Paul Skenes’ Odds For NL Cy Young Are Getting Shorter

Very rarely does a rookie take the league by storm the way that Paul Skenes has in 2024. Then again, most rookies don’t dominate as much as Skenes has thus far. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates righty made his MLB debut in May. 11 career starts were enough for Skenes to not only make the NL All-Star team but start the game for the Senior Circuit. 

His debut has sparked a Pirates postseason push.

As the All-Star game illustrated, success at a high level tends to come with accolades. Although Skenes missed more than a month, can he pitch well enough to win the NL Cy Young award?

That’s what everybody wants to know. Let’s take a look at how Vegas is adjusting to the phenom and Skenes’ path toward joining an exclusive club. 

The NL Rookie of the Year Odds Heavily Favor Skenes

Before getting to the big fish, Skenes has to check off the NL Rookie of the Year box. 

After all, Chicago Cubs’ rookie pitcher Shota Imanaga was also an All-Star. Teammate Jared Jones was putting together a fine season before hitting the IL. Competition does exist, both as a rookie and a starting pitcher. 

Except, it really doesn’t.

Player	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K%	WAR
Jared Jones	3.56	3.75	1.110	26.4%	1.7
Shota Imanaga	3.06	3.40	1.054	25.7%	2.5
Paul Skenes	1.99	2.69	0.942	32.3%	3.8

Skenes is in another stratosphere than these guys. BetMGM’s NL Rookie of the Year odds have him at -3000. The odds are worse everywhere else. 

If Skenes didn’t pitch another inning for the rest of the year, this award is locked up. None of the batters or pitchers in the Senior Circuit can catch up without a massive falloff from Skenes. 

With that out of the way, the betting option that still has value is up next.

Skenes’ NL Cy Young Odds Are Nearing Favorite Status

As of August 7, the NL Cy Young race is between three horses. Here’s how they stack up at various sportsbooks:

2024 NL Cy Young odds

NL Cy Young Odds
Pitcher	DraftKings	FanDuel	bet365
Chris Sale	+110	+110	+110
Paul Skenes	+200	+240	+200
Zack Wheeler	+250	+220	+225

Skenes’ NL Cy Young odds are the second or third-shortest. Atlanta’s Chris Sale is the favorite while Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler is also in the mix. 

Sale vs. Skenes

If Sale and Wheeler stay healthy, they should have Skenes beat in counting stats thanks to more innings pitched. 

Sale leads all MLB pitchers in wins, an outdated stat that still holds some weight in voting. He’s also paces qualified NL pitchers in ERA, ERA+, FIP, and WHIP.

However, Skenes’ case is built around how absurd his rate stats are, rivaling a starter like Sale already:

Player	ERA	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	K%	BB%	K-BB%	WAR
Chris Sale	2.71	154	2.32	0.951	32.2%	5.8%	26.4%	3.8
Paul Skenes	1.99	206	2.69	0.942	32.3%	5.7%	26.6%	3.8
Zack Wheeler	2.77	148	3.39	0.980	27.3%	7.6%	19.7%	3.4

Wheeler isn’t getting much love here despite a great season because Skenes and Sale have lapped him. The same goes for Hunter Greene, Dylan Cease, and other NL pitchers who are having tremendous seasons.

Sale has the sweet combination of amazing run prevention, elite strikeout numbers, and command not seen since his late Chicago and early Boston days. 2024 has been Sale’s renaissance. This may be his last true chance to win a Cy Young award. 

Yet, Skenes has bested Sale in ERA and ERA+. The rookie has a narrow edge in strikeout rate, walk rate, and WHIP. FIP is Sale’s last hope at their current trajectories and that’s only because he has the lowest HR% of the three. 

After five career starts, Skenes had been charged with nine runs, all earned. In nine outings since then, he has only allowed 11 runs (10 earned) and held every opponent to two or fewer runs. 

Skenes can maintain this pace for the rest of the season. Pittsburgh qualifying for the playoffs would boost his case. Grab these odds while they’re hot. With enough innings pitched, this is Skenes’ award to lose.

Other Rookies to Win Cy Young

It’s a short list, but Skenes could join it by year’s end. There is one other pitcher who took home the NL Cy Young award as a rookie.

• Fernando Valenzuela (1981)

That’s right, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ legend, Valenzuela, is the only player in MLB history to win the Cy Young in their first full season. He was also an All-Star, Rookie of the Year, and Silver Slugger in 1981. Valenzuela finished fifth in MVP voting. 

Sadly, Skenes can’t take home a Silver Slugger award anymore. However, he could still join Valenzuela as the only rookie to take home Cy Young honors. 

Here’s some good news for Pirates fans: Valenzuela’s historic rookie season ended with a World Series win.