Betting NFL SGP

There is no better feeling for a sports bettor than to land a parlay and get a big payout in the process.

If we find a scenario where winning one leg of a parlay increases the chances of winning other legs of that same parlay, wouldn’t we all be interested in looking at that option?

Correlation in sports betting means when one event happens, another event is more likely to happen as well.

Same Game Parlays allow us to bet on events where if one thing happens (Like Patrick Mahomes going over his passing total), we can also bet on another event that is likely to happen. (Like the Chiefs going over their team total points.)

For the longest time, Same Game Parlays were not allowed because sportsbooks didn’t know how to price the correlation of events involved with SGPs.

If Cooper Kupp goes over his receiving yards total in a game, then Matthew Stafford might also have a better-than-average chance of going over his passing total.

It was only a few years ago, FanDuel developed its own SGP pricing model and launched the first NFL Same Game Parlay products.

All other licensed online sportsbooks had to scramble and develop their own SGP products after FanDuel jumped the market.

Today, SGPs are available in different forms at all major licensed online sportsbooks.

NFL Parlay Betting

Traditionally, if you were betting on NFL parlays, you had a variety of different games on your ticket.

Those specializing in point spreads probably like to build a ticket with point spreads from 3 or 4 games.

The same idea applies to bettors who enjoy totals and moneylines.

NFL Parlay Example

Bet	Odds
Miami to cover +2.5 vs Buffalo	-110
Seattle to cover +6.5 vs San Francisco	-110
Chicago to cover +1.5 vs Detroit	-110
Kansas City to cover -3.5 vs LA Chargers	-110
Total Wager – $10	Payout – $122.83

In our NFL parlay example above, the bettor has placed a 4-leg parlay, betting four different NFL point spreads.

Calculating the payout for this parlay is straightforward. It is just multiplying the four moneylines together. In this case, they are all -110.

To simplify calculating your parlay odds, BestOdds.com has a Parlay Calculator that is easy to use.

As bettors, we know that if Miami covers against Buffalo in game one of the parlay above, that outcome has no correlation to the Kansas City vs LA Chargers game.

Sportsbooks can price these traditional NFL parlays and not worry about the correlation of events impacting the outcome.

And then Same Game Parlays came along….

What Are Correlated Odds?

Because of correlated odds, NFL bettors could not parlay events from the same game on a parlay ticket.

Simply put, a correlated odds parlay is a bet where the different outcomes are tied together, and if one event occurs, the other one is more likely to occur.

Let’s use Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins as an example.

Correlated Odds Parlay Example:

• Event 1 – Miami Dolphins Under their team total points of 19.5
• Event 2 – Tua Tagovailoa Under 225.5 passing yards

In our example above, the NFL bettor has decided to parlay two events together. The first bet is for the Dolphins to go under their team total points, set at 19.5.

The second bet is for the Dolphins starting QB, Tua Tagovailoa, to go Under his total passing yards, set at +225.5 yards.

In this case, the bettor has developed a theory that the Miami Dolphins will not score many points. Therefore, it is likely that Tua doesn’t have a strong game statistically if the Miami offense is shut down.

It is easy to visualize how if one of those events happens, the other would be more likely to occur.

Of course, it’s possible Tua doesn’t reach his passing yards total, but Miami still scores more than 20 points. The Dolphins could score on defense, special teams, or both.

What Is An NFL Same Game Parlay?

Where traditional NFL parlays involve multiple bets from multiple games, an SGP is multiple bets all from the same game.

Let’s look at an example.

NFL Same Game Parlay Example

Bet	Odds
Miami to cover +2.5 vs Buffalo	-110
Tua Tagovaloia over +225.5 passing yards	-115
Miami over Team Total +19.5 points	-110
Josh Allen over +0.5 interceptions	-125
Total Wager – $10	Payout – TBD

In our SGP example above, the bettor has developed a theory that Tua and his Miami Dolphins will have a good game against the Buffalo Bills.

Some of these events are correlated, meaning if one happens, another one might also be more likely to happen.

Tua’s passing yards total is set at +225.5 yards. If he goes over that total, it might mean the Miami offense is having a very good day moving the ball.

If the Miami offense moves the ball effectively, they could be more likely to go over their Team Total points set at +19.5 points.

It’s important to look at the Payout for our example above. If these events were from four games, we could multiply the odds together to figure out our payout.

However, each sportsbook has its own SGP pricing model, and each sportsbook keeps the details of that algorithm in-house, choosing not to share its SGP pricing model.

NFL SGP Betting Strategies

Develop Your NFL Game Narrative

Same Game Parlays (SGPs) are about researching and developing a narrative for how you believe the game will be played.

Once a bettor has a vision for how they believe the game will finish, they can start researching the many different bets offered on that game and partner some correlated odds together.

The obvious strategy is determining whether you believe a team will score a lot or a few points in a game.

Once you have a strong opinion of a team’s ability to score, you can pair that with individual player prop bets.

If you believe that the Cowboys will put up a lot of points against the New York Giants, you could bet the Cowboys team total over and then focus on Dak Prescott or CeeDee Lamb prop bets to fill out your card.

If the Cowboys score a lot of points, the odds are that Dak Prescott will have himself a good game.

If Dak Prescott has a good game, chances are CeeDee Lamb also had a good day catching the football.

