NFL Player Prop Bets Week 1 2024

It’s that time of year again: Football season. Barbecue pits will be lit, the leaves will be falling and the pigskin will be flying. Be sure to soak in every moment because it flashes by in the blink of an eye.

With the NFL back in full swing, we’ll provide you with player prop bets every week.

Week 1 wagers can be a little tricky since there isn’t any data for this season.

There have also been a plethora of personnel changes around the league, including new coaches, players, and coordinators.

Nevertheless, we have two picks below, containing lines we view as favorable.

Good luck this season. Remember to bet responsibly, manage your bankroll carefully and never wager more than you can afford.

Week 1 Player Props

The player prop tips below are for rushing attempts and passing attempts.

Kenneth Walker over 15.5 rushing attempts (-135 at Bet365)

Seattle’s bell cow at running back would’ve easily cracked 1,000 yards last season and possibly made the Pro Bowl had he not dealt with injuries on and off throughout the year.

Walker eclipsed 15.5 rushing attempts in 9-of-15 (60%) games in 2023. Before dealing with injury, the Michigan State product opened the season with 17 or more carries in five of his first six outings.

He also closed the season with 16+ carries in three of the final four contests.

As of Wednesday, Sept. 4, the Seahawks were 6-point favorites and as low as -275 on the moneyline against their opponents, the Denver Broncos.

Bo Nix, Denver’s rookie signal caller, will be making his NFL regular season debut against Seattle. We all know how rookie quarterback debuts historically go (very poorly).

It will also be in one of the NFL’s most hostile territories: In Seattle at Lumen Field in front of the 12th Man.

With the Broncos being such favorites, a positive game script is extremely likely for Seattle, which gives Walker III plenty of opportunities to earn carries.

Walker’s carries in 2023 when Seattle won by 6+ points

• Week 2 @ Detroit: 17 carries
• Week 3 vs. Carolina: 18 carries
• Week 4 @ New York (Giants): 17 carries
• Week 7 vs. Arizona: 26 carries

Walker was 4/4 (16+ carries) in games won by six or more points and recorded 16 or more rush attempts in 8/9 (88.88%) games in which Seattle won.

It’s a new season, so there have obviously been changes to Denver’s run defense, but a year ago, the unit ranked third-worst in the NFL, allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game.

It’s hard to completely “180” after just one season, so if we see anything similar, it bodes extremely well for Walker and will lead to Seattle feeding him rush attempts.

Some of the top analytical models in the fantasy and betting industry also project Walker to surpass 15.5 carries on Sunday. Let’s take a look at them below.

Model projections for Walker’s carries vs. Denver

• ESPN: 18
• FantasyPros: 17.3
• BettingPros: 16.8
• Numberfire: 16.75
• Yahoo: 14.5

With Seattle likely to defeat Denver and owning the home-field factor, the over 15.5 carries at Bet365 priced at -135 is certainly a bargain.

Especially with many other bookmakers, such as ESPNBet, listing his total at 16.5 carries with odds of -110.

Bryce Young 30 or more pass attempts (-145 at Bet365)

This line intrigued me because last year, Young’s situation in Carolina was dreadful. He was without weapons and his head coach, Frank Reich, was fired after 11 games.

The former Heisman Trophy winner took a lot of criticism for going 2-15, but his only decent weapon was 34-year-old slot receiver Adam Thielen.

This isn’t a knock on Thielen, who is still an extremely solid player and an excellent route runner with great hands.

During the offseason, the front office traded for Pro Bowl wide receiver Diontae Johnson (formerly a Steeler) and drafted wideout Xavier Legette with the 32nd pick in the first round.

The South Carolina product has a lot of potential. He’s 6’1, 220 lbs and runs a 4.39 40-yard dash.

Now, Young has weapons on the outside along with Thielen in the slot. New head coach Dave Canales and first-year offensive coordinator Brad Idzik are probably excited to see what the former national champion can do now that he has an arsenal at his disposal.

I’m predicting they’ll let him rip it on Sunday.

Last year, Young recorded 30+ pass attempts in 13/16 contests (81.25%). The Panthers will play away to the New Orleans Saints as 4.5-point underdogs this week.

When on the road in 2023, Young threw 30 or more passes in 8-of-8 outings.

The Alabama product also had 30+ pass attempts in 86.66% (13/15) of losses. This is encouraging to see from a game script perspective since the Panthers are nearly 2/1 underdogs (+180).

According to StatMuse, Young averaged 35.63 pass attempts on the road and 32.94 for the entire season.

In his two games against New Orleans last campaign, Young recorded 33 passing attempts during Week 1 (at home) and 36 in Week 14 (away). Teams who faced the Saints averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game in 2023.

Top models project the 2023 No. 1 overall pick to also meet the passing attempt mark come Sunday.

Model projections for Young’s pass attempts @ New Orleans

• ESPN: 34
• FantasyPros: 33.1
• Numberfire: 31.86

The -145 odds offered by Bet365 are fair for the “safer” number of attempts (30).

Other sportsbooks, such as BetRivers, list him at -117 but with a total of 30.5. UnderDog and PrizePicks also set his total at 30.5 with odds of -137 for the over.

If you’re looking for odds or parlay picks, check out our expert articles:

• Week 1 Odds
• Week 1 Parlays