NFL Player Prop Bets Week 11

Week 10 of the NFL season ended with the Miami Dolphins (3-6) winning 23-15 against the Los Angeles Rams (4-5) on Monday.

The Dolphins are a long shot to make the postseason, but they will be interesting to watch since their starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, is healthy again.

Week 11 will start on Thursday, with the Washington Commanders (7-3) traveling to Philadelphia to face their division rivals, the Eagles (7-2).

Sunday will be full of action thanks to 13 games on the schedule. In this player props article, we’ll provide two tips for the early slate.

The players included are Colts’ running back Jonathan Taylor and Lions’ quarterback Jared Goff.

Remember to bet responsibly and keep a careful eye on your bankroll.

Week 11 Player Props

The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing. They were also shopped across all legal U.S. sportsbooks.

Jonathan Taylor over 10.5 receiving yards at Jets (-110 at BetMGM)

Indy’s star running back will likely be expected to make more plays and help move the chains this week since veteran quarterback Joe Flacco is being benched for Anthony Richardson in what has become a carousel.

Taylor has eclipsed 10.5 receiving yards in 5/7 (71.42%) contests this campaign. In games Richardson started, he’s gone over the number in 5/6 (83.33%).

The Wisconsin product is averaging 15.43 receiving yards per game this season and has been targeted four or more times in 4/7 (57.14%) outings.

He’s also recorded 20 or more receiving yards three times and has averaged 16.66 receiving yards in contests Richardson has started.

Taylor is involved in the passing game and has run 19.14 routes per game. He’s also had a 14.9% target share through the air, which bodes well for him to surpass 10.5 receiving yards on Sunday.

This week, the Colts are four-point underdogs away to the Jets. If oddsmakers are accurate, Indianapolis will employ a come-from-behind pass-heavy game script, benefiting Taylor’s line.

The Jets have been shredded through the air this season by opposing running backs. They’re surrendering 3.8 receptions and 34.20 yards per game to their opponents’ running back rooms.

They’ve allowed 10 running backs through 10 weeks to surpass the 10.5 receiving-yard mark.

RBs/FBs with more than 10.5 rec yds against the Jets

Week/Opponent	RB/FB	Receptions	Targets	Receiving Yards
Week 1 at SF	Kyle Juszczyk	2	3	40
Week 2 at TEN	Tony Pollard	5	6	40
Week 2 at TEN	Tyjae Spears	2	2	11
Week 5 at MIN	Aaron Jones	1	1	24
Week 5 at MIN	Myles Gaskin	1	1	11
Week 6 vs. BUF	Ray Davis	3	3	55
Week 7 at PIT	Jaylen Warren	3	2	15
Week 8 at NE	R. Stevenson	3	3	17
Week 10 at ARI	James Conner	5	5	80
Week 10 at ARI	Trey Benson	2	2	25

The -110 odds offered by BetMGM hold value thanks to other bookmakers such as DraftKings (-115) and Caesars (-123) having them more juiced.

At the time of writing, bet365 had identical odds and the same line as BetMGM.

Many top fantasy football and NFL betting projection models also predict that Taylor will record over 10.5 receiving yards.

Model Projections for Taylor’s Receiving Yards at NYJ

• Action Network: 24
• ESPN: 19
• FantasyPros: 16.3
• RotoWire: 14.16
• Numberfire: 13.6
• BettingPros: 12.8

Jared Goff under 29.5 pass attempts vs. JAC (-125 at Caesars)

The Lions’ signal caller exceeded 29.5 pass attempts for only the second time this season with 30 attempts in Detroit’s 26-23 comeback win over Houston on Sunday.

In this campaign, Goff has attempted less than 29.5 passes in 7/9 (77.77%) contests and is averaging 26.77 pass attempts per game.

His average is a little skewed because he attempted 55 passes in Week 2. His next highest was 30 against Houston.

The Lions are 8-1, and the two times Goff exceeded 29.5 attempts, Detroit faced a losing game script. In Week 2, the team fell to the Bucs 20-16 as the Cal Berkeley product threw the ball 55 times.

Last week against the Texans, Detroit trailed for most of the contest, including 23-7 at halftime and 23-13 after three quarters, which promoted a pass-heavy game script.

Lions’ offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, one of the best play callers in the NFL, has taken the pressure off Goff during the team’s eight wins.

In all eight victories, he has averaged just 23.25 pass attempts per game.

This week, Detroit is a heavy 14-point favorite against Jacksonville (2-8).

The Jaguars will be without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence and will start back up Mac Jones for the second straight week.

If oddsmakers’ predictions are close to accurate, it bodes well for Goff to hit the under since he is averaging 20 pass attempts when the Lions win by double-digits.

He’s also averaging 20.33 pass attempts during wins at home.

Goff Pass Attempts in Wins at Home

• Week 1 vs. LAR: 28 attempts
• Week 4 vs. SEA: 18 attempts
• Week 8 vs. TEN: 15 attempts

The Jaguars have allowed three of the past five quarterbacks they’ve faced to go under the 29.5 pass attempt mark.

Minnesota’s Sam Darnold attempted 38 passes last week, but it was largely due to falling behind for most of the afternoon after throwing three picks.

This line of under 29.5 pass attempts is listed at -125 at Caesars. Many other bookmakers are listing his total at 28.5.

Model Projections for Goff’s Pass Attempts vs. JAC

• BettingPros: 26.8
• ESPN: 27
• Action Network: 27.5
• FantasyPros: 28.8
• Numberfire: 29.79

Also, check out weekly NFL odds and parlay picks at our dedicated articles here:

• Week 11 Parlays
• Week 11 Odds