Best MLB Strikeout Props Today | Our Daily Picks: Aug. 9

Way back on Opening Day, Bailey Ober started his year by giving up eight earned runs while recording just four outs in a blowout loss to the Kansas City Royals.

In May, the Twins right-hander gave up 19 runs in just 31 innings pitched and had just one quality start in the six games he started.

Basically, Ober stunk.

And then, one day in June, the Ober stench was gone.

After just one quality start in May, Ober has posted a QS in his last eight consecutive games. 

Today, Bailey and his boys battle the Cleveland Guardians, with Ober’s K-Total set at 5.5.

Bettors looking for more MLB betting action can find our MLB props of the day here.

As always, all betting data and insights below are courtesy of Strikeout PRO! (100% free trial! No credit card required!)

Let’s go!

Today’s Picks

Pick: Bailey Ober UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts | Best Odds: (-145) DraftKings

Pick: Ryne Nelson OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | Best Odds: (-105) DraftKings

Bailey Ober – SP, Minnesota Twins

Today against Cleveland, Ober’s strikeout total is either 4.5 or 5.5, depending on your sportsbook of choice and which side of the total you prefer.

Ober has not had an issue getting over 4.5 or even 5.5 during his eight-consecutive quality start streak.

Bailey Ober L5 Starts

The Strikeout PRO player profile card shows that Ober has crushed the 4.5 total in four of his last five starts.

Against the offensively challenged White Sox and Tigers, the Twins veteran had a combined 18 Ks in 15 innings. 

Ober: Need To Know Stats

• Over his L10 starts, Ober is averaging exactly 7.00 strikeouts per start. That is up from the 6.10 he is averaging for the season.

• His SWSTR% of 14% for the season is elite, and among pitchers starting today, he trails only Garrett Crochet and Carlos Rodon in that stat category.

• Against Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, and Steven Kwan – Ober has just three strikeouts in 29 at-bats vs those four Cleveland players.

Guardians: Need To Know Stats

• The Strikeout PRO hitting stats section shows that the Cleveland Guardians are an elite contact team that strikes out well below the league average.

• Cleveland Sluggers Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have a combined 55 home runs and have only struck out a combined 136 times in 217 games.

• In July, Steven Kwan struck out exactly ten times in 100 at-bats. (10% K-Rate)

Final Thoughts:

After May, I thought Ober might be done or at least proving to be just another average pitcher. That is obviously not the case.

However, Cleveland is super elite at not striking out, and 5.5 is such a big number for an SP against the Guardians I am going to play this one UNDER.

Pick: Bailey Ober UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts | Best Odds: (-145) DraftKings

B. Ober data courtesy Strikeout PRO. (Try the 7-day, 100% free trial, No C.C. required)

Ryne Nelson – SP, Arizona D-Backs

Looking at his recent performance only, you might think that Ryne Nelson is a bit of a strikeout machine.

Ryne Nelson L5 Starts

Nelson has over 30 strikeouts in his last five starts, and in three of those five, the D-Backs 26-year-old righty had at least seven Ks.

Those are impressive short-term stats.

Nelson: Need To Know Stats

• Nelson is averaging 4.11 Ks per start for the season, and over his L10, that average jumps to 5.10 per start.

• His K% of 18.14% and SWSTR% of 7.90% are both well below the league average.

• Against Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, Nelson has two strikeouts in 16 at-bats. (12.5%)

Phillies: Need To Know Stats

• For the season, the Phillies are slightly better than the league average at not striking out. In their L3 games (Montgomery, Stone, Kershaw), Philadelphia has struck out only 16 times.

• Bryce Harper was awful in July, finishing the month with just a .149 batting average. In his seven August games, Harper is hitting .333 so far.

• UNDER bettors have to be concerned if Schwarber, N. Castellanos, and B. Marsh are all in the lineup. Those three Philly hitters all have triple-digit strikeouts.

Final Thoughts:

Despite his recent totals, Ryne Nelson just doesn’t have the underlying metrics to convince me that OVER is the play.

I’m going UNDER 4.5 Ks today.

Pick: Ryne Nelson UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

R. Nelson stats courtesy Strikeout PRO. (Try the 7-day, 100% free trial, No C.C. required)

Why Bet Strikeout Props?

Like 100 years ago, when dinosaurs were just recently not a thing, people used to do stuff like bet on sports, even though player and game props were not yet invented.

We understand that Ford still deserves credit, even if very few of us are driving Model T’s today.

Just like the Model T, the MLB prop bets available today have evolved significantly since the betting industry first became a thing.

One reason I bet strikeout props and other similar MLB player props is that I find them far more entertaining than traditional MLB bets like runline, moneyline, and totals.

With that in mind, Kevin Gausman is an elite Major League pitcher. 

I don’t know much about his team, the Toronto Blue Jays, but I do know Gausman is very good at what he does.

Anytime the Toronto Blue Jays play, I am far more interested in individual players like Gausman, Vladdy Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette than in the outcome of the actual game.

The legalization of sports betting has led to a far more competitive market. Sportsbooks use technology and new types of bets to gain market share and customer loyalty. 

Strikeout Prop betting is just one example of that.

