Which QBs Can & Can’t Take A Punch?

One of the big things about assessing a team’s chances of winning a big game is whether they have two paths to victory – the knockout where they land blows early and coast or the comeback from being knocked down early.

This is a function of quarterback play.

Some put the opponent’s heart in their throat when the score forces them to play aggressively.

Others are viewed as Glass Joes who are dangerous when they are playing in hitter’s counts but who can be counted on to falter when the defense knows the pass is coming.

The best data we have to answer this question is “when trailing” splits. Of course, conference championship finalists are not going to have large samples of play when behind.

We stipulate that the best measure of greatness is passing your way to a lead and turning your opponent’s offense into a more predictable attack.

But the contrast between the MVP QBs who are batting in the AFC and the signal callers in the NFC is stark.

What it means is that the AFC game will likely feature teams that are resilient even if the game turns against them while the NFC game could be put to bed relatively early.

When Trailing Stats

Let’s look at just 2023 “when trailing” stats, sorted by passer rating but also including EPA per dropback if that’s the metric you prefer:

Rank	player	Team	Att	Comp%	Yd/Att	PsTD	Int	PsrRt	EPA/DB
1	Lamar Jackson	BAL	98	71.4%	8.5	7	1	116.4	0.35
2	C.J. Stroud	HOU	223	65.5%	8.6	13	0	112.0	0.22
3	Kirk Cousins	MIN	161	68.3%	7.5	12	2	109.8	0.14
4	Justin Herbert	LAC	199	67.8%	7.9	13	5	102.9	0.23
5	Baker Mayfield	TB	281	64.8%	7.8	17	6	99.9	0.13
6	Jalen Hurts	PHI	191	65.4%	7.7	10	3	99.6	0.20
7	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	235	68.5%	7.4	13	6	97.8	0.07
8	Russell Wilson	DEN	239	65.7%	7.2	14	6	95.8	0.00
9	Jake Browning	CIN	133	69.2%	7.9	6	4	95.1	0.07
10	Derek Carr	NO	291	67.4%	7.2	12	5	94.8	0.11
11	Josh Allen	BUF	224	67.4%	7.3	11	6	94.0	0.13
12	Will Levis	TEN	101	61.4%	7.5	5	2	92.7	0.08
13	Kyler Murray	ARI	202	68.8%	6.6	7	3	92.2	0.01
14	Matthew Stafford	LA	231	59.3%	7.3	12	4	92.2	0.15
15	Geno Smith	SEA	281	63.7%	7.3	11	5	91.4	0.08
16	Dak Prescott	DAL	198	64.6%	7.1	10	6	89.7	0.05
17	Patrick Mahomes	KC	237	64.1%	6.6	8	5	85.6	0.06
18	Gardner Minshew	IND	249	60.6%	7.4	10	7	85.0	0.04
19	Desmond Ridder	ATL	234	64.5%	7.1	7	6	84.7	-0.06
20	Kenny Pickett	PIT	191	64.4%	6.4	5	3	84.5	-0.13
21	Jordan Love	GB	307	61.6%	6.6	14	10	82.5	0.06
22	Jared Goff	DET	225	65.3%	6.7	10	9	82.4	-0.01
23	Brock Purdy	SF	113	63.7%	9.2	5	7	82.4	0.05
24	Joe Burrow	CIN	173	63.0%	5.8	5	3	81.1	-0.11
25	Joshua Dobbs	MIN	223	62.3%	5.9	10	7	80.6	-0.05
26	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	269	62.1%	6.5	10	10	78.0	-0.10
27	Mac Jones	NE	236	65.7%	6.2	7	9	76.5	-0.19
28	Zach Wilson	NYJ	271	59.8%	6	6	6	75.0	-0.22
29	Bryce Young	CAR	413	59.8%	5.5	10	8	74.8	-0.14
30	Sam Howell	WAS	411	60.8%	6.2	14	17	72.8	-0.12
31	Justin Fields	CHI	137	57.7%	6.7	5	6	72.1	-0.13
32	Aidan O’Connell	LV	169	60.9%	6.6	4	7	70.9	-0.07

AFC Championship Shapes Up As A Slugfest

Lamar Jackson stands out. It raises the question of why the Ravens don’t play as if they’re trailing – i.e., passing more aggressively – all of the time.

When you can post 0.35 points per dropback and a 116.4 rating when behind with a 7.1% TD% and a 1% pick rate, well, you’re the MVP.

Mahomes’s mediocrity in this stat this year is a major outlier.

We all know the amazing comebacks Mahomes has engineered in the postseason, most famously from being down 24-0 to Houston in 2020 (2019 season) and the miracle drive with just 13 seconds left that led to a bounce back against the Bills in 2022 (2021 season).

Jared Goff has always struggled to get off the canvas and lead comebacks. 2023 was no different, witness his 22nd overall finish in rating when trailing in 2023 (21st in EPA, at minus-0.1).

We don’t have much of a sample with Brock Purdy but he was 17th in EPA, though tied essentially with Goff in rating.

Purdy did just engineer a comeback in the divisional round, however.

And he did rally after a poor performance for most of the game, too.

So maybe we have to put an asterisk next to him.

I’m comfortable given the full-year stats in saying that playing from behind again will be asking too much of him.

Let’s look at stats since 2018 when all of these QBs were starters.

Rank	player	Team	Att	Comp%	Yd/Att	AY/Att	PsTD	Int	PsrRt	EPA/DB
1	Patrick Mahomes	KC	982	67.20%	8.1	8.1	70	18	108.1	0.32
3	Lamar Jackson	BAL	471	65.80%	7.9	9.2	29	6	105.0	0.17
23	Jared Goff	DET	1317	64.40%	7.2	7.5	53	31	89.3	0.03

Mahomes is just in another EPA world. His regular-season performance this year was down but he’s been so dominant overall and in the postseason (two Super Bowl comebacks) that you just can’t count him out if he and/or the Chiefs struggle early.

With Jackson, we’re again forced to ask why the Ravens don’t start out playing aggressively so that they can win more easily and earlier.

If you can perform like this when trailing, you sure can when the score is even or if you’re ahead. You love Jackson’s 29 touchdowns on just 471 attempts (6.2%) vs. six picks (1.3%).

Lions Unlikely To Bounce Back From Early Knockdown

That’s what makes the AFC Championship so exciting.

It could be like an epic heavyweight fight where they either go back and forth in taking the lead or where one QB mounts a furious comeback no matter how he happened to start the afternoon.

But in the NFC, any deficit is likely to get worse.

And given the point spread of the Niners being favored by a touchdown, it’s way more likely that the Niners can build a multi-score early lead. If that were to happen, expect things to spiral even worse for Goff and the Lions.

One note stylistically that perhaps indicates how opponents view the quarterbacks: Mahomes was the second-least blitz QB when trailing (behind only C.J. Stroud) at 15.2%.

That’s in line with his 16.4% rate in 2018-23.

Defenses seem to be afraid of attacking Mahomes, even when ahead. Jackson was the 11th MOST blitzed QB at 25.9% (23.2%) is averaged.

So defenses are not showing Jackson the respect in these situations that they probably should (blitzing is not working).

Goff was blitzed essentially average this year when trailing (23.3%), but more frequently in the 2018-23 sample (27.7%).

Purdy was blitzed 24.2% this year, not extreme, as teams probably want to keep extra defenders behind the line of scrimmage given the run-after-catch ability of the San Francisco receivers.