Thomas Snodgrass
Updated: Nov 20, 2023
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Now that we are nearing the end of the 2023 College Football season, there have been plenty of changes to the Heisman Trophy odds.
Some players, such as quarterbacks Caleb Williams of USC and J.J. McCarthy of Michigan, have plummeted down the odds list, while others, like quarterback Jayden Daniels of LSU, have steadily climbed the odds.
Let’s explore some potential Heisman Trophy winners, and a few that may go home empty handed this December.
Of course, each Heisman candidate is listed with the current best odds.
The Favorites
Jayden Daniels – QB, LSU (+140 BetMGM)
72.6% Completion Percentage, 3,577 Passing Yards, 46 Total TDs (10 Rushing), 4 INT
Jayden Daniels of LSU continues to put up gaudy numbers, and even after showing success with both his arm and his legs, he still holds the best passer rating in the NCAA (208.3). The next closest man in passer rating is Oregon’s Bo Nix (191.4).
Daniels is averaging 325.2 passing yards per game, and 92.2 rushing yards per game, so his dual-threat ability certainly puts him near the top of the NCAA ranks in most electrifying players.
LSU lost a big Week 10 matchup to the Alabama Crimson Tide, a win that certainly would have boosted Daniels’ chances of winning the Heisman. The loss to Alabama gives the Tigers three losses now, but Caleb Williams won the Heisman last year on a three-loss USC team, so it’s not impossible.
The last player prior to Williams to win the Heisman with three or more team losses was Lamar Jackson of the 9-4 Louisville Cardinals in 2016.
Daniels had a stat-padding day against the Georgia State Panthers in Week 12, completing 25-of-30 passes for 413 yards and six touchdowns, then running for another 96 yards and two touchdowns.
In Daniels’ late-season push to take home the Heisman, he has scored 16 total touchdowns in the last three weeks, even though eight of those came against a 6-5 Georgia State team from the Sun Belt Conference.
In just two short weeks, Daniels’ odds to win the Heisman have jumped from +1200 to -120 on bet365.
A four-touchdown game in Week 13 against the Texas A&M Aggies would give Daniels 50 total touchdowns on the season.
A milestone number like 50 touchdowns may be what the Heisman voters are looking for in this year’s winner.
Bo Nix – QB, Oregon (+150 DraftKings)
78.1% Completion Percentage, 3,539 Passing Yards, 40 Total TDs (5 Rushing), 2 INT
Bo Nix continues to put up impressive numbers, and in Week 12 against the Arizona State Sun Devils, Nix threw for six touchdown passes, ALL IN THE FIRST HALF!
A dominant showing against an inferior Pac-12 opponent will do wonders for Nix’s Heisman odds.
Oregon is now 10-1 on the season, the only loss coming against Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington Huskies, and with the Ducks still in the National Championship conversation, Nix’s name shall remain in the Heisman conversation, too.
Similar to Daniels at LSU, Nix is making a late-season push for the Heisman Trophy as well.
Nix has scored 16 touchdowns in the last three games, all against Pac-12 Conference competition.
Despite the Heisman odds favoring Daniels on most sportsbooks, I prefer the odds for Nix, considering his team may still have a shot at a National Championship.
Oregon’s odds for the National Championship currently sit at +700 at Caesars.
Michael Penix Jr. – QB, Washington (+600 FanDuel)
66.3% Completion Percentage, 3,695 Passing Yards, 33 Total TDs (3 Rushing), 7 INT
After opening the season with +1600 odds to win the Heisman on BetMGM, Penix now sits at +600 on FanDuel.
Penix started the season on a tear, completing 72.1 percent of his passes and averaging 383.5 passing yards per game and threw 20 touchdowns in the first six games.
In the last five games, Penix has completed just 59.4 percent of his passes, averaging 278.8 passing yards per game, and has thrown just 10 touchdowns.
The hot start for Penix appears to be running out of steam in November.
Washington is still undefeated, 11-0, and they have a realistic shot of making the final four in the College Football Playoff.
With only the Washington State Cougars left on the regular season schedule, the Huskies should have an undefeated season.
At the moment, Washington is stuck in the No. 5 bubble spot for the Playoff, and if they can leapfrog Florida State, or even one of Michigan or Ohio State, whoever loses that Big Ten rivalry matchup in Week 13, Penix’s chances of winning the Heisman are slightly more realistic.
Even though Penix has dipped in production of late, an appearance at the Heisman finalist ceremony seems like a forgone conclusion.
Heisman Trophy Sleepers
Marvin Harrison Jr. – WR, Ohio State (+5000 FanDuel)
62 Receptions, 1,093 Receiving Yards, 14 Total TDs (1 Rushing)
While the Heisman Trophy is dominated by quarterbacks, current Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver, and former-Alabama standout receiver, DeVonta Smith has proved that the best player in the NCAA is not always a QB.
