NFL Player Prop Bets Week 12

The NFL season is nearly two-thirds over, with Week 12 on the horizon.

With every team having played at least 10 games, more data is available for researching bets.

We’ve done it for you in this article, which provides two player prop picks for Arizona running back James Conner (at Seattle) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (at Indianapolis).

Remember to bet responsibly and keep a careful eye on your bankroll.

Read our Week 12 NFL odds and parlay picks for more information on Sunday’s slate.

Week 12 Player Props

The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing. They were also shopped across all legal U.S. sportsbooks.

James Conner anytime TD (-120 at bet365)

Arizona’s bell cow faces a juicy matchup against Seattle in a contest with a total set at 47.5 points by most bookmakers.

Conner will see plenty of opportunities to find his way into the end zone if oddsmakers are accurate.

This season, Conner has scored five touchdowns in 10 contests (50%). However, this number probably should be higher, thanks to the many opportunities inside the red zone he’s receiving.

Red Zone Rush % Leaders

Rank	Player (Team)	RZ Rush %	Rush TDs
1	James Conner	92.3%	5
2	Kyren Williams	89.6%	8
3	Chubba Hubbard	86.7%	5
4	Derrick Henry	86.0%	11
5	Joe Mixon	84.6%	9

As showcased above, the former Pitt Panther leads the entire NFL in red zone rushing percentage.

Conner also has 36 red zone rush attempts, which ranks fourth in the league, and is an average of 3.6 per game.

He’ll face a Seattle defense that has surrendered eight rushing touchdowns in 10 games (0.8 per game).

The Seahawks have struggled mightily against the run this season, making it possible for Conner to break loose to score.

The unit ranks fifth-worst in the league, surrendering 4.8 yards per carry and sixth-worst in opposing rush yards per game (138.6).

The outing is expected to be extremely close, with Caesars listing it as a PK (pick ‘em) on the spread and other books giving Seattle a half-point advantage.

This bodes well from a game-script perspective for Conner to receive his usual heavy workload.

He’s averaging 18.3 touches per game (15.9 carries and 2.4 receptions) and is touching the ball on 49.7% of snaps.

The 29-year-old is also coming off the bye week, so he should be well-rested.

The -120 odds for Conner to break the plane on Sunday are much better than the other operators featured below.

Odds Comparison for Conner Anytime TD

Sportsbook	Odds
bet365	-120
ESPN BET	-130
DraftKings	-135
Caesars	-165

Note: FanDuel, BetMGM and BetRivers weren’t displaying odds at the time of writing.

Top projection models in the fantasy football and betting industry also give Conner a high chance of scoring against the Seahawks.

Model Projections for Conner Anytime TD

• Numberfire: 0.85
• Action Network: 0.79
• FantasyPros: 0.70
• BettingPros: 0.71
• ESPN: 0.70
• RotoWire: 0.50

Amon-Ra St. Brown under 7.5 recs (-145 at ESPN BET)

This line is a little steep at -145, but it’s priced better compared to other bookmakers such as Caesars (-167) and bet365 (-150).

Other major sportsbooks have yet to release the odds (as of Thursday morning).

Last week against the Jaguars, St. Brown exploded for 11 catches on 11 targets with 161 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This is likely why his total is up to 7.5 receptions rather than 6.5.

Through 10 games, the USC product has gone under the 7.5-catch mark seven times (70%). He’s averaging 6.5 receptions and 7.8 targets per game.

This week, the 25-year-old appears to have a terrific matchup, and he does in most major categories aside from receptions.

The Colts’ secondary has done a fantastic job limiting opponents’ wideouts from collecting a high volume of catches.

After 11 games, they have only allowed one receiver to record more than 7.5 catches (Chicago’s D.J. Moore in Week 3 had eight receptions).

The second-highest recorded receptions (seven) were by Justin Jefferson and George Pickens. Every other receiver has tallied six or fewer.

According to Covers.com, Indy’s cornerbacks are graded as the third-best in the NFL in relation to defending opposing weapons.

The site also notes that Detroit has called the eighth-fewest number of plays (55.9) this year, which potentially forecasts St. Brown to go under the mark.

The Lions as a team are averaging 28.2 pass attempts per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL.

Their quarterback, Jared Goff, is averaging just 27, which would put him at the second-fewest compared to actual franchises.

The “Motor City” is 9-1 this season, and in the nine wins, Goff has averaged just 21.5 pass attempts, which also helps the case for St. Brown to record under 7.5 catches.

Detroit is favored by 7.5 points, so if the game ends up being a blowout or close to the predicted spread, a run-heavy game script will certainly be on the cards for Dan Campbell’s team.

Model Projections for St. Brown’s Receptions

• Action Network: 6.2
• RotoWire: 6.38
• Numberfire: 6.65
• ESPN: 6.8
• BettingPros: 7.0
• FantasyPros: 7.0