MLB 5-Inning Totals (O/U) Betting

Baseball and analytics go together, like Spencer Strider and strikeouts.

Baseball analytics tell us that most starting pitchers will pitch into the fifth inning, but only a few of them make it to the sixth.

Betting on MLB 5-inning totals can often be appealing because it allows us to focus much more on just the starting pitchers and not worry about bullpens.

As a bettor, focusing on just the first five innings means we have fewer variables to consider and, hopefully, a better understanding of how the game script will play out.

Below, we cover:

• Why 5-inning totals betting is becoming so popular
• How full-game odds differ from 5-inning odds
• Strategies to consider when making your next MLB 5-inning totals wager

Let’s go.

Why MLB 5-Inning Totals Betting?

No Bullpen Homework

Handicapping bullpens can be difficult. Who pitched yesterday?

Who is available today?

What matchups are likely to occur?

How long will the starting pitcher go?

By wagering on just the first five innings of a game, we are often taking bullpens out of the equation entirely.

For some bettors, being able to just focus on handicapping the starting pitchers and not bullpens has a lot of appeal.

Niche Market (Secondary Odds)

MLB full game Totals, Moneylines, and Runlines are all very popular bets, especially in the summertime while many of us are waiting for the NFL season to arrive.

One would expect sportsbooks to spend a lot of time and energy on full game lines because the majority of MLB bets placed are on the entire game, not just the first five innings.

Anytime we can bet on markets that are considered niche, we have a better chance of catching sportsbooks not at their best.

Time After Time

While resisting the urge to throw some 1983 Cyndi Lauper Time After Time banger lyrics in here, we can all agree that betting on 5-innings will be a lot less time invested watching the bet play out, compared to betting on 9-inning games.

For those of us looking for an extra hour in the day or who don’t want to stay up until the end of a West Coast late start, five-inning totals betting might be for you.

MLB Odds: Full Game vs First 5-IP

Five innings is 55.55% of a 9-inning game. As a bettor, this means we can expect the 5-inning total to be close to (but not exactly) half of the full game total.

Let’s look at an example.

5 IP vs Full Game Totals

Giants vs Dodgers	SP’s	Full Game Total	5-IP Total
SF Giants	A. Cobb	Under – 8.5 | -115	Under 4 | +100
LA Dodgers	C. Kershaw	Over – 8.5 | -105	Over 4 | -120

In our Giants vs Dodgers matchup, or more specifically, the Alex Cobb vs Clayton Kershaw matchup above, the full game total is set at 8.5 runs.

• The (-115) moneyline on the UNDER tells us Under 8.5 is the betting favorite.
• The five-inning total for this game was set at 4, which is less than 50% of the overall game total.
• In this case, UNDER 4 is the betting underdog, and OVER 4 is the favorite.

Starting Pitching Stats To Consider

Home and Away Splits:

Alex Cobb: Home vs Away

Location	Starts	Innings Pitched	ERA
Home	12	74	1.95
Away	16	77.1	5.70
Overall	28	151.1	3.87

For the season, Alex Cobb had some very serviceable stats for the Giants.

• Twenty-eight (28) starts and 151.1 innings pitched will help a starting rotation.
• A 3.87 ERA will not get you into the Hall of Fame, but it is above league average.
• However, in 16 road starts, Cobb had an ERA of 5.70.

A 5.70 ERA is a long way from 3.87.

Season Stats vs Last 30 Days

Alex Cobb 2023 Stats

Stats Period	Starts	Innings Pitched	ERA
Entire Season	28	151.1	3.87
September Only	3	10.0	8.10

When we compare Cobb over his last three starts vs his season stats, again, bettors will have some reasons to be concerned about his ability to pitch well.

In his ten innings of September work, Cobb allowed nine earned runs.

Two of his three starts lasted three innings or less.

This is good information to know.

Head 2 Head Stats

2023 -Clayton Kershaw vs Giants

Date	Location	Innings Pitched	Earned Runs
Sept 30th	@San Francisco	5.1	2
Sept 23rd	@Los Angeles	5.0	0
April 12th	@San Francisco	6.0	2
Totals		16.1 IP	4 Earned Runs

Switching our attention from Cobb to Clayton Kershaw, we see that in three starts against the Giants last year, Kershaw was very good.

Without diving into the batter vs. pitcher data available for those who want to get even more granular, it looks like Kershaw is comfortable on the mound against his division rivals.

We also notice that although he pitched very well in his three starts against San Francisco, Kershaw averaged just over five innings in those three starts.

5-Inning Totals Betting Strategies

Look For Advantage Opportunities

Above, we discovered that Alex Cobb pitched poorly on the road.

We also learned that Clayton Kershaw has been excellent when facing the Giants.

This is all information that can help us make a more informed decision when it’s time to place our bet.

Dive into some of the more granular stats available.

Afternoon vs Night Games is another opportunity for a bettor to capitalize on.

Some pitchers are comfortable pitching a 1 pm start.

Other pitchers might be out of their routine in the afternoon and perform better in evening games, which are far more common.

There are plenty of sites available where we can find general information about players.

Digging into some of the more granular stats available will take more time but will also provide us with better information to base our decisions on.

Secondary Line Shopping

We briefly discussed how sportsbooks just don’t have the same amount of time and resources to spend on secondary odds compared to odds for full-game betting.

This isn’t to say that the sportsbooks make a lot of mistakes with these odds, and there is easy money to be had.

But one of the smartest strategies is for a bettor to shop around and compare odds on the bets they want to make.

At BestOdds.com, we have done some homework regarding line shopping and NRFI betting.

We found that if you were willing to shop around for the best odds available, a bettor could make significantly more profit, even without improving their winning percentage.

We showed how a 50% success rate NRFI bettor could lose money or make money just by the odds they played for the same 50 bets.

If you aren’t shopping around for the Best Odds available each time you place your 5-inning totals wager, you aren’t giving yourself the best chance to win.

Best 5-Inning Bets Today

Sportsbooks today provide hundreds of different bets for just one major league baseball game.

It can be complicated for bettors to sort through all the options available and understand where they have an advantage and where they don’t.

This is where the BestOdds.com Stats Hub can be an excellent resource for bettors of all experience.

Once at the BestOdds.com homepage, click on the betting stats tab, select your sport of choice, and jump into all the different bet-specific data we are tracking on your behalf.

The Stats Hub provides important trends and hard-to-find data for all types of different niche market bets.

This information can be challenging for bettors to find if they aren’t charting the data themselves on a nightly basis.

Instead, let the BestOdds.com Stats Hub do all the tracking and sorting of the data, allowing you to make better, more informed decisions.