Marvin Harrison could prove the same in 2023.
Smith was a member of an undefeated team (Alabama was 13-0 in 2020), and he caught 117 passes for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns.
Harrison’s numbers are distant to Smith’s 2020, but the talent is there and he could add a few more games to his Heisman resume if Ohio State is to make the College Football Playoff.
Many believe that Harrison is the best player in College Football, regardless of position, and it will be interesting to see how Heisman voters view the most popular receiver in the NCAA.
Harrison has eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark in seven of his 11 games this season, going over 160 receiving yards three times, including in the Buckeyes huge win over Penn State in Week 8, when Harrison totaled a season-high 11 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown.
Harrison is currently on a seven game touchdown streak, scoring eleven total touchdowns in that time.
Ohio State is currently No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings and the Buckeyes have a very realistic chance of winning the National Championship, putting Harrison’s name on the biggest stage.
The Buckeye’s rivalry game with Michigan is in Week 13, and if Harrison can produce eye-popping numbers in one of the biggest games of the season, it should only increase his chances of stealing away the Heisman from one of the aforementioned quarterbacks.
Harrison’s name is already popular, due to his father being in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and I can see a potential storyline of Harrison at least making the Heisman ceremony just for the father-son publicity.
The talent is there for Harrison to win regardless of any feel-good stories.
Carson Beck – QB, Georgia (+8000 FanDuel)
72.9% Completion Percentage, 3,320 Passing Yards, 24 Total TDs (3 Rushing), 5 INT
Beck’s Heisman odds vary wildly across different sportsbooks.
Beck’s best odds are +8000 at FanDuel, but he also sits at +4000 on bet365, +6000 on DraftKings, and +3500 on Caesars.
It’s always important to shop around for the best odds!
Georgia is the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings and they very well could win their third-consecutive NCAA title, so backing their quarterback doesn’t appear to be a terrible bet.
While Georgia continues to win every week, Beck’s performances have been solid, but possibly not Heisman worthy.
Beck has a softball matchup against Georgia Tech in Week 13, but even a six-touchdown game could still have Beck on the outside looking in.
Beck’s 24 total touchdowns are solid, but that number may be too distant in comparison to Daniels’ and Nix’s touchdown totals; both quarterbacks responsible for 40 or more touchdowns.
A chance at a National Title three-peat for Georgia will look good on Beck’s record, but this is an individual achievement, so even a continuation of a College Football dynasty may not be enough to move the needle for Beck.
Heisman Trophy Historical Winners
Season | Heisman Trophy Winner | School | Position | No. Of Points Received |
2022 | Caleb Williams | USC | Quarterback | 2,031 |
2021 | Bryce Young | Alabama | Quarterback | 2,311 |
2020 | DeVonta Smith | Alabama | Wide Receiver | 1,856 |
2019 | Joe Burrow | LSU | Quarterback | 2,608 |
2018 | Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | Quarterback | 2,167 |
2017 | Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | Quarterback | 2,398 |
2016 | Lamar Jackson | Louisville | Quarterback | 2,144 |
2015 | Derrick Henry | Alabama | Running Back | 1,832 |
2014 | Marcus Mariota | Oregon | Quarterback | 2,534 |
2013 | Jameis Winston | Florida State | Quarterback | 2,205 |
2012 | Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M | Quarterback | 2,029 |
2011 | Robert Griffin III | Baylor | Quarterback | 1,687 |
How Is The Winner Decided?
The winner of the trophy is decided via a voting process. The Heisman Memorial Trust sends electronic ballots to members of the media and former Heisman Trophy winners.
The bulk of the voters are journalists who cover college football in six different regions. These regions are: The Far West, Southwest, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, South, and Midwest.
There are 145 media voters from each region, making up a total of 870 media voters. Aside from journalists and former winners, fans are also awarded 1 vote.
The voters (the media and the former winners) then get to select their three best regular-season players. There are no restrictions on who the voters can vote for, just as long as the player plays college football at any level.
A first-place vote is equivalent to three points, a second-place vote is equivalent to two, while a third-place vote allows a single point to the chosen player.
Of course, the player who receives the bulk of the votes wins the Heisman Trophy.
A list of finalists—typically between three to six finalists—is revealed a few days before the Heisman Trophy Ceremony.
The winner of the trophy is then announced during the ceremony, which usually takes place in December just before the postseason bowl games begin.
How To Bet On 2023 Heisman Trophy
Betting on the winner of the 2023 Heisman trophy is extremely easy.
Football bettors need just need to follow these simple steps and sound betting strategies:
- Log in to your betting account.
- On the sports menu, select football.
- Click the “NCAAF Betting Odds” tab.
- Scroll down till you see the “Heisman Trophy Winner” market.
- Select your pick from the available players.
- Enter the amount that you wish to wager on the bet-slip window.
- Confirm and submit your wager.
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