Nacua’s Outlook vs. MIA (50+ yds)
NFL fans haven’t seen much of the electric Puka Nacua after breaking the rookie record for most receiving yards in a season (1,486) in 2023/2024.
A PCL sprain has caused him to miss most of this season. Nacua returned in Week 8 against the Vikings and ended the night with seven receptions for 106 yards on nine targets.
Last week, he was targeted four times during the first half before being ejected late in the second quarter against the Seahawks.
Nacua averaged 87.41 yards per game in 2023 and recorded 50 or more yards in 12-of-17 (70.58%) contests.
This week, he’ll face a Dolphins’ secondary that appears deceptively good on paper.
They’ve allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game, but this is due to facing teams emphasizing the run due to positive game scripts (Miami struggled mightily without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa).
The quarterbacks they’ve faced have also been mediocre, such as Jacoby Brissett, Anthony Richardson and Mason Rudolph.
Miami’s past two opponents, Arizona and Buffalo, have scored 28 and 30 points in the matchups. Kyler Murray threw for 307 yards, and Josh Allen recorded 235 yards passing.
The points total for Los Angeles vs. Miami is 50.5, the highest of the week across bookmakers. The Rams are only a one-point favorite on the spread.
This implies there should be plenty of offense with the chains being moved for most of the night.
These factors help build a case for Nacua to enjoy a good day through the air. What also bodes well for him is Cooper Kupp being healthy, which will prevent Miami from double-teaming the former BYU star (Nacua).
This leg of the parlay (Nacua 50+ receiving yards) is -255 on FanDuel compared to -310 (DraftKings) and -370 (Caesars).
His standard receiving yards total for this matchup is set between 68.5 and 72.5, depending on the operator.
Model Projections for Nacua’s Receiving Yards
- RotoWire: 77.3
- Numberfire: 77.2
- FantasyPros: 77.1
- ESPN: 75.5
- Action Network: 72
- BettingPros: 71.8
- 4for4: 71.4
- Covers: 69.6
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