NFL Player Prop Bets Week 10

Week 9 of the NFL season ended with a thriller on Monday night as the Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers 30-24 in overtime.

Week 10 opens with an AFC North rivalry between the Bengals and Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Thursday night. The last time these two played each other a month ago, Cincinnati won in a shootout 41-38.

We’ve provided one player prop below for tonight’s contest and another for Sunday night’s matchup between the Lions and Texans.

Remember to bet responsibly and keep a careful eye on your bankroll.

In addition, have a read of our week 10 NFL odds and parlay picks.

Week 10 Player Props

The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing. They were also shopped across all legal U.S. sportsbooks.

Charlie Kolar under 1.5 recs at BUF (-106 at FanDuel)

The Ravens’ third-string tight end usually wouldn’t be listed at any sportsbook since he rarely sees the field.

This week, Kolar is listed thanks to second-string tight end Isaiah Likely being ruled out for the contest. This moves Kolar into the backup role behind starter Mark Andrews.

This line holds a ton of value because Kolar is primarily a blocking tight end.

The 25-year-old has run only 22 routes in nine games this season. According to RotoWire, he’s only run a route on 14% of snaps.

Last week against Denver, Kolar actually outsnapped Likely 21-17, yet only ran one route and recorded zero targets.

So far this campaign, Kolar has gone under the 1.5-reception mark in eight of nine games (88.88%). He ended with zero catches and zero targets in three of those contests.

Throughout the nine-game span, he’s only been targeted two or more times on just two occasions.

Even with Likely out this week, Kolar will probably stick to his usual role of primarily blocking.

What also makes it improbable that he will eclipse 1.5 catches is the team incorporating new wide receiver Diontae Johnson into the game plan, who was acquired just before Week 9.

He played sparingly last week but is expected to see more action tonight since there’s been more time to study the playbook.

The former 2021 Pro Bowler, Johnson, will certainly command targets.

Baltimore now has a ton of talented mouths to feed, including their superstar running back Derrick Henry, former first-round receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, and Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews.

Baltimore’s offense has moved primarily on the ground, with Henry averaging 18.66 carries per game and Jackson averaging 9.33 rush attempts per contest.

If you combine those stats with Jackson averaging 19.3 completions per game, it’s hard to imagine Kolar will receive two passes.

Anything can happen, though, and no wager is guaranteed. Kolar saw three catches on four targets in Week 5 against the Bengals.

Kolar has recorded a total of seven catches in nine contests (0.77 catches per game) and eight targets (0.88 per game).

As of Thursday morning, FanDuel was the only sportsbook offering this prop at -106. Many bookmakers usually don’t feature lines for backup tight ends. 

Many of the top fantasy football and NFL betting projection models also predict he will record under 1.5 receptions.

Model Projections for Kolar’s recs vs. CIN

• ESPN: 0.5
• 4for4.com: 0.8
• Action Network: 0.8
• FantasyPros: 1.1
• BettingPros: 1.1
• RotoWire: 1.3
• Numberfire: 1.6

David Montgomery Anytime TD at HOU (-125 at bet365)

The Lions running back has been a touchdown machine since the start of last season. During the 23/24 campaign, Montgomery scored 13 touchdowns in 14 games (an average of .928 per game).

He ultimately found the end zone in 10/13 contests since there were a few where he recorded multiple scores.

He was injured early in one of those and only recorded six carries, so the number is realistically closer to 10/12 contests (83.3%).

This season, he started hot, scoring a touchdown during Detroit’s first five games. He’s recorded eight touchdowns in nine games but hasn’t found the end zone in two of his past three games.

That scenario presents an opportunity to jump on him at -125 odds compared to previous weeks, where his lines were much more juiced around -160 to -170, depending on the bookmaker.

The Iowa State product has found the end zone in 77.7% (7/9) of contests so far this campaign.

Montgomery ranks sixth in the NFL for the most carries in the red zone (28), which gives him an average of 3.11 per game.

The Lions are 3.5-point favorites this week against the Texans, who could be without their top receiver, Nico Collins (on IR with a hamstring). They’re already missing Stefon Diggs (out for the season).

If Detroit (7-1) continues its dominant nature of routing teams and doesn’t fall behind, it promotes a running game script and gives Montgomery even more opportunities to score.

Model Projections for Montgomery’s Rushing TDs at HOU

• Action Network: 0.71
• BettingPros: 0.71
• ESPN: 0.7
• RotoWire: 0.7
• FantasyPros: 0.7
• Numberfire: 0.65