NFL Injuries And Player Usage

One advantage a bettor has over the sportsbooks is reacting quickly when injury news is released.

That is especially true if a bettor strongly understands player usage for a particular team.

If Ja’Marr Chase is ruled out for the Cincinnati Bengals, the ten targets per game he averaged will be distributed somewhere else.

Of course, another Bengals receiver will get an opportunity to start in place of Chase. But that doesn’t mean Cincinnati will throw the ball to that player ten times a game as they did with Chase.

Will other Bengals receivers see more opportunities?

Will Cincinnati run the ball more without Chase on the field?

A bettor who can answer those questions accurately can succeed with their long-term SGP bets.

Understand NFL Stat Distribution

Once we have developed our game narrative and have an idea of how we believe the game will play out, we try to find correlating bets to support our theory.

However, it is crucial as we are doing that to understand NFL stat distribution and not get caught up in over-betting our narrative.

Let’s use Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs as an example.

A bettor might have a theory that KC and the Las Vegas Raiders will score many points, especially the Chiefs, who are playing at home.

A sportsbook will provide many options for us to bet on this theory. Some of those bets could include:

• Kadarius Toney to score anytime touchdown
• Marquez Valding-Scantling to score anytime touchdown
• Travis Kelce to score anytime touchdown
• Isiah Pacheco to score anytime touchdown

Even if a bettor believes that the Chiefs are about the light up the Raiders’ defense, the odds of all four Kansas City players scoring a touchdown in the game are extremely low.

In this case, a bettor would be wise to study individual player matchups and pick one or two players to score a touchdown, not all four.

Very rarely in an NFL game would a team have four individual players on offense score a touchdown in the same game.

Maybe Travis Kelce has a significant advantage and could score multiple touchdowns in this case. Maybe Pacheco has the advantage if Las Vegas struggles to stop the run game.

Understanding stat distribution and how teams score points, even in blowout victories, is critical.

Why Do Sportsbooks Offer NFL Same Game Parlays?

If the bookmakers are offering it, then they must believe they have somewhat of an edge.

Traditional parlays, those with events from multiple games have proven to be harder to win than SGPs, where odds are often correlated.

The only defense a sportsbook has against correlated events is to alter the pricing model.

Documenting your NFL SGP parlays vs your traditional NFL parlays is always a good idea.

When you document this information you can look back at the pricing and odds offered, and you can get an overall total of your success with one vs the other.

If you play a lot of same game parlays, you would expect to win them at a higher percentage than traditional parlays, because you aren’t earning as much back in profit.

Why Bet SGP Parlays?

They Are Fun

Parlay betting, SGP betting, are very enjoyable bets to watch play out.

Playing an NFL parlay ticket each week allows us to risk a little bit of money, while still chasing a significant payout if all our legs cashed.

The bigger the ticket, the bigger the payout – even if we already know the more games we add the less likely we are to win.

Chasing big parlays doesn’t necessarily mean going all in on long-shots.

The beauty of parlays is that multiple bets add up – whether we have a mixture of favorites on our ticket or not.

The reality is, parlays are tough to win. But there is no denying that the entertainment factor of risking a little bit of money to win a lot of money is extremely high.

For this reason alone, NFL parlay betting will always be popular with sports bettors.

Bettors Have More Player Knowledge (DFS)

Daily Fantasy Sports had a 10-year head start on the sports betting industry and the knowledge and passion DFS players had for fantasy games doesn’t go away because sports betting is now legal.

However, Same Game Parlays are a form of betting that can reward a player with strong DFS knowledge.

Maybe a bettor has an understanding of how Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and the Miami Dolphins offense will perform.

Take that knowledge and turn it into an SGP ticket.

Maximize Your Bonus Bet

Never before has a sports bettor been able to receive so many welcome bonuses and promotional offers from sportsbooks.

Once the industry started to legalize across North America, the fight between the operators to earn our business became extremely intense.

One of the ways sportsbooks are trying to earn our business is by offering us generous welcome bonuses and promotional offers as loyal customers.

There are those who believe that a great way to spend your free bonus money is to really let it ride, and parlay it – turning a nice prize into a really nice prize.

Whether you chose to go the route of parlaying your bonus money or not, remember to take advantage of all bonuses and promotions each of the sportsbooks offer.

These can be looked at as real money – although it needs to be stated that A LOT of them come with stipulations regarding minimum bets that need to be made BEFORE you can sart withdrawing the money.

Always Shop Around

Shopping around for your Best Odds is the single greatest advantage a sports bettor has over the sportsbooks.

For traditional bets, this is usually a relatively straightforward exercise.

Odds are always posted at each online sportsbook, so a bettor can understand who offers the Best Odds by checking multiple sites.

However, when it comes to SGP pricing, each sportsbook has its own algorithm and pricing model.

The pricing model doesn’t go into effect until you have chosen multiple bets to partner together.

The final odds you will receive won’t be determined until all your bets have been added and the algorithm can understand the correlation between your selections.

This makes comparing odds for SGPs at each sportsbook a little bit more labor intensive because you will have to pre-build your parlay to see your final odds.

Although extra labor is involved, it is very much in the best interest of the bettor to go through this exercise with each operator and only bet where they can find their Best Odds.

The difference in pricing could range drastically and often be upwards of a 20% difference in ROI if an SGP were to come through.

An additional 20% on your ROI repeatedly is a big deal over time.