Brent Booher
Updated: Oct 30, 2023
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The World Series resumes this evening from Chase Field in Phoenix for Game 3 between the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks.
After taking Game 1 in thrilling walk-off fashion, the Rangers proceeded to get smacked around in a 9-1 Game 2 loss with D’Backs pitcher Merrill Kelly throwing seven innings in which he only gave up one run on just three base hits.
Now Arizona heads back home where they look to take command of this series, but first they have to get through prized trade-deadline acquisition Max Scherzer.
Without further ado, here are our favorite player prop bets entering Game 3.
Adolis Garcia OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Prior to the thumping handed to the Rangers in Game 2, Adolis Garcia had cleared 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in 11 of his previous 12 games this postseason and he remains the short-favorite to win World Series MVP for a reason.
There is simply not a more dangerous player in baseball right now than Adolis Garcia.
Tonight, Garcia faces Diamondbacks’ rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who has had a memorable first postseason in his own right (more on this in a bit).
Despite Pfaadt’s electric stuff this October, he is still a rookie and facing the Rangers’ hottest slugger is a big challenge in itself.
Perhaps Game 2 was a signal that Adolis is slowly returning to Earth, however, I think they will come out in Game 3 a much hungrier team than they did on Saturday night and Garcia will once again be at the center of all of it.
Best Odds: DraftKings (-140)
Max Scherzer UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts
When the Rangers acquired Max Scherzer from the Mets prior to the deadline, many that follow the game of baseball saw Scherzer as the perfect band-aid to a reeling rotation that had already lost Jacob deGrom and was feeling the strain of a shaky bullpen during a midseason swoon.
While the trade hasn’t been a complete disaster, Scherzer hasn’t looked like the ‘Mad Max’ iteration we’ve grown accustomed to seeing throughout his decorated Major League career.
Max has yet to reach the fifth inning in both his outings with the Rangers and his last four playoff starts overall, and he’s gone under the 4.5 strikeout number in his last three playoff outings including both starts against Houston in the 2023 ALCS.
Simply put, he just seems to have hit some sort of wall, which is understandable considering the many innings he’s logged throughout his career.
Despite Nathan Eovaldi’s eight punchout performance in Game 1, the Diamondbacks typically are not a team that strikes out in bunches against RHP. They were especially good at avoiding getting fanned in bunches at Chase Field where they had the 3rd lowest K rate against righties this season.
This just feels like a spot where Scherzer could once again struggle to make life easy on himself as the Diamondbacks rack up the pitch count and chase the veteran early.
Best Odds: FanDuel (-118)
Brandon Pfaadt OVER 4.5 Strikeouts
In the same manner that Adolis Garcia has become an October superstar, so has Arizona Diamondbacks rookie pitcher Brandon Pfaadt.
After striking out nine in a massive Game 3 win of the NLCS, Pfaadt got the start in Game 7 and punched out seven more Phillies’ batters and has been red hot during this entire playoff run for the Diamondbacks.
Despite not recording an official win in his four playoff starts this postseason, Arizona has gone on to win all four starts by Pfaadt.
As is the case with any rookie pitcher, Pfaadt’s first season in the desert has had its ups and downs.
After hitting an early season slump, Pfaadt was sent back down to Triple-A before being called up again and gradually in every start he has seemingly got better and better.
Over his last seven starts, Pfaadt has struck out at least five batters in five of those games. D’Backs manager Torey Lavullo also will not let Pfaadt work through the Rangers order once the lineup turns over for a third time, so realistically Pfaadt will have to get to five strikeouts by around the 5th inning.
It’s just very difficult to look at how he’s been pitching lately and not thinking he will find a way to punch out five batters, no matter how dynamic a lineup the Rangers bring to the table.
Back the rookie to have another solid outing tonight and to clear his strikeout prop as a result.
Best Odds: DraftKings (-105)
Ketel Marte OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Maybe it’s square. Maybe it’s oversimplifying the process. Or maybe it’s just the right thing to do.
In addition to backing the hottest Texas Rangers slugger to clear his HRR prop, we’re going to back the hottest Diamondbacks batter to do the same by taking Ketel Marte to clear 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI tonight.
Marte has continued his strong performance against the Rangers in this series and has now cleared this mark in five of the six games he’s played against them this season.
If his performance against Texas isn’t enough to sway you, he’s also cleared his HRR prop in 11 of 14 games overall this postseason. The man is just locked in at the plate.
Marte does enter tonight’s game with a 1-for-9 career statline against Max Scherzer, but these are players trending in very different directions entering Game 3.
Back Ketel until there’s enough reason not to do any longer.
Best Odds: DraftKings (-130)
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