NBA Fourth-Quarter ATS Betting

There is a conversation amongst NBA basketball fans; you may be familiar with it.

Question: Who is the NBA G.O.A.T.?

Answer Options:

• A) Michael Jordan
• B) LeBron James
• C) Someone else

Today, we won’t be settling that argument, but we do have our opinions and would love to hear your thoughts. (malcolm@bestodds.com)

What isn’t up for debate, however, is that LeBron James and his Los Angeles Lakers were the greatest fourth-quarter team league-wide in 2022-’23.

Against the fourth-quarter spread, the Lake-Show were a ridiculous 56-26.

That’s a 68% cover rate.

Sure, MJ remains one of the pillars of NBA basketball twenty years after his retirement, but did he ever cover fourth-quarter spreads at close to a 70% clip?

If you like betting on the NBA fourth-quarter point spreads, you might also enjoy betting on NBA 1st quarter totals.

Betting NBA Fourth-Quarter Spreads

As a bettor, when analyzing fourth-quarter point spreads, we want to dive into individual teams and find out how they perform specifically in the game’s final 12 minutes.

2022 4th QTR Betting Stats

Team	4th QTR ATS	Rank	Full Game ATS	Rank
LA Lakers	56-26	1	40-41-1	17th
PHI 76ers	49-33	2	47-34-1	1st
MIA Heat	48-34	T3	30-49-3	T29th
TOR Raptors	48-34	T3	41-39-2	14th
IND Pacers	47-35	T5	42-39-1	13th
ORL Magic	47-35	T5	45-35-1	5th

There are lots of resources for bettors to find out how NBA teams perform against full-game point spreads.

When we start to study how teams perform specifically against the 4th-QTR spread, we notice that full-game point spread data doesn’t really help us with this wager.

The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat had virtually the same record covering fourth-quarter spreads.

However, the 76ers were the best team in the league at covering traditional full-game point spreads, while the Heat were tied for last.

NBA Fourth Quarter ATS Odds

Fourth Quarter point spreads will be close to 25% of the full-game point spread.

The theory by oddsmakers is that if a team is favored to win by 6 points, then winning by 1.5 points each quarter will get you to 6.

NBA – Bulls vs Lakers

Teams	Game Point Spread	4th QTR Spread
CHI Bulls	+6 | -105	+1.5 | -110
LA Lakers	-6 | -115	-1.5 | -110

In our example game above, the point spread for the Chicago Bulls vs Los Angeles Lakers game is 6 points.

Therefore, the fourth quarter point spread is 1.5 points, which is 25% of 6.

The Lakers are -6 point favorites, and the moneyline is -115 or juiced more towards LA.

The -115 line can tell us that the sportsbooks might move the line to 6.5 points if money continues to come in on the Lakers.

Even though the overall point spread doesn’t impact our fourth-quarter bets, it’s always good to be aware of the overall game spread.

Handicapping NBA 4th QTR Spreads

Even teams that win a lot of basketball games rarely win all four quarters of each game.

But what opportunities are presented to us by betting on just NBA fourth-quarter point spreads and not traditional full-game spreads?

• Do you predict a game script where one team might jump out to a big lead? Is there a chance that one team might be resting starters or key players late in the game?
• Is there a team that has been resting for a few days and is at risk of starting slowly but will probably find their legs, and you expect them to be at full speed in the 4th QTR?
• Is there a team at the end of a long road trip that you might expect to start strong but fade as the game plays out?

Because fourth-quarter point spread betting is only about the final 12 minutes of an NBA game, bettors need to develop a game script, try to predict how the first three quarters might play out, and then use that information to predict the fourth.

In many situations, teams lose games or don’t cover full game spreads but still cover a 4th QTR spread.

How To Use NBA 4th QTR Standings Page

Using the BestOdds.com 4th QTR standings page is even easier than predicting Kyrie Irving will turn his back on his current team and eventually demand to be traded.

Each night, the BestOdds.com fourth-quarter standings page is updated, so each day, bettors can use the page to help handicap fourth-quarter point spread opportunities.

The BestOdds.com standings pages are all sortable and displayed in a very user-friendly format, so finding the information you need to make your bet is easy.

Always Shop Around

It’s important to remember that when we are betting point spreads, there is still a moneyline associated with each spread.

4th QTR ATS – Clippers vs Warriors

Teams	DraftKings	FanDuel	Caesars
LA Clippers	+0.5 | -120	+0.5 | -114	+1.5 | -145
GS Warriors	-0.5 | +100	-0.5 | -109	-1.5 | +115

In our table above, we see why it is essential for bettors to shop around for the best possible odds each time we want to place a wager.

If we compare odds between DraftKings and FanDuel, anyone looking to bet the Clippers to cover would prefer the -114 instead of -120 odds.

However, if you think the Warriors will cover the 4th QTR spread at home, we would much rather have the +100 offered by DraftKings instead of the -109 at FanDuel.

Meanwhile, our third sportsbook for this wager is Caesars.

Caesars has an entirely different point spread set, and their moneyline odds differ greatly because of their spread.

A Golden State Warriors bettor would want to look at the -0.5 | +100 offered by DK and compare that to the -1.5 | +115 offered at Caesars.

What is your risk appetite like, and do you want to force Golden State to cover another full point but gain a bigger profit in return?

Only the bettors who regularly line shop for the Best Odds available can maximize their profit opportunities.