Did I mention it’s a lot of fun? Because it is, and I probably should have mentioned that first.

Where To Place Strikeout Prop Bets

Every respectable online sportsbook allows us to wager on a starting pitcher’s total strikeouts. Sometimes, the bets are hidden in different places or are called different names.

Let’s see where we can quickly place our next strikeout prop bet.

FanDuel Sportsbook

At FanDuel, to find the Strikeout Totals bet, remember to let the Popular tab be your friend.

1. Click the game of your choice.

2. The Strikeouts bet is located under the Popular tab. Scroll down until you see Player Strikeouts.

DraftKings Sportsbook

Finding this bet on the DraftKings site is just as easy as it was on the FanDuel site.

1. Click the Pitcher Props tab
2. From there, DK makes it really easy to find the bet called Strikeouts Thrown.

DK Strikeouts Thrown Odds:

Bet365 Sportsbook

The bet365 sportsbook is another experience that makes online strikeout betting super quick and super easy.

1. Click the game of your choice
2. Click the Player Props tab
3. Scroll down, and find the wager called Pitcher Strikeouts. It’s just that easy.

Tools For Strikeout Prop Betting

When the prop betting market first started to expand, very few recreational bettors were realistically able to compete with the sportsbooks because the operators held all the data.

As the industry continues to mature, tools and products are now starting to be developed with the betting public in mind, and not just the huge operators. 

Once businesses realized an opportunity to partner with the recreational betting community and provide the same information supplied to the sportsbooks, the playing field became much more level.

What Is Strikeout PRO

Like a high fastball at the top of the zone or a late-breaking curveball down and away, Strikeout PRO is the great equalizer between recreational bettors and sportsbooks.

In 2024, thanks to something called the internet, we are not short on information. 

However, what makes Strikeout PRO so interesting is that it is a massive information tool, completely focused on just one prop bet.

Every stat, every page, and every section of this tool was designed to make the most informed betting decisions possible and ultimately win more strikeout prop bets.

A few of the stats bettors can find inside the Strikeout PRO tool:

• Avg. Strikeouts / Game Started
• Strikeouts / Inning Pitched
• Strikeout Percentage
• Team Offense Strikeout Information
• Detailed Player Profile Cards
• Pitcher vs Batter: Head-to-Head Data

In a world of information overload, Strikeout PRO is a welcome throwback for its unapologetic straightforward approach.

The Strikeout PRO is good at only one thing and doesn’t pretend to do anything else. 

However, if you are into Strikeout Prop bets, and are looking to become an expert in one specific bet, then you will definitely be into the very niche data provided by Strikeout PRO.

How To Win More Strikeout Prop Bets

The reality is that 90% of the recreational betting market uses sports betting as a complete form of entertainment, enhancing sporting events they were already planning on attending or at least watching.

On the list of things to do, price shopping, and playing the best odds available don’t necessarily rank very high.

However, most of us are willing to change our shopping, eating, and other spending habits when we see a significant savings opportunity.

Eventually, the sports betting industry will follow that trend, and I think I can help show you why.

Let’s go.

Why Shop Around?

Earlier, we provided the following odds table:

T. Skubal Betting Odds:

FanDuel	DraftKings	Unibet
Over 6.5 | -120	Over 6.5 | -140	Over 6.5 | -109
Payout $8.33	Payout $7.14	Payout $9.17

The point we were trying to make with our Tarik Skubal odds table is that by shopping around, a bettor could improve their ROI by more than 20%, just by playing the Best Odds.

When most people looked at the odds table, they didn’t see 20%; instead, they saw a profit difference of $2.03. 

And in 2024, $2 doesn’t stretch as far as it once did. 

That $2 in profit is probably not enough for us to change our behavior.

However, let’s play out what that $2 profit difference looks like over the course of a single baseball season.

March 28th, 2024 – It’s Opening Day for the MLB season, and our hypothetical bettor has set a goal of trying to be a profitable Strikeout Prop bettor for the 2024 MLB season.

Every day, Bettor X will make one $10 wager on a starting pitcher to go Over or Under his K-Total.

We will assume that Bettor X wins 50% of their wagers and loses 50% of their wagers. 

This is what the math would look like in that scenario above.

• Total bets placed – 6 months x 30 days = 180 MLB Strikeout Prop Bets approx)

• Total money wagered – 180 bets x $10 / wager = $1800

• Total bets won – 50% of 180 bets = 90 winning strikeout prop bets

This is where the math gets fun. 

• The profit for 90 bets won at -140 odds (90 x $7.14) = $642.60

• The profit for 90 bets won at -109 odds (90 x $9.17) = $825.30

• That is an overall difference of $182.70. 

So, the difference for someone who is a $10 bettor/night and wins exactly 50% of their games is almost a difference of $200 for just one single MLB regular season.

Imagine if that person decides to be an MLB bettor for multiple years.

Understanding that convenience in modern society tends to be the ultimate deciding factor, the advantages of having a few different accounts set up to play the Best Odds available for each game are truly significant over time.

If you aren’t playing your Best Odds on a regular basis, the reality is you just aren’t giving yourself the best possible chance to win long-term.