Is The MVP Really A QB-Only Award?
The betting markets are convinced the MVP is the “QB of the Year Award.”
Brock Purdy is a prohibitive favorite despite the only other position that wins it, running back, featuring a player having a historic season on that same best team in football.
Yet Christian McCaffrey is being treated by oddsmakers like he doesn’t qualify for the award.
Is it possible we’re conflating modern RB usage with some foundational change in what being an MVP means to voters?
In other words, a single running back and dominant running game is generally not a primary feature of elite teams in the past quarter of a century.
So is it a fact that running backs aren’t considered for the award or the lack of modern backs with the statistical bonafide on a requisite dominant team that creates the mere illusion that RBs can’t win?
RBs Like McCaffrey On Dominant Teams Do Win
McCaffrey is averaging well over 5.0 per carry and already has 20 TDs and is on pace to smash 2000+ rushing yards.
He’d be the 10th back to pull this trifecta in NFL history.
And again, he’s on pace to smash these benchmarks.
Three of the prior nine have won MVP.
And all of these seasons have been in the past 25 years.
Only four more were on teams that won at least 10 games, six if we exclude Larry Johnson, who only started nine games in a season when another RB won the award.
So this model seemingly gives McCaffrey a 50% chance to win?
Furthermore, the only two RBs with comparable seasons on teams that won at least 12 games both won the award (LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and Terrell Davis in 1998).
Tomlinson and Davis both won the award in a romp, too. That’s 100% for the math challenge.
Additionally, Shaun Alexander (2005) and Adrian Peterson (2012) both won the award rather easily (Peterson in a wipeout).
Peterson had the magic number of 2,000 rushing yards and Alexander set the NFC single-season TD record that McCaffrey could break this year.
Both Alexander and Peterson were near zeros in the passing game, however, where McCaffrey can function as a third wideout.
But the point is that dominant backs do win, even in the last 25 years, and McCaffrey more than qualifies by their standards.
Is Purdy The Niners MVP?
Looking at this century, the MVP is less a QB of the Year Award, fine, and more a “QB Who Carries the Offense Award.” The Niners are a dominant running team.
Only four MVP QBs this century were on teams that were either top five in rushing yards or yards per rush (the Niners will easily finish top five in both of these categories).
Those QBs: Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Kurt Warner.
Jackson and Newton were primary runners. Matt Ryan’s Falcons (also coached by Shanahan) were exactly No. 5 in both categories but featured an RB committee.
But yes, indeed, this didn’t move voters away from Ryan, who was similarly dominant to Purdy.
However, Ryan didn’t have a back on that team to contend with for the award, either.
More succinctly and concerning given Purdy’s odds: No QB MVP Award winner since 2001 has had a running back who led the league in either TDs, rushing yards, or yards per carry.
McCaffrey leads the NFL in all of these categories.
Is Purdy Even The Engine Of The Niner’s Success?
Consider that the Niners are 21-2 in games Christian McCaffrey starts and finishes since they acquired him.
They were 3-4 in 2022 before he started his first game for San Francisco.
And in his first five starts, with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, the Niners were 5-0.
So is McCaffrey the MVP of the Niners? Here’s George Kittle on that: “I’m all for QB’s win the (MVP) award, it’s an important position…
You’ve gotta have Christian up there because he’s unguardable and the most unique position player in football.”
Kittle seems to be saying that McCaffrey is the Niners MVP.
How can you be the MVP of the league if you’re not the MVP of the team?
I can’t find any evidence that the Niners have a team MVP award, however, at least not one that they publicly announce.
That’s a plus for Purdy because if they announced McCaffrey as team MVP, I have a hard time believing writers would then vote for Purdy for the league award.
Finally, are we sure that there’s no narrative and writer sentiment for McCaffrey/an RB to be the MVP?
Every sportswriter in America seemed to be on a soapbox all summer preaching for the world to appreciate running backs more and to pay them more money.
It was here, there and everywhere.
Barrels of ink and billions of bytes are spent on how we need to value RBs more.
So these same writers won’t under any circumstances vote for a running back to win the MVP in a historic season?
Are we sure about that?
What better way to make this point than they were just hell-bent on making?
Now is McCaffrey likely to win the MVP, no. A QB probably will win and that QB will probably be Purdy.
But McCaffrey could win. It’s not a 7.7% chance, as his +1200 odds imply. It’s reasonably five or six times that.
About the author
Michael Salfino writes about sports and the sport industry. His numbers-driven analysis began with a nationally syndicated newspaper column in 2004. H...
[Read full bio]