MLB Player Prop Bets Today
MLB Player Prop Bets Today
Thomas Snodgrass
Updated: Aug 29, 2024
Editor’s Note: Thank you for joining us for the 2024 MLB Season! We’ll be back again next year with daily MLB Prop picks.
To help inform your bets over the coming weeks, check out our NRFI and Strikeout stats pages for the latest updates!
We have only a seven-game slate across the MLB for Thursday, but bettors will still have plenty of MLB player props to check out.
Below are my top MLB player props for Thursday, and for bettors searching for some quick MLB betting action, you can find my NRFI pick of the day here.
Let’s jump into the best player props of the day, and as always, with the best odds.
| Pick: Turner – OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases | Best Odds: (+425) bet365 |
| Pick: Semien – OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI | Best Odds: (+100) BetMGM |
Trea Turner – SS, Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies host their divisional rival Washington Nationals tonight, and behind the dish the Nationals’ catchers haven’t been spectacular at nabbing base stealers.
Among all qualifying catchers – 61 total – Washington’s Keibert Ruiz’s 11% caught stealing percentage ranks 51st, and backup catcher Riley Adams has a 10% caught stealing percentage, which ranks 54th.
If Phillies’ shortstop Trea Turner reaches first base, I’m expecting him to get the green light.
Turner hasn’t been stealing bags at the same rate as he has in the past, collecting just 14 in 79 games played this season, but with Philadelphia playing some average baseball of late, compared to their lofty NL-leading standard, I’d expect manager Rob Thompson to start applying some pressure on opposing defenses and pitching staffs.
The best odds for Turner to swipe a base is +425 at bet365, and those odds carry only a 19% implied probability, and based purely off talent and speed alone, Turner is more than 19% likely to steal a base.
Washington has allowed six total stolen bases in six games against Philly this year, and Turner only played in three of those contests.
I’d say someone from the Phillies is taking an extra bag against this defensively inept Nationals catching tandem, and that theft will be from Turner.
Pick: Turner – OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases | Best Odds: (+425) bet365
Marcus Semien – 2B, Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers’ second baseman Marcus Semien may be getting his bat back on track, collecting a hit in each of the last three games.
Tonight, Semien and the Rangers will host the visiting Minnesota Twins, and Minnesota has tabbed righty Bailey Ober as the starting pitcher.
Semien has gone 5-for-9 (.556) with two home runs in his career against Ober, so tonight, I’d expect Semien’s upward trend to continue.
Marcus Semien (42)
— TOR Home Runs (@TOR__HR) February 16, 2023
Opponent: Minnesota Twins
Pitcher: Bailey Ober
Date: 9/24/21 pic.twitter.com/CzoV9rDvek
Semien, the Rangers’ usual leadoff hitter, is in a fortuitous spot against Ober, too.
Ober has allowed a .265 opponent average and a 5.73 ERA in the first inning this season, so the earliest bats may have the best opportunity to strike before Ober settles in.
The YRFI in this contest is an intriguing option, with best odds of +100 on FanDuel, but in the props department, I’m expecting Semien to make an impact on the boxscore.
Pick: Semien – OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI | Best Odds: (+100) BetMGM
What Is A Prop Bet?
MLB player prop bets are wagers on specific individual player performances during a game or season. Prop bets don’t apply directly with the final results of a contest, such as moneylines, spreads, or totals.
Prop bets can include things like how many hits, runs, or strikeouts a player will have in a game, or whether a specific player will hit a home run.
For example, if a bettor believes that the Pittsburgh Pirates will lose but they still see starting pitcher Paul Skenes having a fine game, that bettor can bet on the total number of Skenes’ strikeouts, earned runs, outs recorded, and more.
If the over/under on Skenes’ strikeout total was set at 7.5, and Skenes struck out eight batters, then the over would be the winning bet.
Popular MLB Player Prop Bets
The over/under prop on a pitcher’s strikeout total is a common choice among MLB prop bettors, but here are some other MLB player prop bet examples:
Hits
Bettors can select a player that they believe will record a hit or go hitless in any MLB contest.
Typically, a bet to record a hit will look like this:
| Player | OVER 0.5 Hits | UNDER 0.5 Hits |
| Jose Ramirez – CLE | -255 | +185 |
| Nelson Velazquez – KC | -155 | +115 |
Home Runs
Similarly, bettors can place a wager on which player they believe can hit a home run in any MLB contest.
The odds of hitting a home run are clearly much longer than recording a base hit, so home run props are usually listed with only the odds to record a home run with no over/under option, although some sportsbooks, such as DraftKings will offer the over/under option.
For example on FanDuel, under “To Hit A Home Run”, Pete Alonso is listed with +285 odds to hit a homer, while at DraftKings, Alonso’s odds for a home run sit at OVER 0.5 (+250), UNDER 0.5 (-360).
RBI
Bettors that believe a hitter can cash in with runners in scoring position or find some way to drive in a run can place a wager on a player to record an RBI.
Some sportsbooks provide an over/under 0.5 RBI option, and some do not, so bettors should shop around and find the wagering options that best fit their betting needs.
Obviously, hitters that have a tendency to hit home runs have the ability to drive themselves in with one swing, so those players will naturally carry shorter odds than those that only go deep a few times per season.
Here’s an example of RBI props, courtesy of BetMGM:
| Player | OVER 0.5 RBI | UNDER 0.5 RBI |
| Mookie Betts | +185 | -250 |
| Freddie Freeman | +140 | -185 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +135 | -175 |
Betts has the longest odds of the three to collect an RBI, and this is largely due to the fact that he is the usual leadoff hitter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, so his first at-bat of the game will come with zero men on base.
The odds change for Freeman and Ohtani, who are more likely to bat with baserunners aboard.
Other popular MLB Player Props include:
- Hits+Runs+RBI stat combo
- Total Bases (from hits)
- Runs Scored (individual player)
- Stolen Bases
- Earned Runs (pitcher)
- Outs Recorded (pitcher)
Other Available MLB Player Prop Bets
Typically, most prop bets for hitters will be set at 0.5 on an over/under, while pitchers’ strikeouts, earned runs, and outs recorded will vary, being largely dictated by recent form and their impending matchups.
There are alternatives to usual props as well that offer longer odds, such as:
- First Home Run (compared to “Anytime” Home Run)
- Alternate Strikeouts
- Alternate Hits, Runs, RBI, Total Bases, etc.
- Player vs. Player matchups
- And More!
The number of MLB player props has been growing for years now, so bettors should place a wager on a few different styles of prop bets and find what works best for them.
MLB Team Prop Bets
MLB team props are wagers placed on various team-related outcomes during a game or season. These bets can include bets on the total number of runs scored in a game by a certain team, whether a team will win by a specific margin, or if any team will score in any particular inning.
Team props provide a way to bet on a team’s performance beyond the outcome of the game.
MLB Game Prop Bets
Bettors can place game props as well, which are wagers on specific outcomes that occur during an individual game.
These bets can include things like:
- Yes Or No Runs First Inning?
- Which Team Will Score First?
- Will Game Go Into Extra Innings?
- Will A Home Run Be Hit In The Game?
- Which Team Will Have More Hits?
- Total Number of Pitchers Used By Both Teams
- Number Of Runs Scored In A Specific Inning
- And More!
The most popular MLB game prop has become the NRFI (No Run First Inning) bet.
Bettors interested in more information on NRFI wagers can check out NRFI PRO.
All lines are subject to change.
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