NRFI Betting Strategies You Need To Know

The world is divided into two types of people:

There are those who enjoy the casual pace of a major league baseball game and there are those who would rather poke at their own eyes with a sharp object instead of sitting through yet another third inning pitching change. (I’m looking at you Kevin Cash)

That might explain why the No Run First Inning bet (also known as NRFI betting) has exploded in popularity as of late.

NRFI betting is simply deciding whether or not either team will score a first-inning run. This is a bet that has a maximum lifespan of six outs or less.

The perception by the betting masses was to assume that No Run is the more likely outcome.

But is that actually the case?

We can see from our graphic above that after 182 games played this season, Yes is actually cashing in at a slightly higher pace.

So how can we take advantage of this information?

Let’s see if our friend Data_Josh can help us out.

---

Let’s Go Shopping!

At BestOdds.com we do a lot of great things.

One of those things is our ability to track every single MLB game and whether or not the NRFI hit.

With this information at our fingertips, Data_Josh can now do his thing.

Our graphic above shows us what would happen if we had blindly bet No Runs for all 182 games using three popular sportsbooks.

Obviously, the math isn’t pretty and this is a strategy that we have no interest in playing, but the numbers can still teach us a lot.

What our graph above also does so well emphasizes the importance of shopping around.

We can see that just by choosing FanDuel for our NRFI bets instead of DraftKings, we saved ourselves $1000.

A thousand dollar swing over 182 bets is of great interest to me and I will boldly suggest it’s of interest to a lot of you as well.

For our next graph, we had Data_Josh average out the Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel odds and plot them as one line.

We then took the time to compare those odds against the Best Odds available for those games.

In this particular case, by shopping around for our Best Odds, we see a 42% difference in our favor.

Let me rephrase those savings in a different way.

If I told you the cost of a brand new Ford truck was $20,000 at one dealership and that the exact same truck was also for sale at a different dealership for $28,400, which one would you choose?

You don’t actually have to answer that, cause I think our point was made.

It’s also worth noting that Ford is not a sponsor of ours and I’m not actually sure if they sell a $20,000 truck, so don’t rush out to your local dealership based on my ramblings above.

---

Big Swats And Home Run Trots

Each week we try hard to discover a nugget or trend that might be worth tracking.

Sometimes we stumble across one, sometimes we don’t.

Our graphic above showed us a little something we are excited to keep our eye on as the season plays out.

Obviously, NRFI odds are impacted by starting pitchers, the teams involved and other factors deemed important by sportsbooks and bettors.

What the data is suggesting to date, is to throw all those factors out. Don’t spend time analyzing who is pitching and don’t sweat the teams involved.

If we simply threw down a one unit bet anytime there was NRFI plus money odds available, we would be up almost $300 year to date.

$300 won’t allow you to quit your day job, but it does allow you to take your significant other out for a fancy meal at Red Lobster and wow them with the Ultimate Endless Shrimp – Monday night special.

---

If you’re joining us Monday through Friday, you can find our NRFI picks today right here.

Otherwise, best of luck with all your upcoming picks and parlays this weekend and if you do end off at Red Lobster with an extra $300 in your pocket, I actually recommend the Steak and Lobster night (Wednesday), although endless shrimp works well too.

Subscribe to our newsletter and enjoy Malcolm Darnley’s cherry-picked betting insights and entertaining analysis.