Is Dak Prescott the Worst Playoff QB Ever?
Dak Prescott showed how life turns on a dime in the NFL. A week ago, he was being lauded as an MVP-caliber quarterback worthy of a new position-setting contract as the game’s highest-paid player.
Today, he’s widely viewed as a game manager who can’t get his team over the hump in the postseason.
The latest January mishap was Dallas’s worst ever, occurring as a 7.5-point favorite against an inexperienced Green Bay team that recently turned bottom-dwelling QBs Tommy DeVito and Bryce Young into NFC Players of the Week.
That loss dropped his career postseason record to 2-5.
Is Prescott the most disappointing postseason quarterback in modern history, and thus unlikely to ever win a championship?
Or are we unfairly hanging team-wide failures around his neck?
Or is it a little of both?
Let’s look at Prescott’s regular-season performance, just by win percentage (yes QB wins is a legit stat), and compare that to his most similar players since 1990.
Prescott is one of just nine QBs in the period with at least 100 regular-season starts through age 30 and a win percentage of at least .600.
Here’s the list, along with their postseason record:
| Player | GS | W | L | Pct. | PS W | PS L |
| Tom Brady | 110 | 86 | 24 | 0.782 | 14 | 3 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 126 | 87 | 39 | 0.690 | 10 | 4 |
| Troy Aikman | 102 | 70 | 32 | 0.686 | 11 | 3 |
| Russell Wilson | 112 | 75 | 36 | 0.670 | 8 | 5 |
| Brett Favre | 125 | 82 | 43 | 0.656 | 9 | 5 |
| Dak Prescott | 114 | 73 | 41 | 0.640 | 2 | 5 |
| Peyton Manning | 144 | 92 | 52 | 0.639 | 7 | 6 |
| Steve McNair | 109 | 69 | 40 | 0.633 | 5 | 4 |
| Joe Flacco | 122 | 75 | 47 | 0.615 | 10 | 5 |
Prescott Should Have 5-to-7 More Postseason Wins
Seven of the eight QBs won a Super Bowl in the period that’s sampled, again only through age 30 (Prescott’s official age for the 2023 season).
Excluding Prescott, the sample here is 74-35 in the postseason, a win rate of .676 that’s indistinguishable from their collective regular-season win rate (.671).
If Prescott performed in the Postseason at an average level, his record should be 9-4 with a Super Bowl appearance at a minimum and probably a win.
If we just compare him to the most similar regular-season QBs in win percentage, he should be 7-5. So Prescott’s either seven wins light or five.
Either way, terrible underachievement.
But is it even his fault? Consider how Dallas’ supposedly vaunted defense performed on Sunday.
That was par for the course for Prescott in his postseason era to date.
So opponents have killed the Dallas defense and Prescott has faced MVP-level QB-performance in the postseason. I
n other words, Prescott isn’t responsible for these losses.
But hasn’t Prescott been touted as an MVP-level QB since his rookie year?
Even if he’s playing peer-group MVPs, shouldn’t he be more like 3-4 or even 4-3 in these seven games (and thus earning more games and more chances for wins)?
There’s a case to be made that it’s Prescott who has let his defense down and made it easier for the opposing QBs to play in hitter’s counts.
That was especially true on Sunday when Prescott had zero yards passing in the first quarter and then threw two interceptions that led to 14 points (including a pick six).
This version of the Dallas defense is built to play from ahead, not behind.
First Quarter Woes Have Crippled Cowboys
Let’s look at all qualifying postseason QBs since quarter stats were tracked officially in 1991 and see where Prescott ranks in his performance in the first quarter of postseason games.
His passer rating is 69.1 – 36th of 48 qualifiers. His 55.8% completion percentage is 38th.
He’s not making explosive plays early in games, averaging a paltry 5.86 yards per attempt in the first quarter (43rd) and his 30.2% passing success rate is 38th.
He picks it up typically for the remainder of games but his overall postseason YPA is only 6.5 (still bad) and his passer rating is a decent 92.
We now have to wonder if the Super Bowl window for Prescott’s Cowboys even remains open at all. There’s no doubt it’s closing, mostly due to his salary cap number.
According to Yahoo, “Prescott has a budget-crippling 59-plus million dollars coming his way in 2024 salary cap numbers, a no-trade clause in his deal, and language preventing the team from using the franchise tag on him again.
A reworking of his terms is almost certainly coming.”
That 2024 cap number is $33 million more than in 2023. And the Cowboys are $16 million over the cap as we speak.
The only way they can prevent an exit of players is by lowering Prescott’s cap number with another market-setting franchise deal.
But would you want to tie yourself to Prescott for another five to seven years?
Most Comparable Postseason QBs: Dalton, Ryan
After all, his most comparable QBs when it comes to underachieving in the postseason relative to regular-season wins are Matt Ryan (1-4 in the postseason through age 30) and Andy Dalton (0-4).
While he earned MVP consideration in 2023, his struggles against top teams are not limited to the playoffs.
With Mike McCarthy as his head coach, Prescott is 13-15 against teams that finished the season with a winning record. This year, he was 4-5.
Are his critics right?
Cam Newton drew heat when he opined that Prescott was a game manager. “They’re not difference makers,” said Newton, the 2015 NFL MVP. “And when you say game manager, I’m not asking you to go out and win the game. I’m just asking you not to lose – not to lose the game.”
Despite ending up with over 400 passing yards on the stat sheet, it’s fair to say that Prescott did lose the game on Sunday due to the atrocious start and two interceptions including a Pick Six.
So Prescott being a playoff game manager would be an improvement.
About the author
Michael Salfino writes about sports and the sport industry. His numbers-driven analysis began with a nationally syndicated newspaper column in 2004. H...
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