NFL Week 12 Parlay

It’s Week 12, and every team is in action this week!

Three games on Thanksgiving Day, one on Black Friday, eleven games on Sunday, and of course, Monday Night Football.

With all of these options, there are plenty of legs available to construct a solid parlay!

In this week of giving thanks across America, I must give thanks to the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns continue covering the spread at a solid rate and they have kept my betting bankroll in a satisfactory place.

Thank you, Cleveland Browns!

As for the Week 12 parlay, the blueprint remains the same: one underdog moneyline, two spreads, one over, and one under.

This week’s parlay will be placed on DraftKings.

Moneyline – Cleveland Browns (+114) vs. Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos have won four straight games and they have climbed all the way back to .500 after starting the season 1-5.

This slowly growing feel-good story in Denver feels like a fluke to me.

Especially considering that three of those four wins were by a combined five points.

BestOdds EDGE also believes the Cleveland Browns have a strong chance of winning, giving Cleveland an 84% chance of taking this game in Denver.

Also, the Browns are 7-3 against the spread this season, and with a narrow spread of just 2.5-points favoring the Broncos, this game can flip in the hands of the defense-first Browns.

Russell Wilson and this Denver offense does not regularly gain many yards, averaging just 301.2 total yards of offense per game (23rd in NFL).

Cleveland’s defense also does not allow many yards, surrendering an average of only 243.3 total yards of offense per game (1st in NFL).

The Browns’ defense is going to put the Broncos’ offense on blocks in Week 12.

Pick: Browns Moneyline (+114)

Spread – Pittsburgh Steelers (-1 | -112) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been an offensive disappointment this season, so asking them to cover a spread can be frustrating, but they are still 6-4 ATS.

The Steelers just fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the first on-field coach to be fired midseason by Pittsburgh since 1941.

Pittsburgh’s offense is 28th in offensive points per game and 28th in total yards of offense.

Hopefully for the Steelers, Canada’s exit was an addition by subtraction.

The more notable absence from this game will be that of Cincinnati Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow.

Burrow is out for the season with a wrist injury, and the Bengals’ new QB moving forward will be Jake Browning.

Browning did okay after Burrow’s departure in Week 11, completing eight passes for 68 yards and a touchdown, but he took over late in the second quarter.

Browning entered the game when it was only a four-point lead for the Ravens, with a whole other half to go, and still only produced such a small workload. He didn’t turn the ball over though, and that’s the silver lining to his day.

LAMAR JACKSON FUMBLE, TJ WATT RECOVERS 🤯

STEELERS WIN.
pic.twitter.com/7tgIbUDiS1

— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) October 8, 2023

I don’t like Browning’s chances of having a turnover-free game against the Steelers’ defense this week, as Pittsburgh has the NFL’s best turnover differential at +11 and they’re tied for second in total takeaways with 19.

Pittsburgh’s defense will lead to offense, based on positive field position on turnovers.

Pick: Steelers (-1)

Spread – San Francisco 49ers (-6.5 | -112) vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks had a rough Week 11, losing to the Los Angeles Rams by just one point, simultaneously losing quarterback Geno Smith and running back Kenneth Walker.

If the Seahawks enter Week 12 against the San Francisco 49ers without Smith and Walker, I don’t like their chances.

This game being played on Thursday makes for a quick turnaround for Pete Carroll’s bruised-up offense.

Even with a fully healthy team, I still believe the 49ers can win this game by a touchdown or more, so with a spread of only 6.5 points, I feel comfortable backing the Niners here.

San Francisco’s defense has allowed an average of only 15.7 points per game, which is first in the NFL.

The #49ers Defensive Rankings thru week 11 of the #NFL

♦️5th Total Defense 302.8 YPG
♦️15th Passing 221.4 YPG
♦️3rd Rushing 81.4 YPG
♦️1st Points Per Game 15.7
♦️1st Interceptions (14)
‼️Four Way Tie for Second in Takeaways (19) 49ers, Bills, Broncos, Steelers pic.twitter.com/Xtbvev5JgR

— WayneBreezie (@thewaynebreezie) November 21, 2023

If Drew Locke is starting under center for Seattle, I don’t see many points being scored by the Seahawks. Seattle kicker Jason Myers may be the only man to score a point for the Seahawks on Thanksgiving.

Drew Locke makes the 49ers a Locke.

Hopefully, the result of this spread is better than that pun.

Pick: 49ers (-6.5)

Over – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts (o43.5 | -108)

Fun Fact: the over has gone 4-1 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis this season, with an average total being a whopping 56.8 points.

This week’s matchup between the Bucs and the Colts has the potential to approach a total in the 50s.

In their last contest, Indianapolis only scored 10 points against the New England Patriots.

But, that game was played in Frankfurt, Germany and all of the International games this season went under the total.

Now, back at home, the Colts can get back to their scoring ways. Indy scored at least 20 points in every game prior to their German showdown with the Patriots.

And, in the three weeks before they packed their bags for Europe, the Colts’ offense was averaging 30.7 points per game.

Gardner Minshew connects with Drew Ogletree for a 33-yard touchdown for the #Coltspic.twitter.com/XnCwfWYLQ6

— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 29, 2023

Indianapolis could have an easier time scoring against Tampa Bay’s defense this week too, as the Bucs have a litany of defensive players being designated as ‘questionable’, including linebacker Lavonte David, defensive back Jamel Dean, safety Ryan Neal, and cornerback Carlton Davis.

The Buccaneers should have little issue scoring regardless of who Indy sends out on defense.

The Colts’ defense is 20th in passing defense (249.6 passing yards/game), 25th in rushing defense (129.7 rushing yards/game), and 26th in scoring defense (24.8 points allowed/game).

With Tampa Bay having the NFL’s 31st-ranked passing defense, this game has the makings of a Baker Mayfield vs. Gardner Minshew shootout.

I’ll say the final score will be 31-28, Buccaneers.

Pick: Over 43.5

Under – New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (u42 | -108)

The under in New Orleans Saints’ games continues to cash out at a pretty good clip, as the under has occurred in seven of 10 games this season.

The low-scoring Atlanta Falcons, averaging only 18.9 points per game, also have a solid record on the under, with six games out of 10 going under the total.

With Saints’ quarterback Derek Carr and Falcons’ quarterback Taylor Heinicke both being listed as ‘questionable’, there is a cloud of confusion hanging over these offenses heading into Week 12.

I stand by this trend from BestOdds EDGE.

Here’s a look at all three of Atlanta’s games as underdogs this season and the result of the total:

Opponent	ATL Spread	Consensus Total	Total Result
Week 3: Detroit	+3.5	46.5	26 Total Points
Week 4: Jacksonville	+3.5	42.5	30 Total Points
Week 7: Tampa Bay	+3	37.5	29 Total Points

The Falcons have been set as underdogs only three times, but in each game, they’ve focused heavily on defense.

This could be another walk-off kick for Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo.

I’ll say the final score will be 17-14, Falcons.

Pick: Under 42

NFL Week 12 Parlay Legs – DraftKings	Odds
Cleveland (ML) vs. Denver	+114
Pittsburgh (-1) vs. Cincinnati	-112
San Francisco (-6.5) vs. Seattle	-112
OVER 43.5 (TB vs. IND)	-108
UNDER 42 (NO vs. ATL)	-108
Parlay Odds	+2743

A $10 wager on this Week 11 Parlay would pay out $284.39!

How To Bet NFL Parlays

A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.

Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.

You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.

Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.

How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.

The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.

It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.

If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL Week 12 Odds analysis worth checking out.