NFL Third Quarter ATS Betting

In the 2022 NFL season, the Carolina Panthers (7-10), Atlanta Falcons (7-10), and Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1) combined to win 18 games while losing 32 and tying one. (36% win percentage)

However, these same three teams had a 3rd QTR Point Spread record of 33-18. (66% cover percentage)

This tells us that bad teams can and do cover third-quarter point spreads and that there may be an opportunity for savvy bettors to find some value with this very niche NFL game prop bet.

Let’s dive in.

Betting NFL 3Q Point Spreads

The five teams listed in our table below are five of the higher-scoring teams in the NFL in 2023.

2023 NFL Points / QTR

Team	1st QTR	2nd QTR	3rd QTR	4th QTR
Miami	5.7	10.5	5.8	6.0
Dallas	7.2	9.7	4.3	8.9
San Francisco	5.8	8.8	6.1	7.8
Baltimore	6.1	8.5	5.6	7.2
Philadelphia	5.4	6.3	5.7	6.7
Averages	6.04	8.76	5.5	7.32

Looking at the Points / QTR table – several interesting takeaways jump out;

• The 2nd QTR is significantly more high-scoring than any other quarter
• The 2Q was the highest-scoring quarter for 4 of the 5 teams.
• The 3rd QTR is the lowest-scoring quarter
• The 3Q is the only quarter with two teams averaging 5.6 points OR LESS

This kind of information is interesting and could benefit us later, when discussing different NFL 3rd Quarter point spread strategies.

NFL Point Spread Betting – By QTR

WSH vs DAL – Example QTR Point Spreads

Team	1st Q	2nd Q	3rd Q	4th Q
Washington	+3.5 (-118)	+4.5 (-126)	+3.5 (-128)	+2.5 (+104)
Dallas	-3.5 (-104)	-4.5 (+104)	-3.5 (+104)	-2.5 (-128)

• The full-game point spread for this game was 12.5 points. (Dallas -12.5)
• If you add up the point spread for each quarter, you will see that they total 14 points, not 12.5. Sportsbooks like to set the QTR spread as a half number, eliminating the opportunity for a push
• This explains why the moneylines associated with each quarter are juiced towards the Commanders. (only the fourth quarter ML has WSH at (+) plus money)

NFL Point Spread Betting Tips

Betting 1st & 3rd QTR Spreads

The first and third quarters have some unique characteristics the second and fourth quarters don’t have

These characteristics help explain why they can’t compete in the second quarter from an overall scoring standpoint. 

Both the first and third quarters are started by a team kicking off. More often than not, this ball is kicked into the end zone, and a team will start at their 25-yard line.

In theory, the team starting with the ball in the second quarter is more likely in a better field position than the team that started the first quarter with the ball.

A better field position will obviously lead to more points.

The other interesting factor to consider is that there is no urgency to score points as the first and third quarters are set to expire

However, when the second quarter winds down, a team has to be conscious of the clock expiring or risk the half-ending without any points on their final drive.

Those may seem like subtle differences, but they impact the overall points scored by quarter over time.

Betting 2nd & 4th QTR Spreads

Once the second and fourth quarters end – so do any ongoing possessions. Teams must try for the endzone or a field goal attempt before the clock strikes zero.

That is a significant difference between the first and third quarters, where drives continue when the clocks expire.

There is also a significant difference between the second and fourth quarters, which helps explain why the second quarter stands alone as the highest-scoring quarter.

Late in the fourth quarter, a team winning by enough points is more concerned about ball possession and running the clock out than scoring points.

In the second quarter, teams are really only interested in trying to score whenever possible.

That is not the case for teams protecting a fourth-quarter lead.

Identifying The Best NFL Bets Today 

Loyal BestOdds.com users are already familiar with our NFL Betting Stats Hub

Whether you are betting on 3rd QTR point spreads or one of the many other NFL game props available, our Betting Stats Hub provides the data and analysis required to help bettors of all experiences make better decisions.

Many of us already understand that NFL sides and totals are some of the sharpest lines in the market and that sportsbooks spend a lot of time and resources ensuring those are as accurate as possible.

Where many recreational bettors have found an opportunity to compete is with some of the NFL game prop bets now available.

In reality, sportsbooks just don’t get the same kind of betting volume on a 3rd QTR point spread compared to the full-game point spread.

Where BestOdds.com can help is with our sport-specific Betting Stats Hub. 

Our goal is to provide the most comprehensive data for a large selection of prop bets in a format that makes it really easy for our users to identify great betting opportunities each day of the season.

How To Use NFL 3rd QTR Stats Page

Our 3rd QTR stats page breaks down every team’s current record ATS for the 3rd QTR only

Data that can be extremely difficult to find

It also provides 3rd QTR point spread stats broken down by home, road, and last four games.

The BestOdds.com NFL Betting Stats Hub is a fantastic resource for sports bettors looking for tough-to-find information for many of the niche NFL game props now being offered by online sportsbooks.

Check out our Highest Scoring Quarter stats page for even more stats and information on a niche NFL game prop.

Always Shop Around

WSH vs DAL – Example 2nd & 3rd QTR Spreads

Bets	DraftKings	FanDuel
2Q Spread – WSH	+3.5 | +105	+4.5 | -128
2Q Spread – DAL	-3.5 | -125	-4.5 | +106
3Q Spread – WSH	+3.5 | -130	+3.5 | -126
3Q Spread – DAL	-3.5 | +110	-3.5 | +104

Above are example second and third-quarter point spread odds for a Washington vs Dallas game.

As bettors, we see the point spreads offered by DraftKings and FanDuel are similar but different.

The +3.5 and +4.5 difference in the second quarter might not seem like a big deal, but it is something that needs our attention.

In NFL point spread betting, there are key numbers. Getting on the right side of a 7 point spread is a big deal because games commonly end with a seven-point difference.

The same thing for point spreads that are close to the key numbers of 3 and 10

The difference between a 3.5 and 4.5 spread in 2nd quarter point-spread betting is also a big deal

• A common end-of-quarter score is 7-3. The difference is obviously four points in that scenario
• An Underdog ticket that was +4.5 wins
• An Underdog ticket that was +3.5 does not.

There is always a reason to shop around for the Best Odds that support our decisions

It might be to get a better point spread number for an Underdog we want to bet on, or it could be to get a better Moneyline price for a bet we want to place.

If we aren’t shopping around to get the best odds available each time we place a wager, we just aren’t giving ourselves the best opportunity to win long-term.